Tesla, Inc., consumer cyclical (market value $1.38 trillion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) returned +37.3% including dividends, versus +89.1% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 51.8 percentage points, or +6.5% a year against +13.6%.
| Period | TSLA | S&P 500 | TSLA per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −20.2% | +15.1% | −20.2% | +15.1% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +41.8% | +84.1% | +12.3% | +22.6% | Lagged |
| 5 years | +37.3% | +89.1% | +6.5% | +13.6% | Lagged |
| 10 years | +2,509% | +310.7% | +38.6% | +15.2% | Beat |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
TSLA beat the S&P 500 in 6 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | TSLA | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | −21.1% | +12.1% | −33.2% |
| 2025 | +11.4% | +17.7% | −6.3% |
| 2024 | +62.5% | +24.9% | +37.6% |
| 2023 | +101.7% | +26.2% | +75.5% |
| 2022 | −65.0% | −18.2% | −46.8% |
| 2021 | +49.8% | +28.7% | +21.1% |
| 2020 | +743.4% | +18.3% | +725.1% |
| 2019 | +25.7% | +31.2% | −5.5% |
| 2018 | +6.9% | −4.6% | +11.5% |
| 2017 | +45.7% | +21.7% | +24.0% |
Over 5 years, TSLA had a Sharpe ratio of 0.34 against 0.69 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 61.2% and its beta 1.90: it tended to move about 1.9× as much as the market.
| Metric | TSLA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +6.5% | +13.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 61.2% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.34 | 0.69 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.58 | 1.10 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −67.7% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.90 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
TSLA’s deepest fall in the crises below was −60.6% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), against −34.1% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | TSLA | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −21.6% | −20.2% | −$21,620 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −60.6% | −34.1% | −$60,630 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −47.6% | −25.4% | −$47,640 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −38.5% | −19.0% | −$38,470 |
| Window | TSLA max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −29.9% |
| Last 3 years | −53.8% |
| Last 5 years | −73.6% |
| Last 10 years | −73.6% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, TSLA’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.49, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.61, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.27 and with gold (GLD) 0.02.
Adding a 5% TSLA position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 16.6%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMGN | −0.26 | APP | 0.58 |
| KO | −0.23 | PLTR | 0.55 |
| VZ | −0.21 | NET | 0.53 |
| PM | −0.21 | AAPL | 0.50 |
| T | −0.20 | AMZN | 0.49 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 42 analysts published 628 ratings on TSLA. Their latest calls were 39% Buy, 42% Hold and 18% Sell. 15 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $421.27 (range $119.00–$600.00), +10.9% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Stein | Truist Financial | 5.0★ | 63.3% |
| Vijay Rakesh | Mizuho Securities | 5.0★ | 62.6% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. The live view, including the median target of only the top‑rated analysts, is in Exent Stocks Radar.
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For TSLA that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | +51.7% | 36.3% |
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Yes. TSLA returned +2,509% (+38.6% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +310.7% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
TSLA fell −60.6% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
TSLA fell −47.6% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, TSLA’s Sharpe ratio was 0.34 and its Sortino ratio 0.58, versus 0.69 and 1.10 for the S&P 500.
TSLA’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 58.6%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.90.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with TSLA over the last 60 months were AMGN (−0.26), KO (−0.23), VZ (−0.21). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.27 and with gold (GLD) 0.02.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.