Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
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Do Analyst Upgrades Move Stocks? What Happened Next, 2019–2026
Upgrades came with an average move of +2.5% around the call and downgrades −3.0%. What happened over the next one and three months, whether top‑rated analysts moved stocks more, and which stocks analysts forecast best.
Key takeaways
- Across 11,514 analyst upgrades of US stocks from Jan 1, 2019 to Sep 15, 2026, the stock rose 2.5% on average from the close before the call to the close after it (2.3 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500), and it rose in 70.2% of cases.
- Downgrades worked the other way: the stock fell 3.0% on average around 10,700 downgrades (2019 to Sep 15, 2026) and rose in only 31.0% of cases.
- Three months after an upgrade the stock was 3.4 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 on average and had beaten it in 51.9% of cases; three months after a downgrade it was 1.6 percentage points behind the S&P 500 (40.6% beat it), for calls from 2019 to Sep 15, 2026.
- Upgrades from 5-star analysts (4.5 stars or more in Exent’s ranking) moved stocks more than upgrades from analysts outside the ranked 1,121: +3.7% against +2.3% around the call, across 971 and 6,582 upgrades (2019 to Sep 15, 2026).
- Of 794 US stocks with 100 or more analyst price targets, targets were reached within 12 months most often on McKesson (MCK), at 99.2% of 373, and least often on BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN), at 23.0%; the median stock was 68.6%, data as of Oct 20, 2026.
In this article
- Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
- What happens to a stock in the 3 months after an upgrade?
- Do upgrades from top‑rated analysts move stocks more?
- Has the upgrade effect changed over the years?
- Which stocks move most on analyst upgrades?
- Which stocks do analysts forecast best and worst?
- How can investors read an analyst upgrade?
- Method and caveats
Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
Yes, on average. Across 11,514 analyst upgrades of US stocks from Jan 1, 2019 to Sep 15, 2026, the stock rose 2.5% on average from the close before the call to the close after it (2.3 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500), and it rose in 70.2% of cases. Downgrades worked the other way: the stock fell 3.0% on average around 10,700 downgrades (2019 to Sep 15, 2026) and rose in only 31.0% of cases.
+2.5%Average move around an upgrade11,514 upgrades
−3.0%Average move around a downgrade10,700 downgrades
+0.6%Average move when coverage starts13,834 initiations
The typical upgrade moved less than the average: the median move was +1.6%, because a minority of large jumps pull the average up. The window runs from the close before the call to the close after it, so it catches calls published before the open and after the close. By the time most investors read about an upgrade, much of that move has already happened.
When an analyst starts covering a stock (an initiation), the reaction was smaller: the stock rose 0.6% on average across 13,834 initiations, since a new rating says less about a change of view. For what an upgrade is and how it is made, see analyst upgrades explained.
What happens to a stock in the 3 months after an upgrade?
On average it kept ahead of the market: three months after an upgrade, the stock was 3.4 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500, and 51.9% of upgraded stocks had beaten the index. Three months after a downgrade, the stock was 1.6 percentage points behind the S&P 500 and 40.6% had beaten it. All figures are the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the same window.
| Call | Around the call | 1 month | 3 months | Beat the S&P 500 at 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades (11,514) | +2.3% | +2.8% | +3.4% | 51.9% |
| Downgrades (10,700) | −3.0% | −2.7% | −1.6% | 40.6% |
| New coverage (13,834) | +0.5% | +0.8% | +1.2% | 47.1% |
| Call | Upgrades (11,514) | Downgrades (10,700) | New coverage (13,834) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Around the call | +2.3% | −3.0% | +0.5% |
| 1 month | +2.8% | −2.7% | +0.8% |
| 3 months | +3.4% | −1.6% | +1.2% |
| Beat the S&P 500 at 3 months | 51.9% | 40.6% | 47.1% |
The gap between upgraded and downgraded stocks was 5.4 percentage points around the call and 5.1 percentage points after three months, so it narrowed after the news. Most of the difference showed up around the call itself, not in the weeks after. Averages hide a wide spread: many upgraded stocks still lagged the market.
For what tends to follow a cut, see what happens after a downgrade, and for price targets, do price target raises predict gains.
Do upgrades from top‑rated analysts move stocks more?
Slightly more, on the day. Upgrades from 5-star analysts (4.5 stars or more in Exent’s ranking) moved stocks more than upgrades from analysts outside the ranked 1,121: +3.7% against +2.3% around the call, across 971 and 6,582 upgrades (2019 to Sep 15, 2026). Three months later, stocks upgraded by 5-star analysts were 8.8 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500, against 2.5 points ahead for the unranked group.
| Analyst rating | Upgrades | Around the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5★ | 971 | +3.7% | +8.8% |
| 4★ | 3,920 | +2.6% | +3.6% |
| Under 3.5★ | 41 | +2.0% | +15.4% |
| Not ranked | 6,582 | +2.3% | +2.5% |
Downgrades showed a larger reaction for top-rated analysts: −3.1% around the call across 846 downgrades, against −2.9% across 6,082 from unranked analysts.
Stars come from Exent’s ranking of 1,121 analysts on the past accuracy and returns of their calls, measured from each call’s date (how star ratings work). The ranking is today’s, so it partly reflects these same calls; a good record does not guarantee the next call. Exent does not name the top-ranked analysts on public pages.
Has the upgrade effect changed over the years?
Upgrades lifted stocks on average in every year from 2019 to 2026; the biggest average move was +3.2% in 2026. Downgrades hit hardest in 2022, when the average downgraded stock fell 4.1% around the call. Reactions tend to be larger in volatile markets, when every piece of news moves prices more.
| Year | Upgrades: average move | Downgrades: average move | Calls (up / down) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | +2.5% | −2.6% | 950 / 1,079 |
| 2020 | +2.5% | −3.1% | 1,713 / 1,419 |
| 2021 | +2.5% | −2.1% | 1,311 / 958 |
| 2022 | +2.5% | −4.1% | 1,136 / 1,530 |
| 2023 | +2.6% | −2.9% | 1,425 / 1,287 |
| 2024 | +2.2% | −2.9% | 1,555 / 1,536 |
| 2025 | +2.3% | −3.1% | 2,020 / 1,665 |
| 2026 (to Sep 15) | +3.2% | −2.3% | 1,404 / 1,226 |
Which stocks move most on analyst upgrades?
Among the largest US stocks, AppLovin (APP) reacted most: its 10 upgrades came with an average move of +13.2% around the call. At the other end of this list, Cloudflare (NET) averaged +4.4%.
| Stock | Upgrades | Average move around the call |
|---|---|---|
| AppLovin (APP) | 10 | +13.2% |
| Vertiv Holdings (VRT) | 11 | +8.3% |
| Carvana (CVNA) | 28 | +6.9% |
| Bloom Energy (BE) | 16 | +6.8% |
| Palantir Technologies (PLTR) | 22 | +6.7% |
| Intel (INTC) | 52 | +5.5% |
| Oracle (ORCL) | 36 | +5.5% |
| Meta Platforms (META) | 34 | +4.9% |
| Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) | 51 | +4.9% |
| Targa Resources (TRGP) | 15 | +4.9% |
| Dell Technologies (DELL) | 9 | +4.8% |
| Marvell Technology (MRVL) | 20 | +4.7% |
| QUALCOMM (QCOM) | 34 | +4.5% |
| Micron Technology (MU) | 36 | +4.4% |
| Cloudflare (NET) | 18 | +4.4% |
By company size, upgrades moved smaller companies most (+4.3% on average) and large companies least (+2.1%).
| Market value | Upgrades | Upgrade: average move | Downgrade: average move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over $200 billion | 1,266 | +2.5% | −2.5% |
| $10–200 billion | 8,226 | +2.1% | −2.4% |
| Under $10 billion | 2,022 | +4.3% | −5.1% |
Which stocks do analysts forecast best and worst?
For the median stock, 68.6% of analysts’ 12-month price targets were reached in time, across 794 US stocks with at least 100 targets (data as of Oct 20, 2026). Targets on McKesson (MCK) were reached most often (99.2% of 373) and on BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) least often (23.0% of 586).
Most often reached:
| Stock | Price targets | Reached within 12 months |
|---|---|---|
| McKesson (MCK) | 373 | 99.2% |
| Constellation Energy (CEG) | 241 | 95.9% |
| Jabil (JBL) | 112 | 95.5% |
| Quanta Services (PWR) | 307 | 95.4% |
| Cipher Digital (CIFR) | 109 | 94.5% |
| Marriott International (MAR) | 331 | 93.7% |
| Arista Networks (ANET) | 497 | 93.2% |
| Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) | 283 | 92.9% |
| Broadcom (AVGO) | 666 | 92.6% |
| Cencora (COR) | 315 | 91.1% |
Least often reached:
| Stock | Price targets | Reached within 12 months |
|---|---|---|
| BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN) | 586 | 23.0% |
| Weyerhaeuser (WY) | 194 | 23.7% |
| Constellation Brands (STZ) | 700 | 24.3% |
| Darling Ingredients (DAR) | 215 | 26.5% |
| LKQ (LKQ) | 166 | 27.7% |
| Rithm Capital (RITM) | 161 | 28.0% |
| Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) | 172 | 28.5% |
| Baxter International (BAX) | 279 | 30.5% |
| MGM Resorts International (MGM) | 352 | 31.2% |
| Spyre Therapeutics (SYRE) | 130 | 33.8% |
A high hit rate says as much about the stock as about the forecasters. Targets on a stock that kept rising get reached; targets on a volatile stock or one that fell for a long stretch often do not. A target counts as reached when the stock closed at or beyond it (above for a higher target, below for a lower one) within 12 months of the call. For the record across all stocks, see are analyst price targets accurate.
How can investors read an analyst upgrade?
- Check the timing: the reaction is measured from the close before the call, so the news is often in the price before most investors see it.
- Look at who made the call: an analyst’s past hit rate and returns, measured from each call’s date, say more than the rating label.
- Read the reasons and the new price target, not just the word “upgrade”: a move from Sell to Hold and a move from Hold to Buy are different signals.
- Watch for agreement: several well-rated analysts moving the same way carries more information than one call.
- Treat any call as one input next to valuation, the business and how the stock fits the rest of your portfolio.
Method and caveats
- Calls: 11,514 upgrades, 10,700 downgrades, 13,834 initiations on US stocks in Exent’s coverage, dated from Jan 1, 2019 to Sep 15, 2026, from Exent analyst data. Recent calls are left out until their one-month window has closed.
- Move around the call: from the close before the call to the close after it (two trading sessions). One and three months: 30 and 91 calendar days from the close before the call. “Vs the S&P 500” subtracts the SPY fund’s return over the same window; dividends are included.
- Analyst ratings: today’s Exent ranking of 1,121 analysts (5★ = 4.5 stars or more, 4★ = 3.5 to 4.4); analysts outside it count as not ranked. Company size: today’s market value.
- Price-target hit rate: targets set from 2019 to a year before the data date; reached means a daily close at or beyond the target within 12 months. Only stocks with 100 or more such targets are ranked, and stocks whose median target sat more than 100% above the price at the time of the call are left out of the named lists, since that usually points to a stock split or spin-off the older targets were not adjusted for.
- The stock list is today’s, so companies that were acquired or delisted are missing (survivorship bias). Averages are pulled by a few large moves.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
How Exent uses analyst records
- Exent scores thousands of Wall Street analysts on the record of their past calls, measured from each call’s date, so you can see whose upgrades have held up.
- Gems are the stocks where several of the top‑ranked analysts agree: our hunt for the next big winners, not a guarantee.
- Radar adds live insider buying, Congress trades and big‑fund moves, so an upgrade can be checked against what other informed buyers are doing.
Frequently asked questions
Across 11,514 analyst upgrades of US stocks from Jan 1, 2019 to Sep 15, 2026, the stock rose 2.5% on average from the close before the call to the close after it (2.3 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500), and it rose in 70.2% of cases.
On average the stock fell 3.0% from the close before the downgrade to the close after it, across 10,700 downgrades from Jan 1, 2019 to Sep 15, 2026, and it rose in only 31.0% of cases. Three months later it was 1.6 percentage points behind the S&P 500 on average.
Three months after an upgrade the stock was 3.4 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 on average and had beaten it in 51.9% of cases; three months after a downgrade it was 1.6 percentage points behind the S&P 500 (40.6% beat it), for calls from 2019 to Sep 15, 2026.
Upgrades from 5-star analysts (4.5 stars or more in Exent’s ranking) moved stocks more than upgrades from analysts outside the ranked 1,121: +3.7% against +2.3% around the call, across 971 and 6,582 upgrades (2019 to Sep 15, 2026).
Of 794 US stocks with 100 or more analyst price targets, targets were reached within 12 months most often on McKesson (MCK), at 99.2% of 373, and least often on BioMarin Pharmaceutical (BMRN), at 23.0%; the median stock was 68.6%, data as of Oct 20, 2026.
Among the largest US stocks with a long record of upgrades, the biggest average moves around the call were AppLovin (APP), +13.2% over 10 upgrades; Vertiv Holdings (VRT), +8.3% over 11 upgrades; Carvana (CVNA), +6.9% over 28 upgrades, for calls from 2019 to Sep 15, 2026.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.