Which Wall Street Analysts Are the Most Accurate?
How Exent ranks Wall Street analysts on a 7‑year backtest, which public records stand out, which firms and sectors do best, and how to judge any analyst before you read their next call.
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How to Tell If a Stock Analyst Is Any Good
Before you act on an analyst’s call, check five things: hit rate, sample size, recency, sector and what happened after their calls. Here is how, with benchmarks from Exent’s 7‑year backtest.
Key takeaways
- Check five things: price-target hit rate against the 53.1% average and the sector median, the number of ratings behind it, the recent record, and what stocks did after the calls.
- Sample size matters most. In Exent’s data, analysts with fewer than 100 rated calls had hit rates spanning 0% to 100%; among those with 1,000 or more, only about 5% were below 30% or at 80% or more.
- A high rank or star rating is a start, not proof: 28 of 129 five-star analysts with a measurable record hit fewer than half their targets.
- Research finds skill differences between analysts are real but modest, so even a strong record is evidence, not a guarantee.
Which stocks do Wall Street’s best‑ranked analysts agree on? See them in Exent Gems →
Exent Gems
200 stocks Wall Street’s best‑ranked analysts agree on
We rank 1,148 analysts on 7 years of calls and keep the ones with proven records. Gems are the stocks where several of them agree.
102 of 20020%+ below their highList of Nov 3, 2026
59.8%target hit rate, 5★ analystsvs 53.1% for the average
- #1, #2, #3 ??? backed by 32, 31 and 31 top analysts
- #125 Arista Networks (ANET): 10 top analysts, +52% to their median target, −24% from its 52‑week high
- #155 Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN): 10 top analysts, +2% to their median target, 0% from its 52‑week high
- #159 Spyre Therapeutics (SYRE): 10 top analysts, +30% to their median target, −12% from its 52‑week high
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
In this article
- How do I know if an analyst is good before following their call?
- What is a good hit rate for an analyst?
- How many ratings does an analyst need before the record means anything?
- Does an analyst’s recent record matter more?
- Why compare an analyst with their own sector?
- Is a 5-star or top-ranked analyst always reliable?
- Exent’s top 50 analysts
- Should I check how often an analyst says Sell?
- Does a good record predict future accuracy?
How do I know if an analyst is good before following their call?
Look at their record, not their rating. A good analyst has reached a clearly above-average share of price targets, over hundreds of ratings and several years, recently as well as in the past, measured against peers in the same sector. The benchmarks below come from Exent’s 7-year backtest of 958,671 ratings by the 1,148 analysts in Exent’s ranking (statistics as of Nov 2, 2026).
| Check | Benchmark (average analyst) | What “good” looks like |
|---|---|---|
| Price-target hit rate | 53.1% | Clearly above the sector median |
| Ratings behind the record | Hundreds | Hundreds of rated calls over several years |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | 56.0% | Holding up or improving |
| Stocks higher 12 months later | 64.4% | Above average, in a rising market |
| Median 12-month return after calls | +13.7% | Above average |
| Lowest point within 12 months | −22.4% average | Shallower dips along the way |
What is a good hit rate for an analyst?
Clearly above the middle, held over many ratings. Only 14.9% of analysts reached 70% or more, while 36.9% were below 50%. Among 942 ranked analysts with a measurable record in the backtest, the distribution was:
| Hit rate | Analysts | Share of analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Below 30% | 93 | 9.9% |
| 30–40% | 94 | 10.0% |
| 40–50% | 161 | 17.1% |
| 50–60% | 266 | 28.2% |
| 60–70% | 188 | 20.0% |
| 70–80% | 84 | 8.9% |
| 80% or more | 56 | 5.9% |
The hit rate here means the stock closed at or above the target within 12 months of the rating. For how the measure is built, see analyst success rate and the full analyst-accuracy study.
How many ratings does an analyst need before the record means anything?
More than most people assume. Small samples produce extreme records in both directions, which is exactly what the backtest shows:
| Ratings in the backtest | Analysts | Median hit rate | Below 30% or at 80%+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 100 | 157 | 56.8% | 52% |
| 100–299 | 105 | 59.3% | 20% |
| 300–999 | 252 | 54.8% | 10% |
| 1,000 or more | 403 | 55.5% | 5% |
A perfect record over a few dozen calls is usually luck: fewer than 100 ratings produced hit rates anywhere from 0% to 100%. Among analysts with 1,000 or more ratings, only about one in twenty landed below 30% or at 80% or more, so a record near the top of that range over a long history stands out. Not every rating carries a price target, which is why even some analysts with hundreds of ratings can show extreme hit rates.
Does an analyst’s recent record matter more?
It is a useful cross-check. Across all analysts, ratings from the last two years reached their targets 56.0% of the time, against 53.1% over seven years. Of 880 analysts with both figures, 498 had a higher recent hit rate. An analyst whose recent record has slipped well below their long-run figure may have changed coverage, or the market may have changed under them. The recent period is part of the seven years, so the two figures are not independent.
Why compare an analyst with their own sector?
Because sectors differ a lot. The median Technology analyst hit 60.0% of targets; the median Real Estate analyst 36.0%. A 55% healthcare analyst is well above the 42.6% healthcare median, while a 55% technology analyst is below the 60.0% tech median. The full table is in analyst accuracy by sector.
Is a 5-star or top-ranked analyst always reliable?
No. Star ratings and ranks combine several measures, including returns and the number of ratings, so they can diverge from the price-target hit rate. In the same backtest, 28 of the 129 five-star analysts with a measurable record hit fewer than half their targets. Some of the most reliable target-setters rank far down the list. An illustrative comparison:
| Illustrative | Analyst A | Analyst B |
|---|---|---|
| Overall rank | Top 10 | Around 900 |
| Price-target hit rate | 40% | 78% |
| Stocks higher 12 months later | 82% | 73% |
| Ratings in the record | 1,000 | 3,700 |
| Best used for | Direction of the call | Reaching the named target |
Which profile suits you depends on what you take from an analyst. Real examples of both are in the most accurate stock analysts; see also analyst star rating.
Exent’s top 50 analysts
Across 958,671 ratings, the average Wall Street analyst’s price target was reached 53.1% of the time: close to a coin flip. The spread between analysts is wide, and 14.9% of the 942 analysts with a measurable record reached 70% or more (Exent data, Nov 2, 2026).
Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking. Over the last two years, some of them reached 90% or more of their price targets. Who they are, which stocks they are calling now and how often they have been right is for members.
Should I check how often an analyst says Sell?
Yes, because it tells you how to read their Buys. Of 1,069 ranked analysts with at least 10 ratings in the latest 12 months, 713 issued no Sell at all and 59 issued only Buys. For an analyst who never says Sell, a Hold or a cut target is the negative signal. More in why analysts rarely say sell.
Does a good record predict future accuracy?
Only modestly, according to research. A 2013 study in the Review of Accounting Studies found statistically significant but economically weak persistence in analysts’ target-price accuracy. A 2011 study in the Review of Financial Studies found that rating changes from star or previously influential analysts were more likely to move prices. Track record helps; it does not guarantee the next call.
- Hit rate clearly above the sector median
- Hundreds of ratings over several years
- Recent record holding up
- Good results after calls, not just targets reached
- Agreement from other analysts with strong records
Public analyst profiles list these figures for each ranked analyst. This is general education, not personal advice.
How to check an analyst with Exent
- Stocks Radar ranks thousands of Wall Street analysts by past accuracy; each profile shows hit rate, number of ratings and returns after calls.
- Compare an analyst’s record with peers in the same sector before you act on a price target.
- Gems flags stocks where several 4★-and-above analysts agree, so one call is never the only evidence.
Frequently asked questions
In Exent’s 7-year backtest, the average analyst reached 53.1% of price targets. Only 14.9% of analysts with a measurable record reached 70% or more.
Hundreds, ideally over several years. In Exent’s data, analysts with fewer than 100 rated calls had hit rates anywhere from 0% to 100%, which mostly reflects luck.
They are a reasonable starting point. In Exent’s data, 5-star analysts had a median hit rate of 59.8%, but about a fifth of them still reached fewer than half their targets.
Only modestly. Academic research finds statistically significant but economically weak persistence in target-price accuracy, so a strong record is evidence, not a guarantee.
Exent ranks 1,148 analysts by their record. Its analyst pages show hit rate, days to hit, returns after calls and the number of ratings; the records at the top of the ranking are in Exent Gems.
Rank analysts on their own record: the share of price targets reached within 12 months against the sector median, over hundreds of ratings, with a recent record that holds up and good returns after the calls. In Exent’s 7-year backtest the average analyst reached 53.1% of targets, so a top analyst should be clearly above that.
Five figures: price-target hit rate, number of ratings, hit rate over the last two years, how the rated stocks did 12 months later, and the typical drop along the way. Compare each with the average and the sector median, not in isolation.
Judge them like any recommendation: how often they beat a benchmark, the average return above it, the number of calls, a fixed horizon, a complete record and disclosed conflicts. A high hit rate over a few dozen calls is mostly luck.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.