Why 95% of Investors Can’t Beat the S&P 500 (and What Actually Helps)
Charlie Munger put the odds at roughly 95% against. The data on professionals and individuals points the same way. The reasons are structural, and most of them can be fixed.
The Nasdaq-100 has 101 stocks as of Oct 20, 2026 (100 companies). Here is each one’s total return over the past 1 and 5 years against the S&P 500 (+15.7% and +90.0% to Sep 30, 2026), with its sector and a link to its full risk profile.
Every Nasdaq‑100 member as of Oct 20, 2026, largest company first, with its total return including dividends over the past 1 and 5 years to Sep 30, 2026. The S&P 500 returned +15.7% over 1 year and +90.0% over 5 years; the Nasdaq‑100 (QQQ) returned +23.5% over 1 year. “vs S&P 500” is the gap in percentage points. A stock that has not traded for the whole period shows a dash.
| Ticker | Company | Sector | 1‑yr return | vs S&P 500 | 5‑yr return | vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | Technology | +22.4% | +6.7 pts | +1,004% | +914.4 pts |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | Technology | +31.2% | +15.5 pts | +141.1% | +51.1 pts |
| GOOGL · GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | Communication Services | +41.7% | +26.0 pts | +159.5% | +69.5 pts |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | Technology | −0.2% | −15.9 pts | +89.6% | −0.4 pts |
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | +13.5% | −2.2 pts | +51.7% | −38.3 pts |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | Communication Services | −1.1% | −16.8 pts | +115.3% | +25.3 pts |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | Technology | +6.9% | −8.8 pts | +688.5% | +598.5 pts |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | −20.2% | −35.9 pts | +37.3% | −52.7 pts |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | Technology | +537.5% | +521.8 pts | +1,437% | +1,347 pts |
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | Consumer Defensive | +1.4% | −14.3 pts | +137.5% | +47.5 pts |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | Technology | +278.1% | +262.4 pts | +494.5% | +404.5 pts |
| ASML | ASML Holding N.V. | Technology | +88.1% | +72.4 pts | +154.6% | +64.6 pts |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | Technology | +258.4% | +242.7 pts | +145.0% | +55.0 pts |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | Technology | +2.5% | −13.2 pts | +678.1% | +588.1 pts |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | Consumer Defensive | −1.2% | −16.9 pts | +113.4% | +23.4 pts |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems, Inc. | Technology | +59.3% | +43.6 pts | +125.6% | +35.6 pts |
| LRCX | Lam Research Corporation | Technology | +146.0% | +130.3 pts | +506.1% | +416.1 pts |
| AMAT | Applied Materials, Inc. | Technology | +151.2% | +135.5 pts | +314.1% | +224.1 pts |
| NFLX | Netflix, Inc. | Communication Services | −42.0% | −57.7 pts | +14.0% | −76.0 pts |
| PANW | Palo Alto Networks, Inc. | Technology | +95.1% | +79.4 pts | +397.7% | +307.7 pts |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | Technology | +55.6% | +39.9 pts | +67.1% | −22.9 pts |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | Technology | +104.7% | +89.0 pts | — | — |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | Healthcare | +52.6% | +36.9 pts | +130.2% | +40.2 pts |
| CRWD | CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | Technology | +115.9% | +100.2 pts | +330.8% | +240.8 pts |
| LIN | Linde plc | Basic Materials | +0.6% | −15.1 pts | +72.0% | −18.0 pts |
| SHOP | Shopify Inc. | Technology | −0.2% | −15.9 pts | +9.4% | −80.6 pts |
| KLAC | KLA Corporation | Technology | +80.7% | +65.0 pts | +482.8% | +392.8 pts |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | Technology | +214.9% | +199.2 pts | +346.1% | +256.1 pts |
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | Technology | +1,451% | +1,435 pts | — | — |
| ADI | Analog Devices, Inc. | Technology | +62.5% | +46.8 pts | +156.0% | +66.0 pts |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | Healthcare | +35.9% | +20.2 pts | +151.9% | +61.9 pts |
| QCOM | QUALCOMM Incorporated | Technology | +11.9% | −3.8 pts | +57.7% | −32.3 pts |
| PEP | PepsiCo, Inc. | Consumer Defensive | −8.1% | −23.8 pts | −3.0% | −93.0 pts |
| TMUS | T-Mobile US, Inc. | Communication Services | −30.8% | −46.5 pts | +33.5% | −56.5 pts |
| ISRG | Intuitive Surgical, Inc. | Healthcare | −9.1% | −24.8 pts | +22.7% | −67.3 pts |
| STX | Seagate Technology Holdings plc | Technology | +292.4% | +276.7 pts | +1,186% | +1,096 pts |
| WDC | Western Digital Corporation | Technology | +279.0% | +263.3 pts | +970.1% | +880.1 pts |
| VRTX | Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated | Healthcare | +33.5% | +17.8 pts | +188.2% | +98.2 pts |
| FTNT | Fortinet, Inc. | Technology | +112.6% | +96.9 pts | +206.0% | +116.0 pts |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | −24.3% | −40.0 pts | +74.8% | −15.2 pts |
| ADP | Automatic Data Processing, Inc. | Technology | −10.8% | −26.5 pts | +42.3% | −47.7 pts |
| PDD | PDD Holdings Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | −41.0% | −56.7 pts | −14.0% | −104.0 pts |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corporation | Consumer Cyclical | +13.2% | −2.5 pts | −4.7% | −94.7 pts |
| ABNB | Airbnb, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | +32.3% | +16.6 pts | −4.2% | −94.2 pts |
| MAR | Marriott International, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | +37.7% | +22.0 pts | +150.5% | +60.5 pts |
| ADBE | Adobe Inc. | Technology | −32.0% | −47.7 pts | −58.3% | −148.3 pts |
| DDOG | Datadog, Inc. | Technology | +92.3% | +76.6 pts | +93.7% | +3.7 pts |
| MELI | MercadoLibre, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | −26.0% | −41.7 pts | +2.9% | −87.1 pts |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | Utilities | −22.5% | −38.2 pts | — | — |
| MNST | Monster Beverage Corporation | Consumer Defensive | +23.6% | +7.9 pts | +87.4% | −2.6 pts |
| Ticker | Company | Sector | 1‑yr return | vs S&P 500 | 5‑yr return | vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | Moderna, Inc. | Healthcare | +645.5% | +629.8 pts | −50.0% | −140.0 pts |
| APP | AppLovin Corporation | Technology | −59.6% | −75.3 pts | +301.3% | +211.3 pts |
| CDNS | Cadence Design Systems, Inc. | Technology | −6.0% | −21.7 pts | +118.0% | +28.0 pts |
| CSX | CSX Corporation | Industrials | +32.6% | +16.9 pts | +67.4% | −22.6 pts |
| SNPS | Synopsys, Inc. | Technology | −11.8% | −27.5 pts | +45.3% | −44.7 pts |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | Technology | −59.4% | −75.1 pts | −47.2% | −137.2 pts |
| CTAS | Cintas Corporation | Industrials | −4.3% | −20.0 pts | +114.2% | +24.2 pts |
| DASH | DoorDash, Inc. | Communication Services | −32.5% | −48.2 pts | −10.9% | −100.9 pts |
| MDLZ | Mondelez International, Inc. | Consumer Defensive | −5.8% | −21.5 pts | +11.9% | −78.1 pts |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Healthcare | +35.6% | +19.9 pts | +26.5% | −63.5 pts |
| CMCSA | Comcast Corporation | Communication Services | −28.4% | −44.1 pts | −55.2% | −145.2 pts |
| ROST | Ross Stores, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | +53.8% | +38.1 pts | +125.6% | +35.6 pts |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | Technology | +496.9% | +481.2 pts | +1,063% | +972.6 pts |
| ORLY | O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. | Consumer Cyclical | −20.8% | −36.5 pts | +109.6% | +19.6 pts |
| AEP | American Electric Power Company, Inc. | Utilities | +7.9% | −7.8 pts | +73.6% | −16.4 pts |
| HON | Honeywell International Inc. | Industrials | −49.9% | −65.6 pts | −50.3% | −140.3 pts |
| MPWR | Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. | Technology | +46.9% | +31.2 pts | +187.5% | +97.5 pts |
| FAST | Fastenal Company | Industrials | +2.6% | −13.1 pts | +115.3% | +25.3 pts |
| NXPI | NXP Semiconductors N.V. | Technology | +5.3% | −10.4 pts | +31.9% | −58.1 pts |
| PCAR | PACCAR Inc | Industrials | +14.1% | −1.6 pts | +148.0% | +58.0 pts |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy, Inc. | Energy | +30.8% | +15.1 pts | +138.7% | +48.7 pts |
| BKR | Baker Hughes Company | Energy | +14.0% | −1.7 pts | +148.0% | +58.0 pts |
| MSTR | Strategy Inc | Technology | −52.5% | −68.2 pts | +164.7% | +74.7 pts |
| TER | Teradyne, Inc. | Technology | +191.8% | +176.1 pts | +274.2% | +184.2 pts |
| ADSK | Autodesk, Inc. | Technology | −34.2% | −49.9 pts | −26.7% | −116.7 pts |
| ALAB | Astera Labs, Inc. | Technology | +81.8% | +66.1 pts | — | — |
| CCEP | Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC | Consumer Defensive | +15.5% | −0.2 pts | +115.7% | +25.7 pts |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings, Inc. | Financial Services | −21.3% | −37.0 pts | −79.7% | −169.7 pts |
| WDAY | Workday, Inc. | Technology | −20.9% | −36.6 pts | −23.8% | −113.8 pts |
| XEL | Xcel Energy Inc. | Utilities | −11.3% | −27.0 pts | +30.3% | −59.7 pts |
| KDP | Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. | Consumer Defensive | +21.0% | +5.3 pts | 0.0% | −90.0 pts |
| TRI | Thomson Reuters Corporation | Industrials | −35.7% | −51.4 pts | −4.6% | −94.6 pts |
| IDXX | IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. | Healthcare | −18.3% | −34.0 pts | −16.0% | −106.0 pts |
| EXC | Exelon Corporation | Utilities | −8.7% | −24.4 pts | +37.4% | −52.6 pts |
| NBIS | Nebius Group N.V. | Technology | +110.1% | +94.4 pts | — | — |
| MCHP | Microchip Technology Incorporated | Technology | +24.3% | +8.6 pts | +13.0% | −77.0 pts |
| PAYX | Paychex, Inc. | Industrials | −19.7% | −35.4 pts | +1.3% | −88.7 pts |
| ODFL | Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. | Industrials | +23.9% | +8.2 pts | +24.4% | −65.6 pts |
| TTWO | Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. | Technology | −19.7% | −35.4 pts | +34.7% | −55.3 pts |
| ROP | Roper Technologies, Inc. | Technology | −29.7% | −45.4 pts | −19.6% | −109.6 pts |
| FER | Ferrovial SE | Industrials | −5.8% | −21.5 pts | +106.2% | +16.2 pts |
| CRWV | CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock | Technology | −36.3% | −52.0 pts | — | — |
| AXON | Axon Enterprise, Inc. | Industrials | −41.1% | −56.8 pts | +141.4% | +51.4 pts |
| DXCM | DexCom, Inc. | Healthcare | +28.2% | +12.5 pts | −36.9% | −126.9 pts |
| GEHC | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | Healthcare | −12.8% | −28.5 pts | — | — |
| RKLB | Rocket Lab Corporation | Industrials | +45.4% | +29.7 pts | +332.0% | +242.0 pts |
| ALNY | Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | Healthcare | −45.9% | −61.6 pts | +30.7% | −59.3 pts |
| CPRT | Copart, Inc. | Industrials | −39.3% | −55.0 pts | −21.3% | −111.3 pts |
| HONA | Honeywell Aerospace Inc | — | — | — | — | — |
| SPCX | Space Exploration Technologies Corp | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ticker | Company | 1‑yr return | vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | +1,451% | +1,435 pts |
| MRNA | Moderna, Inc. | +645.5% | +629.8 pts |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | +537.5% | +521.8 pts |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | +496.9% | +481.2 pts |
| STX | Seagate Technology Holdings plc | +292.4% | +276.7 pts |
| WDC | Western Digital Corporation | +279.0% | +263.3 pts |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | +278.1% | +262.4 pts |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | +258.4% | +242.7 pts |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | +214.9% | +199.2 pts |
| TER | Teradyne, Inc. | +191.8% | +176.1 pts |
| Ticker | Company | 1‑yr return | vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| APP | AppLovin Corporation | −59.6% | −75.3 pts |
| INTU | Intuit Inc. | −59.4% | −75.1 pts |
| MSTR | Strategy Inc | −52.5% | −68.2 pts |
| HON | Honeywell International Inc. | −49.9% | −65.6 pts |
| ALNY | Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | −45.9% | −61.6 pts |
| NFLX | Netflix, Inc. | −42.0% | −57.7 pts |
| AXON | Axon Enterprise, Inc. | −41.1% | −56.8 pts |
| PDD | PDD Holdings Inc. | −41.0% | −56.7 pts |
| CPRT | Copart, Inc. | −39.3% | −55.0 pts |
| CRWV | CoreWeave, Inc. Class A Common Stock | −36.3% | −52.0 pts |
| Sector | Members | Beat the S&P 500 (1 yr) | Median 1‑yr return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 45 | 27 of 45 | +55.6% |
| Industrials | 12 | 3 of 12 | −4.3% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 10 | 3 of 10 | +13.2% |
| Healthcare | 10 | 6 of 10 | +33.5% |
| Consumer Defensive | 7 | 2 of 7 | +1.4% |
| Communication Services | 6 | 1 of 6 | −28.4% |
| Utilities | 4 | 0 of 4 | −8.7% |
| Energy | 2 | 1 of 2 | +30.8% |
| Basic Materials | 1 | 0 of 1 | +0.6% |
| Financial Services | 1 | 0 of 1 | −21.3% |
Counts are companies; a company with two share classes counts once.
Exent has no usable price history yet for 2 members, so they have no page: HONA (Honeywell Aerospace Inc); SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp). These are recent listings, spin‑offs or ticker changes; they are counted in the 101 above.
Members as of Oct 20, 2026. Total returns use month‑end prices with dividends reinvested, to Sep 30, 2026; each stock’s page has its 3‑ and 10‑year record, risk, crash history and analyst coverage. These are today’s members: companies that left the index are not in the list, so past returns here look better than those of the index’s members at the time (survivorship bias). See also the S&P 500 and all stocks Exent covers.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
101 as of Oct 20, 2026: 100 companies, because Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL, GOOG) has two share classes in it.
43 of the 98 members with a full year of prices (44%) returned more than the S&P 500’s +15.7% in the 12 months to Sep 30, 2026, including dividends. 41 beat the Nasdaq-100 itself (QQQ, +23.5%).
SNDK (Sandisk Corporation), with a total return of +1,451% in the 12 months to Sep 30, 2026, against +15.7% for the S&P 500. The worst was APP (AppLovin Corporation), −59.6%.
By market value, NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) at $5.23 trillion as of Oct 22, 2026.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.