How to Tell If a Stock Analyst Is Any Good
Before you act on an analyst’s call, check five things: hit rate, sample size, recency, sector and what happened after their calls. Here is how, with benchmarks from Exent’s 7‑year backtest.
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Which Wall Street Analysts Are the Most Accurate?
How Exent ranks Wall Street analysts on a 7‑year backtest, which public records stand out, which firms and sectors do best, and how to judge any analyst before you read their next call.
Key takeaways
- Exent ranks 1,148 Wall Street analysts on a 7-year backtest of 958,671 ratings; the average analyst’s price target was reached 53.1% of the time. Who the top-ranked analysts are, and what they rate now, is members-only in Exent Gems.
- Among analysts whose records are public on Exent, Joe O'Dea of Wells Fargo had the highest price-target hit rate over at least 1,000 ratings: 79.4% across 4,844.
- Among firms with at least 20 ranked analysts, Goldman Sachs had the highest median hit rate (64.0%); the median at Raymond James was 48.1%.
- Sectors differ widely: the median technology analyst reached 60.0% of targets, the median real estate analyst 36.0%.
- These are past track records, not predictions. Backtest statistics are as of Nov 2, 2026.
Which stocks do Wall Street’s best‑ranked analysts agree on? See them in Exent Gems →
Exent Gems
200 stocks Wall Street’s best‑ranked analysts agree on
We rank 1,148 analysts on 7 years of calls and keep the ones with proven records. Gems are the stocks where several of them agree.
102 of 20020%+ below their highList of Nov 3, 2026
59.8%target hit rate, 5★ analystsvs 53.1% for the average
- #1, #2, #3 ??? backed by 32, 31 and 31 top analysts
- #125 Arista Networks (ANET): 10 top analysts, +52% to their median target, −24% from its 52‑week high
- #155 Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN): 10 top analysts, +2% to their median target, 0% from its 52‑week high
- #159 Spyre Therapeutics (SYRE): 10 top analysts, +30% to their median target, −12% from its 52‑week high
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
In this article
- Who are the most accurate Wall Street analysts?
- Which analysts have the best record over 1,000+ ratings?
- Which sectors have the most accurate analysts?
- Which Wall Street firms have the most accurate analysts?
- How far apart are analysts?
- Exent’s top 50 analysts
- How to choose top stock market analysts to follow
Who are the most accurate Wall Street analysts?
The top ten of Exent’s ranking are below, shown the way the analyst rankings show them: their names and firms are members‑only, because they are the analysts behind Gems. The rank and star rating combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings; the hit rate is how often their price targets were reached within 12 months in a 7-year backtest. The average analyst’s figure is 53.1%.
| Rank | Analyst | Firm | Sector | Stars | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ??? | ??? | Financials | 5.0★ | 75.0% |
| 2 | ??? | ??? | Technology | 5.0★ | 73.8% |
| 3 | ??? | ??? | Energy | 5.0★ | 42.3% |
| 4 | ??? | ??? | Materials | 5.0★ | 53.3% |
| 5 | ??? | ??? | Technology | 5.0★ | 63.1% |
| 6 | ??? | ??? | Technology | 5.0★ | 59.3% |
| 7 | ??? | ??? | Technology | 5.0★ | 66.6% |
| 8 | ??? | ??? | Technology | 5.0★ | 67.7% |
| 9 | ??? | ??? | Technology | 5.0★ | 63.9% |
| 10 | ??? | ??? | Technology | 5.0★ | 56.2% |
- 1
- Analyst
- ???
- Firm
- ???
- Sector
- Financials
- Stars
- 5.0★
- Hit rate
- 75.0%
- 2
- Analyst
- ???
- Firm
- ???
- Sector
- Technology
- Stars
- 5.0★
- Hit rate
- 73.8%
- 3
- Analyst
- ???
- Firm
- ???
- Sector
- Energy
- Stars
- 5.0★
- Hit rate
- 42.3%
- 4
- Analyst
- ???
- Firm
- ???
- Sector
- Materials
- Stars
- 5.0★
- Hit rate
- 53.3%
- 5
- Analyst
- ???
- Firm
- ???
- Sector
- Technology
- Stars
- 5.0★
- Hit rate
- 63.1%
- 6
- Analyst
- ???
- Firm
- ???
- Sector
- Technology
- Stars
- 5.0★
- Hit rate
- 59.3%
- 7
- Analyst
- ???
- Firm
- ???
- Sector
- Technology
- Stars
- 5.0★
- Hit rate
- 66.6%
- 8
- Analyst
- ???
- Firm
- ???
- Sector
- Technology
- Stars
- 5.0★
- Hit rate
- 67.7%
- 9
- Analyst
- ???
- Firm
- ???
- Sector
- Technology
- Stars
- 5.0★
- Hit rate
- 63.9%
- 10
- Analyst
- ???
- Firm
- ???
- Sector
- Technology
- Stars
- 5.0★
- Hit rate
- 56.2%
One number is never enough, because the ranking also weighs the size of returns and how many ratings stand behind them. John Freeman (#58, one of the open ranks 51–100) reached 31.1% of price targets, yet the stocks rated were higher a year later 76.0% of the time: the direction was usually right, the targets ambitious. Ranks 51–100 and most of the list below are public on the analyst rankings; who the top ten are and what they are rating now are in Gems.
Which analysts have the best record over 1,000+ ratings?
Among analysts whose records are public on Exent, Joe O'Dea of Wells Fargo had the highest price-target hit rate over at least 1,000 ratings: 79.4% across 4,844. Filtering to analysts with at least 1,000 price-target ratings in the backtest (343 of the 1,148 ranked) removes most luck from the picture. The table lists the highest hit rates among those whose records are public: ranks 51–100, and ranks from 250 on outside each sector’s top 50.
| Analyst | Firm | Sector | Ratings | Target hit rate | Median days to hit | Exent rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe O'Dea | Wells Fargo | Industrials | 4,844 | 79.4% | 61 | 896 |
| Thomas O'Malley | Barclays | Technology | 1,706 | 74.9% | 42 | 65 |
| Tim Long | Barclays | Technology | 1,489 | 72.4% | 82 | 272 |
| Erik Woodring | Morgan Stanley | Technology | 1,222 | 72.3% | 81 | 300 |
| Michael Dahl | RBC Capital | Consumer Discretionary | 1,668 | 71.8% | 53 | 917 |
| Karl Keirstead | UBS | Technology | 1,222 | 71.0% | 57 | 343 |
- Joe O'Dea
- Firm
- Wells Fargo
- Sector
- Industrials
- Ratings
- 4,844
- Target hit rate
- 79.4%
- Median days to hit
- 61
- Exent rank
- 896
- Thomas O'Malley
- Firm
- Barclays
- Sector
- Technology
- Ratings
- 1,706
- Target hit rate
- 74.9%
- Median days to hit
- 42
- Exent rank
- 65
- Tim Long
- Firm
- Barclays
- Sector
- Technology
- Ratings
- 1,489
- Target hit rate
- 72.4%
- Median days to hit
- 82
- Exent rank
- 272
- Erik Woodring
- Firm
- Morgan Stanley
- Sector
- Technology
- Ratings
- 1,222
- Target hit rate
- 72.3%
- Median days to hit
- 81
- Exent rank
- 300
- Michael Dahl
- Firm
- RBC Capital
- Sector
- Consumer Discretionary
- Ratings
- 1,668
- Target hit rate
- 71.8%
- Median days to hit
- 53
- Exent rank
- 917
- Karl Keirstead
- Firm
- UBS
- Sector
- Technology
- Ratings
- 1,222
- Target hit rate
- 71.0%
- Median days to hit
- 57
- Exent rank
- 343
Notice the last column. Several of the most reliable target-setters rank far down the overall list, because the ranking also weighs the size of returns after each call. Which measure matters depends on what you want from an analyst, as explained in how to judge an analyst.
Which sectors have the most accurate analysts?
Compare any analyst’s hit rate with their sector’s median, not the overall average, because some sectors are much harder to call. The medians below cover every ranked analyst in the sector. Each sector’s top 50 are members‑only in Gems; the rest are named on each sector’s ranking.
| Sector | Ranked analysts | Median target hit rate | Median share up after 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 260 | 60.0% | 62.4% |
| Materials | 104 | 59.5% | 67.7% |
| Industrials | 180 | 57.2% | 70.1% |
| Consumer Staples | 13 | 56.2% | 68.3% |
| Financials | 168 | 54.0% | 73.7% |
| Energy | 79 | 53.2% | 69.6% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 70 | 52.3% | 59.1% |
| Communication Services | 56 | 51.8% | 55.7% |
| Utilities | 29 | 43.8% | 75.0% |
| Healthcare | 165 | 42.6% | 54.8% |
| Real Estate | 24 | 36.0% | 59.4% |
For why sectors differ so much, see analyst accuracy by sector.
Which Wall Street firms have the most accurate analysts?
Among firms with at least 20 ranked analysts, Goldman Sachs had the highest median target hit rate, at 64.0%. The table shows the median across each firm’s ranked analysts, so one star analyst cannot carry a firm.
| Firm | Ranked analysts | Median hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 28 | 64.0% |
| Citi | 38 | 61.9% |
| Barclays | 29 | 61.9% |
| Bank of America Securities | 28 | 60.3% |
| Wells Fargo | 23 | 59.4% |
| Raymond James | 26 | 48.1% |
Smaller firms spread wider. Among firms with at least 10 ranked analysts, National Bank had the highest median hit rate (91.9% across 16 analysts) and H.C. Wainwright the lowest (23.3% across 11). Firm medians describe a group; within every firm, individual records vary widely.
How far apart are analysts?
Far. The median analyst reached 55.2% of price targets, 36.9% of the 942 with a measurable record reached fewer than half, and 14.9% reached 70% or more. That spread is why the analyst matters more than the average.
| Target hit rate | Analysts | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Below 30% | 93 | 9.9% |
| 30–40% | 94 | 10.0% |
| 40–50% | 161 | 17.1% |
| 50–60% | 266 | 28.2% |
| 60–70% | 188 | 20.0% |
| 70–80% | 84 | 8.9% |
| 80% or more | 56 | 5.9% |
Exent’s top 50 analysts
Across 958,671 ratings, the average Wall Street analyst’s price target was reached 53.1% of the time: close to a coin flip. The spread between analysts is wide, and 14.9% of the 942 analysts with a measurable record reached 70% or more (Exent data, Nov 2, 2026).
Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking. Over the last two years, some of them reached 90% or more of their price targets. Who they are, which stocks they are calling now and how often they have been right is for members.
How to choose top stock market analysts to follow
Follow analysts for their measured record, not their fame. Check five things before following anyone’s call:
- Price-target hit rate versus 53.1% for the average analyst and versus the sector median.
- Number of ratings: hundreds, not a handful.
- Recent record: the last two years against the full seven.
- Returns after calls and the typical drawdown along the way.
- Whether other strong analysts agree on the same stock.
Public analyst profiles list these figures for ranked analysts outside the top 50 and each sector’s top 50; the top‑ranked are in Gems. Each sector also has its own ranking, linked from the analyst rankings. For broader idea sources, see stock ideas. Rankings change as new ratings resolve. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy, and none of this is a recommendation to buy or sell any stock.
How to use analyst rankings with Exent
- Stocks Radar ranks thousands of Wall Street analysts by past accuracy, with hit rate, ratings count and returns after calls on each profile.
- Gems flags stocks where several 4★-and-above analysts agree: our hunt for the next big winners, never a guarantee.
- Portfolio Analysis shows what analysts and insiders say about the stocks you already hold.
Frequently asked questions
Exent ranks 1,148 analysts on a 7-year backtest that combines price-target hit rate, returns after calls and the number of ratings; the average analyst’s target was reached 53.1% of the time. The names and live calls of Exent’s top-ranked analysts are members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar). Among public records with 1,000+ ratings, Joe O'Dea of Wells Fargo led at 79.4%.
Among analysts whose records are public on Exent and who have at least 1,000 price-target ratings, Joe O'Dea of Wells Fargo had the highest hit rate, at 79.4% across 4,844 ratings. The top-ranked analysts’ records are members-only in Exent Gems.
Among firms with at least 20 ranked analysts in Exent’s data, Goldman Sachs had the highest median price-target hit rate, at 64.0%, followed by Citi at 61.9% and Barclays at 61.9%.
The best-ranked technology analysts are in the sector’s top 50, which is members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar). The median technology analyst reached 60.0% of price targets, helped by a strong period for tech stocks. Among public technology records with 1,000+ ratings, Thomas O'Malley of Barclays led at 74.9%.
No. The ranking also weighs returns and the number of ratings. John Freeman, ranked #58, reached 31.1% of price targets, but the stocks rated were higher a year later 76.0% of the time.
The ones whose price targets were reached clearly more often than the 53.1% average, over hundreds of ratings and several years, judged against their own sector. A ranking of 1,148 analysts built this way is the fairest starting point; follow what several of the best records agree on rather than one name.
Use a ranking built on each analyst’s full record rather than headlines or TV appearances: hit rate, number of ratings, returns after calls and the recent record. Then look for agreement among several strong analysts on the same stock rather than acting on any single call.
One record is never the only evidence. Even top-ranked analysts miss a large share of their targets, so agreement among several 4★-and-above analysts on the same stock is a stronger signal than any single call.
Get the picks Wall Street’s best analysts agree on.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.