How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
About half the time. Across 520,742 ratings that carried a price target, the average analyst’s target was reached within 12 months 52.4% of the time. The data covers the 1,000 top-ranked analysts in Exent’s ranking over a 7-year lookback, with statistics as of June 24, 2026.
| Price-target measure | Average analyst |
|---|---|
| Ratings with a price target | 520,742 of 628,792 |
| Targets reached within 12 months (7 years) | 52.4% |
| Targets reached within 12 months (last 2 years) | 55.4% |
| Median days to reach a target | 91 |
| Average implied upside when the target was set | 66.7% |
| Median stock return 12 months after the rating | +13.4% |
| Average stock return 12 months after the rating | +33.5% |
| Average lowest point within 12 months | −22.0% |
The full study, with the distribution across analysts and results by star rating and sector, is in is the average analyst a coin flip?
A median of 91 days, for the targets that were reached. Analysts set 12-month targets, but when a target is reached, it is often reached early. Half the hits came in the first three months.
| Time to reach the target | Share of targets that were hit |
|---|---|
| 30 days or less | 23.0% |
| 31–90 days | 26.8% |
| 91–180 days | 24.4% |
| More than 180 days | 25.8% |
Speed varies by firm. Among the firms in the same data with at least 20 ranked analysts, the median days to hit ran from 71 at Goldman Sachs to 116 at Raymond James. A target that has not been reached after six months is not dead, but most hits arrive before then.
The average implied upside when targets were set was 66.7%, far above what rated stocks returned. Implied upside is the gap between the target and the price on the rating day. An average like this is sensitive to a few very large targets, so the median outcome is the better comparison.
| Figure | What it means | |
|---|---|---|
| Average implied upside | 66.7% | What targets promised, on average |
| Average 12-month return | +33.5% | Lifted by a few huge winners |
| Median 12-month return | +13.4% | What a typical rating was followed by |
| Share of stocks higher after 12 months | 64.0% | All ratings, whatever their direction |
The gap between the average and the median return tells you the distribution is lopsided: a few stocks multiplied, most moved far less. Reading a target as an expected return overstates what the typical rating delivered. See consensus price target for how averaging many targets changes the picture.
Often a sizeable dip. On average, the lowest close in the 12 months after a rating was 22% below the price on the rating day. A stock can fall well below its rating-day price and still reach the target later in the year, but a holder who sold during the dip would not be there to see it.
That is why a target says little about the ride. A stock can be “right” at month 12 and still fall far enough to test anyone’s nerve first. See max drawdown for how to size that risk.
It finds similar optimism. Bradshaw, Brown and Huang studied 12-month targets from 2000 to 2009 in a paper published in 2013 in the Review of Accounting Studies. Only 38% of targets were met at the end of the 12 months; 64% were met at some point during them. Implied returns exceeded actual returns by 15% on average, and the authors found only economically weak evidence that some analysts are persistently better at targets than others.
Their period, sample and rules differ from ours, so the percentages should not be compared one for one. Both point the same way: a target is a bullish opinion with a number attached, not a forecast you can bank.
Each analyst’s hit rate, days to hit and returns after their calls are on the analyst rankings, and how Gems work explains why agreement among strong analysts matters more than any single target. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
Not on their own. In Exent’s 7-year backtest, the average analyst’s target was reached 52.4% of the time within 12 months, and the spread between analysts was wide.
For targets that were reached, the median analyst took 91 days. About half of the hits came within 90 days, and about a quarter took longer than 180 days.
In Exent’s data, the average implied upside at the time of a rating was 66.7%. The median stock return 12 months after a rating was 13.4%, so targets promised much more than the typical outcome.
Often not. A 2013 academic study of targets from 2000 to 2009 found 38% were met at the end of the horizon, while 64% were met at some point during it.
Frequently. On average, a rated stock’s lowest close in the following 12 months was 22% below its price on the rating day.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.