Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
How often David Lebowitz’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 447 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.
David Lebowitz of BMO Capital ranks #654 of the 1,121 analysts Exent scores, with a 4.8★ rating and a focus on healthcare. Over a 7‑year lookback, 54.9% of David’s price targets were reached, 1.3 points above the 53.6% average across all analysts.
| Metric | David Lebowitz | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 54.9% | 53.6% |
| Median days to hit target | 131 days | 91 days |
| Calls up after 12 months | 55.7% | 64.6% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +8.3% | +13.4% |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | 62.1% | — |
| Average worst drop after a call | −26.0% | — |
| Ratings in the sample | 447 | — |
| Stocks covered | 32 | — |
The full records of Exent’s top 90 analysts and the top 50 of each sector, and the stocks where several of them agree right now, are members‑only in Exent Gems.
| Time to reach the target | David Lebowitz |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 15.5% |
| 30–90 days | 21.4% |
| 90–180 days | 27.2% |
| Over 180 days | 35.9% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
| Stock | Ratings in the sample |
|---|---|
| ALNY | 46 |
| IONS | 41 |
| ASND | 34 |
| BMRN | 26 |
| PTCT | 23 |
| MIRM | 22 |
| BBIO | 21 |
| INCY | 21 |
In the past year David’s ratings were 68% Buy, 32% Hold and 0% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | ||||
| Oct 7, 2026 | BCAX | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $35.00 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | BMRN | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $97.00 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | BCAX | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $35.00 |
| Oct 6, 2026 | BMRN | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $97.00 |
| Sep 25, 2026 | PRME | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $9.00 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | IONS | Maintained: Hold | Hold | $54.00 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | PRME | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $9.00 |
| Sep 23, 2026 | IONS | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $54.00 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | ALNY | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $318.00 |
| Sep 17, 2026 | ALNY | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $318.00 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | BMRN | Rated: Buy | Buy | $97.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | ASND | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $319.00 |
David published 1 rating in the last 3 days, the latest on Oct 20, 2026. David’s ratings are free on Exent 3 days after publication. Exent Gems has them the same day, with the calls of the top‑ranked analysts and the stocks where several of them agree.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Oct 20, 2026; ranking updated Oct 21, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring David Lebowitz ranks #654 of 1,121 with a 4.8★ rating. 54.9% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 53.6%), and 55.7% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
David Lebowitz’s success rate is 58.6% by the ranking source and 54.9% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 131 days to reach a target.
David Lebowitz (BMO Capital) covers 32 stocks, mostly in healthcare. The most frequently rated are ALNY, IONS, ASND, BMRN, PTCT.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.