How often Matt Murphy’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 250 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.
Matt Murphy of BMO Capital ranks #48 of the 1,000 analysts Exent scores, with a 5.0★ rating and a focus on materials. Over a 7‑year lookback, 73.2% of Matt’s price targets were reached, 20.8 points above the 52.4% average across all analysts.
| Metric | Matt Murphy | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 73.2% | 52.4% |
| Median days to hit target | 122 days | 91 days |
| Calls up after 12 months | 59.8% | 64.0% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +12.6% | +13.4% |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | 95.8% | — |
| Average worst drop after a call | −19.2% | — |
| Ratings in the sample | 250 | — |
| Stocks covered | 31 | — |
| Time to reach the target | Matt Murphy |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 19.7% |
| 30–90 days | 21.1% |
| 90–180 days | 31.0% |
| Over 180 days | 28.2% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
| Stock | Ratings in the sample |
|---|---|
| TSX-ABX | 41 |
| TSX-ERO | 37 |
| TSX-AEM | 37 |
| TSX-PAAS | 30 |
| NEM | 28 |
| TSX-FNV | 22 |
| TSX-WPM | 19 |
| TSX-FM | 17 |
In the past year Matt’s ratings were 75% Buy, 25% Hold and 0% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | TSX-PAAS | Rated: Hold | Hold | $75.00 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | TSX-ABX | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $62.00 |
| Aug 11, 2026 | NEM | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $135.00 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | TSX-ERO | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $52.00 |
| Aug 5, 2026 | TSX-ERO | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $52.00 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | TSX-FM | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $53.00 |
| Jul 29, 2026 | TSX-FM | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $53.00 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | NEM | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $135.00 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | NEM | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $135.00 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | TSX-AEM | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $355.00 |
| Jul 3, 2026 | TSX-AEM | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $355.00 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | TSX-LUN | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $45.00 |
Live ratings from Matt Murphy and the other top‑ranked analysts, and the stocks where they agree, are in Exent Stocks Radar.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Jun 24, 2026; ranking updated Oct 15, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring Matt Murphy ranks #48 of 1,000 with a 5.0★ rating. 73.2% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 52.4%), and 59.8% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
Matt Murphy’s success rate is 75.5% by the ranking source and 73.2% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 122 days to reach a target.
Matt Murphy (BMO Capital) covers 31 stocks, mostly in materials. The most frequently rated are TSX-ABX, TSX-ERO, TSX-AEM, TSX-PAAS, NEM.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.