Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
Exent ranks 98 materials analysts among Wall Street’s 1,000 by price‑target hit rate, returns after their calls and number of ratings, from a 7‑year backtest. How the sector’s analysts do, and who ranks below the members‑only top 50.
| Median across the sector’s analysts | Materials | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 62.3% | 52.4% |
| Calls up after 12 months | 67.0% | 64.0% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +20.6% | +13.4% |
| Median days to hit target | 70 days | 91 days |
The top 50 materials analysts are the ones Exent Gems follows in this sector. Who they are and what they are rating now is for members; their records are below.
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 5.0★ | 55.6% | ||
| #2 | 5.0★ | 50.0% | ||
| #3 | 5.0★ | 82.3% | ||
| #4 | 5.0★ | 79.2% | ||
| #5 | 5.0★ | — | ||
| #6 | 5.0★ | 81.3% | ||
| #7 | 5.0★ | — | ||
| #8 | 5.0★ | 73.2% | ||
| #9 | 5.0★ | 100.0% | ||
| #10 | 5.0★ | 0.0% |
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate | Newest ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #15 | Peter Bell | Canaccord Genuity | 5.0★ | 0.0% | After 3 days |
| #16 | Paul Kaner | Ord Minnett | 5.0★ | — | After 3 days |
| #17 | Eric Winmill | Scotiabank | 5.0★ | 36.8% | After 3 days |
| #51 | Tanya Jakusconek | Scotiabank | 4.8★ | 76.3% | After 3 days |
| #52 | Levi Spry | UBS | 4.8★ | 77.8% | After 3 days |
| #53 | Ross Bennett | Morgans | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #54 | Alexander Hacking | Citi | 4.8★ | 74.1% | After 3 days |
| #55 | Alain Gabriel | Morgan Stanley | 4.8★ | 50.0% | After 3 days |
| #56 | Hamir Patel | CIBC | 4.8★ | 32.4% | After 3 days |
| #57 | Rahul Anand | Morgan Stanley | 4.8★ | 0.0% | After 3 days |
| #58 | Yuta Nishiyama | Citi | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #59 | Andrew Richards CFA | Petra Capital | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #60 | Cole McGill | Stifel Nicolaus | 4.8★ | 0.0% | After 3 days |
| #61 | Allison Carson CFA | Desjardins | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #62 | Thanh Ha Pham | Jefferies | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #63 | Paul Howard CFA | Canaccord Genuity | 4.7★ | — | After 3 days |
| #64 | Krishan Agarwal | Citi | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #65 | Marina Calero | RBC Capital | 4.8★ | 66.7% | After 3 days |
| #66 | Mike Niehuser | Roth MKM | 4.8★ | 48.8% | After 3 days |
| #67 | Liam Fitzpatrick | Deutsche Bank | 4.8★ | 30.0% | After 3 days |
| #68 | Jason Fairclough | Bank of America Securities | 4.7★ | 56.3% | After 3 days |
| #69 | Ian Rossouw CFA | Barclays | 4.8★ | 100.0% | After 3 days |
| #70 | Mohamed Sidibe | National Bank | 4.7★ | — | After 3 days |
| #71 | Jake Sekelsky | Alliance Global Partners | 4.7★ | 35.9% | After 3 days |
| #72 | Shuhang Jiang | Jefferies | 4.7★ | — | After 3 days |
| #73 | Wayne Lam | TD Cowen | 4.7★ | 100.0% | After 3 days |
| #74 | Kaan Peker | RBC Capital | 4.7★ | 100.0% | After 3 days |
| #75 | Ralph M. Profiti | Stifel Nicolaus | 4.6★ | 76.5% | After 3 days |
| #76 | Carlos De Alba | Morgan Stanley | 4.7★ | 70.9% | After 3 days |
| #77 | Peter Kormendy | Shaw and Partners | 4.7★ | — | After 3 days |
More materials analysts: Ben Davis · John Roberts CFA · Bastian Synagowitz · Guilherme Rosito · Mike Parkin · Siddharth Rajeev · Jamie Spratt · Joy Zhang · Fahad Tariq · Puneet Singh · Marcio Farid · Joel Jackson · Reg Spencer · Alexander Pearce · Nick Giles · Chris Brown CFA · Lyndon Fagan · Aleksey Yefremov · Bennett Moore · Austin Yun · Pete Osterland
Every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback is replayed: was the target reached, how fast, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months later. The ranking combines success rate, average return and number of ratings; the sector rank orders the analysts whose main sector is materials. Sector figures are medians, so one star analyst does not carry the group. All sectors and the overall ranking.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
In Exent’s ranking, the top materials analyst reached 55.6% of price targets over a 7-year lookback, against a 62.3% median for the sector. The names and live calls of the top 50 materials analysts are members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar).
Across the 98 materials analysts in Exent’s ranking, the median price-target hit rate was 62.3% over a 7-year lookback, against 52.4% for all analysts, and a median 67.0% of their calls were up 12 months later.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.