What Is a 5‑Star Analyst? Definition and Example
How analyst star ratings work, what separates a 5-star analyst from a 4-star one, and why 4 stars is a sensible threshold.
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What Is an Analyst’s Success Rate? Definition and Example
What an analyst success rate measures, the different ways it is calculated, and the traps that make a high number look better than it is.
Key takeaways
- An analyst’s success rate is the share of their past calls that worked, defined either as the stock moving the predicted way over a set period or as the price target being reached.
- In Exent’s 7-year backtest of 921,573 ratings, the average analyst’s price targets were reached 53.6% of the time and 64.6% of rated stocks were higher 12 months later (as of Oct 20, 2026).
- Success rate alone is easy to game: small, safe calls in a rising market score well.
- Read it next to average return per call and the number of calls.
Which stocks do Wall Street’s best‑ranked analysts agree on? See them in Exent Gems →
What is an analyst’s success rate?
It is a hit rate for an analyst’s recommendations. There are two common versions: the share of ratings where the stock moved in the predicted direction (up for buys, down for sells) over a window such as 12 months, and the share of price targets reached within the horizon.
What is a normal success rate?
| Price-target hit rate | Analysts | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Below 30% | 91 | 9.9% |
| 30–40% | 83 | 9.1% |
| 40–50% | 159 | 17.3% |
| 50–60% | 248 | 27.0% |
| 60–70% | 193 | 21.0% |
| 70–80% | 85 | 9.3% |
| 80% or more | 58 | 6.3% |
Source: Exent’s ranking of 1,121 analysts with enough rated calls, 7-year lookback, as of Oct 20, 2026 (917 of them have a measurable hit rate). Above 60% puts an analyst in roughly the top third of this list; the average analyst’s rate was 53.6%.
Why it matters
Most ratings are buys, so knowing who is usually right is the only way to turn ratings into information. A star rating that combines success rate, average return and number of ratings stops a few lucky calls topping the list; the full ranking is on the analysts page.
Common pitfalls
- Bull-market inflation: when most stocks rose, most buy calls “succeeded”. Compare with the market’s own return over the same windows.
- Small samples: 12 calls at 80% says less than 400 calls at 62%.
- Timid targets: a target 5% above the price is easy to hit and says little.
- Sector mix: the same ranking shows a median hit rate of 60.5% for technology analysts but 41.9% for healthcare analysts.
How to use it
Look for analysts with a solid hit rate, a positive average return per call and hundreds of calls, in the sector you care about. The step-by-step version is in how to judge an analyst.
See analysts’ success rates with Exent
- Stocks Radar tracks thousands of Wall Street analysts and ranks them by past accuracy. Each profile shows success rate, average return and number of ratings.
- Gems flag stocks where several top‑rated (4★+) analysts agree.
Frequently asked questions
In a 7-year backtest of 921,573 ratings, the average analyst’s price-target hit rate was 53.6%, so a rate above 60% over hundreds of calls puts an analyst in roughly the top third. Check sample size and average return too.
It is high, but only meaningful with many calls and a positive average return. A high rate built on small, safe targets adds little.
No. Past accuracy is evidence of skill, not a guarantee. Rates also shift as market conditions change.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.