Same S&P 500.
10× the return.

Predictive Market Intelligence tells you when to hold the S&P 500 and when to step aside. Over 8 years, it turned $100,000 into $1.91 million. S&P 500 buy & hold made $286,000.

See today’s regimeLimited offer67% off your first month
  • Your money stays yoursNo broker access
  • Cancel anytimeNo contracts
4.8/5396 customers
S&P 500S&P 500 + Exent
$100K$100KOct 2018
$100,000 invested · 2018–2026
Regimes are illustrative only.

S&P 500 vs Exent Regime

Performance comparison

Total returnCAGRAnn. volSharpeMax DDCalmar
S&P 500 buy & hold+79.5%21.6%12.5%1.36-19.0%1.14
S&P 500 + Exent+203.5%44.9%14.7%2.75-19.9%2.26
S&P 500 buy & holdS&P 500 + Exent
Total return+79.5%+203.5%
CAGR21.6%44.9%
Ann. vol12.5%14.7%
Sharpe1.362.75
Max DD-19.0%-19.9%
Calmar1.142.26
  • Risk ON0.0%
    16 episodes
  • Neutral0.0%
    33 episodes
  • Risk OFF0.0%
    16 episodes

Same $100k invested. Totally different outcomes.

Everyone owns the same index. The difference is knowing when to hold it, and when to step aside. That’s what Exent Regime does.

8 years. Same index. 10x return difference.

Year by year returns

2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025

Ahead of the S&P 500 in 8 of 8 years, including both years the index fell. Worst year: +3.3% in 2018, when the S&P 500 did −12.5%.

One regime, multiple risk profiles

Same signal, different amounts of risk. 8-year figures, S&P 500 buy & hold for reference.

StrategyTotal returnCAGRAnn. volSharpeMax DDCalmar
S&P 500 buy & hold+186.1%14.1%16.1%0.59-34.1%0.41
S&P 500 with Exent Regime (2x Graduated) · Best model+1810.4%44.6%16.7%2.41-19.9%2.24
S&P 500 with Exent Regime (Graduated)+355.3%20.9%8.3%1.96-10.3%2.03
S&P 500 with Exent Regime (2x Risk ON)+928.6%33.8%14.0%2.10-19.0%1.78
S&P 500 with Exent Regime (Risk ON)+230.0%16.1%7.0%1.66-9.8%1.64
S&P 500 with Exent Regime (Avoid Risk OFF)+512.9%25.5%11.5%1.82-21.6%1.18
S&P 500 with Exent Regime (2x Graduated) · Best model2 / 6
Total return+1810.4%
CAGR44.6%
Ann. vol16.7%
Sharpe2.41
Max DD-19.9%
Calmar2.24
10×The S&P 500 over 8 yearsBest strategy: $100K → $1.91M
~82.0%Risk ON / Risk OFF call accuracy61 episodes since 2018
2.39Sharpe ratiovs 0.50 for the S&P 500

Returns get most attention, but protection is key.

The hard question isn’t what you make in the good years. It’s what you keep in the bad ones.

Worst peak-to-bottom drop

When the S&P 500 fell roughly 25% through 2022, the model had already shifted to Risk OFF, watching the crash from the sidelines instead of riding it down.

  • S&P 500 buy & hold−34.1%
    Rode the crash all the way down.
  • S&P 500 with Exent 2x Regime−19.9%
    Kept 2x exposure in Risk ON regime, still had half the loss.
  • S&P 500 with Exent Regime−10.3%
    Kept plain index exposure.

Built with millions of macro data points. Not opinions.

No narratives, no gut calls. The model distills thousands of proprietary data feeds into one 0–100 score: carry risk, or protect capital.

  • TradingView
  • FRED
  • Morgan Stanley
  • Goldman Sachs
Exent
  • Claude
  • OpenAI
  • BIS
  • SEC

4 macro pillars. 1 score.

100+ proprietary inputs feed four pillars. Each is scored 0–100, then fused into the single Exent Regime Score.

Current regime

Updated 1h ago

Live
Risk ON67.2
Risk OFFNRisk ON

Previous regime change: 11d agoNeutral 48.5

Illustrative only. Not real data.
  • Liquidity74.2

    How much money is moving through the financial system — the fuel behind every rally.

  • Capital Stress44.8

    Early-warning signs from credit markets — where trouble shows up before it reaches stocks.

  • Cycle72.6

    Where the economy sits in its cycle — growth, inflation and interest-rate momentum.

  • Sentiment77.2

    How fearful or greedy investors are — the extremes that mark tops and bottoms.

Clear actions for you.

Risk ON

Lean in = accelerate the wins

Stay invested. The flagship regime leans in at 2×.

Risk OFF

Step aside = cut the losses

Protect capital. Losses you mostly don’t take.

Beating the market isn’t hard because you lack information. It’s hard because we are humans.

The market doesn’t beat most people with bad data. It distracts them with noise, FOMO and fear.

Every newsletter says something different. The more I read, the less I know what to do.

One score replaces fifty open tabs.

Your weekend stays yours.

By the time everyone was talking about the rally, I bought in. That was the top.

The signal turns Risk ON before the headlines do.

I sold in the drop just to stop the bleeding, and then missed the entire recovery.

You exit on data, not fear — and the signal tells you when to come back.

I've been holding cash, waiting for the right moment. It's been two years.

There's always a clear answer: in, or out.

No more waiting for a feeling.

Recognized by leading financial names.

S&P 500 vs Exent Regime performance comparison chart from the article

“Exent AI Beat S&P 500 by 10x Over 8 Years”

Yahoo Finance · June 2, 2026

NEW YORK, June 02, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — An eight-year performance analysis of Exent AI’s proprietary Kambo Score market regime signal shows a roughly 1,400 percentage point outperformance gap versus the S&P 500, translating to approximately 10x the benchmark’s total return.

Read full article

Trusted by 300+ self‑directed investors.

4.8/5396 customers

Own the same index. Change the outcome.

Get the live regime score, alerts and all six models today. Your money stays yours, Exent Regime just tells you when to act.

See today’s regimeLimited offer67% off your first month

Exent Macro Regime, in plain words

Exent Regime Score (KAMBO) is a temperature reading for the market.

Every day it reads the same conditions the big institutions read — how much money is flowing through the system, how stressed the credit markets are, where we sit in the economic cycle, what mood investors are in — and compresses all of that into one score.

The Exent Macro Regime is the weather forecast built from that score. A forecast cannot stop the rain. It tells you when to take the umbrella, and when the sky is clear enough to leave it home.

KAMBO's score sorts into three regimes:

Risk ON

Conditions support stocks. Stay invested.

Neutral

Mixed signals. Reduce exposure, do not panic.

Risk OFF

Conditions are deteriorating. Stand aside.

Two things KAMBO is not. It does not pick stocks. And it does not predict tomorrow's prices. It tells you what kind of market you are standing in, so the market stops deciding that for you.

The calls that mattered, and what each one was worth

Every green and red zone on the chart above is a call. These are the big ones. The red rows are declines it stood aside from. The green rows are runs it stayed invested for.

WhenThe callWhat happened nextWith ExentWith 2x Exent
Feb 2020
COVID crash
Risk OffThe fastest bear market in history. The S&P 500 collapsed as the world shut down.-30.6% avoided-55% avoided
May 2020
The recovery
Risk OnRe-entered while most investors were still hiding. The rebound ran for months.+22.8% in 6 months+45%
Nov 2020
The confirmation
Risk OnVaccine news, liquidity flowing, all four pillars aligned. One of the strongest readings on record.+27.9% in 6 months+59%
Dec 2021
The top
Risk OffTurned defensive with the index near its all time high. The 2022 bear market followed.-23.5% avoided-43% avoided
Aug 2022
The trap
Stayed OffA 17 percent summer rally had headlines calling the bottom. KAMBO never confirmed. The rally failed.-16.8% avoided-32% avoided
Nov 2022
The re-entry
Risk OnTurned green at 3,993, within weeks of the actual bear market low. The index trades above 7,400 today.+87% since the signal+224%
Nov 2023
The green light
Risk OnConfirmed conditions ahead of the strongest stretch of the decade and held green for four months straight.+14.8% while green+31%
Mar 2026
The latest
Risk OffTurned defensive near the February highs. The index fell for four straight weeks, then KAMBO re-entered for the recovery to new highs.-7.8% avoided-15% avoided
  • Feb 2020
    COVID crash
    The call
    Risk Off
    What happened next
    The fastest bear market in history. The S&P 500 collapsed as the world shut down.
    With Exent
    -30.6% avoided
    With 2x Exent
    -55% avoided
  • May 2020
    The recovery
    The call
    Risk On
    What happened next
    Re-entered while most investors were still hiding. The rebound ran for months.
    With Exent
    +22.8% in 6 months
    With 2x Exent
    +45%
  • Nov 2020
    The confirmation
    The call
    Risk On
    What happened next
    Vaccine news, liquidity flowing, all four pillars aligned. One of the strongest readings on record.
    With Exent
    +27.9% in 6 months
    With 2x Exent
    +59%
  • Dec 2021
    The top
    The call
    Risk Off
    What happened next
    Turned defensive with the index near its all time high. The 2022 bear market followed.
    With Exent
    -23.5% avoided
    With 2x Exent
    -43% avoided
  • Aug 2022
    The trap
    The call
    Stayed Off
    What happened next
    A 17 percent summer rally had headlines calling the bottom. KAMBO never confirmed. The rally failed.
    With Exent
    -16.8% avoided
    With 2x Exent
    -32% avoided
  • Nov 2022
    The re-entry
    The call
    Risk On
    What happened next
    Turned green at 3,993, within weeks of the actual bear market low. The index trades above 7,400 today.
    With Exent
    +87% since the signal
    With 2x Exent
    +224%
  • Nov 2023
    The green light
    The call
    Risk On
    What happened next
    Confirmed conditions ahead of the strongest stretch of the decade and held green for four months straight.
    With Exent
    +14.8% while green
    With 2x Exent
    +31%
  • Mar 2026
    The latest
    The call
    Risk Off
    What happened next
    Turned defensive near the February highs. The index fell for four straight weeks, then KAMBO re-entered for the recovery to new highs.
    With Exent
    -7.8% avoided
    With 2x Exent
    -15% avoided

Feb 2020

COVID crash

Risk Off

The fastest bear market in history. The S&P 500 collapsed as the world shut down.

With Exent
-30.6% avoided
With 2x Exent
-55% avoided

May 2020

The recovery

Risk On

Re-entered while most investors were still hiding. The rebound ran for months.

With Exent
+22.8% in 6 months
With 2x Exent
+45%

Nov 2020

The confirmation

Risk On

Vaccine news, liquidity flowing, all four pillars aligned. One of the strongest readings on record.

With Exent
+27.9% in 6 months
With 2x Exent
+59%

Dec 2021

The top

Risk Off

Turned defensive with the index near its all time high. The 2022 bear market followed.

With Exent
-23.5% avoided
With 2x Exent
-43% avoided

Aug 2022

The trap

Stayed Off

A 17 percent summer rally had headlines calling the bottom. KAMBO never confirmed. The rally failed.

With Exent
-16.8% avoided
With 2x Exent
-32% avoided

Nov 2022

The re-entry

Risk On

Turned green at 3,993, within weeks of the actual bear market low. The index trades above 7,400 today.

With Exent
+87% since the signal
With 2x Exent
+224%

Nov 2023

The green light

Risk On

Confirmed conditions ahead of the strongest stretch of the decade and held green for four months straight.

With Exent
+14.8% while green
With 2x Exent
+31%

Mar 2026

The latest

Risk Off

Turned defensive near the February highs. The index fell for four straight weeks, then KAMBO re-entered for the recovery to new highs.

With Exent
-7.8% avoided
With 2x Exent
-15% avoided

For the record, it is not perfect. The initial COVID drop and the April 2025 tariff shock hit faster than macro data moves, and KAMBO adjusted within days rather than in advance. It reads the temperature. It does not predict lightning.

The value shown above came from every slow moving storm of the last eight years, which is where the real money is lost.

Why the worth column understates it

Two forces make these calls worth more than the numbers first suggest.

First, losses are not symmetric. Think of a drawdown as a hole. Fall 30% and you need 43% just to climb back to the surface. Fall 50% and you need 100%.

Every decline KAMBO stood aside from means you climb out of no hole at all, and compound from a higher base into the next recovery. That is where the long-term gap really comes from — not the winning trades.

Second, a managed downside changes what upside you can afford. Leverage on its own is how accounts die. The red rows in the 2x column show why: a leveraged investor with no exit signal would have taken a 55% hit in COVID and a 43% hit in 2022.

But with the exits handled, some investors choose to run a 2x index fund during Risk On only. Same signal, doubled moves — and they are standing aside for exactly the periods that destroy leveraged accounts. The Nov 2022 row shows what that looks like when a real bull market follows: 87% becomes roughly 224.

That is the quiet logic behind the whole system. The defense is not the opposite of the offense. The defense is what pays for it.

How people actually use it

No screens to learn. No charts to read. The regime changes, you make one adjustment. These are the six KAMBO models available in Market Intelligence, from most conservative to most aggressive.

Figures reference the historical chart above. Declines avoided show the market's maximum drawdown following a Risk Off reading, assuming an investor stood aside for that period. Gains captured show the market's return during or following the stated Risk On reading. Figures in the With 2x column are simulated by compounding two times the S&P 500's daily return over the same window, before fund fees, financing costs, and taxes, which is an approximation of how daily reset leveraged index funds behave. Leveraged funds amplify losses as well as gains and can lose value in sideways markets even when the index is flat. All figures describe index moves during signal periods, not the performance of any account, and assume signals were followed as shown. Past performance does not guarantee future results. KAMBO is a research signal that measures macro conditions, which the Exent Macro Regime classifies into Risk On, Neutral, and Risk Off. It does not predict prices and does not recommend individual securities. Nothing on this page is financial advice. Exent is not a registered investment advisor.

Frequently asked questions

Predictive Market Intelligence is Exent's macro regime system. It centers on the KAMBO score—Exent's proprietary macro regime score—along with daily macro briefings and exposure guidance. It is built for investors managing serious capital who want institutional regime awareness every day.

KAMBO is Exent's proprietary macro regime score. The Exent macro regime system synthesizes liquidity, credit stress, economic cycle, and sentiment into that single score. It tells you whether conditions favor aggressive, cautious, or defensive positioning. The system has flagged every major market crash and recovery since 2019. In S&P 500 backtesting, avoiding KAMBO risk-off periods nearly tripled the risk-adjusted return (Sharpe ratio). Maximum drawdown fell from -33.9% to -9.6% versus buy-and-hold. Think of it as a weather forecast for markets. It reads conditions before you deploy capital. Past backtested performance does not guarantee future results.

In backtesting across the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000, strategies guided by the Exent macro regime system and KAMBO score beat buy-and-hold on returns and risk. On the S&P 500, the risk-on strategy returned more while cutting the worst drawdown by roughly two-thirds. On the Russell 2000, buy-and-hold returned 32% over the test period. The same regime filter returned over 4x that. Most damage in investing comes from full exposure during the wrong periods. Regime awareness reads existing conditions and sizes exposure accordingly. These are backtested results. Past performance is not indicative of future returns.

Most market commentary is opinion dressed as analysis. The Exent macro regime system is a systematic, multi-signal composite with no narrative bias. The KAMBO score reads what institutional money responds to: liquidity flows, credit conditions, the economic cycle, and options-market sentiment. The signal updates as data changes, not when a commentator decides to publish.

Yes. The Exent macro regime system passed five independent statistical robustness tests. Cross-asset validation ran identical parameters on three indices with zero re-tuning. Out-of-sample performance improved on unseen data. A one-million-shuffle permutation test confirmed the KAMBO score is statistically real (p = 0.0001). Most market models do not survive this scrutiny. We think you should demand it before trusting any system. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

No. Exent is a research and analytics platform providing model-based insights for informational and educational purposes. It does not recommend trades, execute orders, or manage money. You stay in full control of every decision.

Same S&P 500. 10× the return.

Know when to hold the index and when to step aside. Get the live regime score today.

See today’s regimeLimited offer67% off your first month