How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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PDD Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
PDD Holdings Inc., consumer cyclical (market value $115.9 billion), a Nasdaq‑100 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
Key takeaways
- PDD returned −14.0% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +90.0% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.15 against 0.67 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −61.4% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
- Five‑year volatility was 66.8% and beta −0.04.
- 20 analysts rated it in the past year; 50% of their latest calls were Buy.
In this article
- Did PDD beat the S&P 500?
- PDD returns by year vs the S&P 500
- PDD risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How PDD behaved in past crashes
- What moves with PDD, and what doesn’t
- What Wall Street analysts say about PDD
- Latest PDD upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- The right benchmark for PDD
- Other consumer cyclical stocks
- Data and methodology
Did PDD beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, PDD Holdings Inc. (PDD) returned −14.0% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 104.0 percentage points, or −3.0% a year against +13.7%.
| Period | PDD | S&P 500 | PDD per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −41.0% | +15.7% | −41.0% | +15.7% | Lagged |
| 3 years | −20.5% | +85.0% | −7.4% | +22.8% | Lagged |
| 5 years | −14.0% | +90.0% | −3.0% | +13.7% | Lagged |
| Period | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| PDD | −41.0% | −20.5% | −14.0% |
| S&P 500 | +15.7% | +85.0% | +90.0% |
| PDD per year | −41.0% | −7.4% | −3.0% |
| S&P 500 per year | +15.7% | +22.8% | +13.7% |
| Result | Lagged | Lagged | Lagged |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
PDD is in the Nasdaq‑100 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.
PDD returns by year vs the S&P 500
PDD beat the S&P 500 in 4 of the 7 full calendar years shown.
| Year | PDD | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | −31.3% | +12.7% | −44.0% |
| 2025 | +16.9% | +17.7% | −0.8% |
| 2024 | −33.7% | +24.9% | −58.6% |
| 2023 | +79.4% | +26.2% | +53.2% |
| 2022 | +39.9% | −18.2% | +58.1% |
| 2021 | −67.2% | +28.7% | −95.9% |
| 2020 | +369.8% | +18.3% | +351.5% |
| 2019 | +68.5% | +31.2% | +37.3% |
PDD risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, PDD had a Sharpe ratio of 0.15 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 58.4% and its beta −0.04: it tended to move about −0.0× as much as the market.
| Metric | PDD | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −3.0% | +13.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 58.4% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.15 | 0.67 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.27 | 1.08 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −55.8% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | −0.04 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
How PDD behaved in past crashes
PDD’s deepest fall in the crises below was −61.4% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | PDD | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −15.7% | −34.1% | −$15,710 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −61.4% | −25.4% | −$61,390 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −28.4% | −19.0% | −$28,450 |
| Window | PDD max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −39.9% |
| Last 3 years | −47.3% |
| Last 5 years | −81.8% |
| Last 10 years | −87.4% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with PDD, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, PDD’s correlation with the S&P 500 was −0.01, with the Nasdaq‑100 −0.06, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.21 and with gold (GLD) 0.14.
Adding a 5% PDD position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.1%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| FTNT | −0.42 | BLK | 0.26 |
| LLY | −0.24 | UBER | 0.24 |
| BRK-B | −0.20 | BA | 0.24 |
| MO | −0.19 | T | 0.23 |
| ISRG | −0.18 | AMT | 0.23 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
What Wall Street analysts say about PDD
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 20 analysts published 94 ratings on PDD. Their latest calls were 50% Buy, 45% Hold and 5% Sell. 3 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $143.41 (range $109.72–$203.98), +82.2% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.7★ | 32.0% | ||
| Thomas Chong | Jefferies | 4.3★ | 39.1% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on PDD are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
Latest PDD upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 10 | Target cut Hold | Andre Chang |
| Aug 27 | Target raised Hold | Joyce Ju |
| Aug 25 | Target raised Buy | Alicia Yap |
| Aug 25 | Target cut Buy | Ronald Keung |
| Aug 25 | Target cut Buy | Saiyi He |
| Aug 25 | Upgrade Buy | Julia Pan |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on PDD in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
The right benchmark for PDD
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For PDD that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other consumer cyclical stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | +51.7% | 36.3% |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | +37.3% | 58.6% |
| HD | The Home Depot, Inc. | −3.1% | 24.6% |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | +6.1% | 17.2% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | +114.9% | 22.2% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | +74.8% | 33.1% |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corporation | −4.7% | 31.3% |
| LOW | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | −0.5% | 26.1% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
See what PDD does to your own portfolio
- Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
- Exent replays your whole portfolio, PDD included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
- It finds holdings that move together with PDD and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
- Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
No. PDD returned −14.0% (−3.0% a year) over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +90.0% (+13.7% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, PDD (PDD Holdings Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is in the Nasdaq-100.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, PDD (PDD Holdings Inc.) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
PDD fell −15.7% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
PDD fell −61.4% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, PDD’s Sharpe ratio was 0.15 and its Sortino ratio 0.27, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.
PDD’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 66.8%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of −0.04.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with PDD over the last 60 months were FTNT (−0.42), LLY (−0.24), BRK-B (−0.20). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.21 and with gold (GLD) 0.14.
What would PDD do to your portfolio?
Exent replays your whole portfolio through the same crashes, finds holdings that move together and compares you with a risk‑matched benchmark. Upload a screenshot; results in about a minute.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.