The 25 S&P 500 stocks furthest below their consensus price targets at the Nov 4, 2026 close, why those gaps opened, how far analysts disagree on each, and how much weight a target has carried.
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At the Nov 4, 2026 close, Sandisk had the widest gap to its consensus price target among well‑covered S&P 500 stocks, at +118.6%, followed by NRG Energy (+107.1%), Marvell Technology (+105.0%), Micron Technology (+99.8%) and Seagate Technology (+98.5%). This table ranks what analysts’ targets imply. It is not a buy list, and a gap is not an expected return. Every member is on the S&P 500 list.
| # | Company | Ticker | Consensus target | Nov 4 close | Gap to target | Lowest target vs close | 2026 return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sandisk | SNDK | $2,267.86 | $1,037.40 | +118.6% | +49.4% | +337.0% |
| 2 | NRG Energy | NRG | $172.43 | $83.25 | +107.1% | +57.4% | −47.0% |
| 3 | Marvell Technology | MRVL | $327.52 | $159.80 | +105.0% | +18.9% | +88.3% |
| 4 | Micron Technology | MU | $1,588.85 | $795.23 | +99.8% | +50.9% | +178.8% |
| 5 | Seagate Technology | STX | $1,105.93 | $557.06 | +98.5% | +34.6% | +102.9% |
| 6 | Intel | INTC | $113.07 | $58.27 | +94.0% | +20.1% | +57.9% |
| 7 | Coherent | COHR | $374.22 | $195.09 | +91.8% | +17.9% | +5.7% |
| 8 | Western Digital | WDC | $617.15 | $323.83 | +90.6% | +25.1% | +88.2% |
| 9 | Akamai Technologies | AKAM | $160.47 | $85.93 | +86.8% | +16.4% | −1.5% |
| 10 | Ciena | CIEN | $507.42 | $272.24 | +86.4% | +27.5% | +16.4% |
| 11 | RDDT | $189.90 | $101.89 | +86.4% | +17.8% | −55.7% | |
| 12 | Oracle | ORCL | $230.19 | $123.77 | +86.0% | −23.2% | −35.6% |
| 13 | AppLovin | APP | $490.00 | $271.75 | +80.3% | +19.6% | −59.7% |
| 14 | Applied Materials | AMAT | $659.83 | $369.40 | +78.6% | +43.5% | +44.3% |
| 15 | Comfort Systems USA | FIX | $1,935.33 | $1,091.31 | +77.3% | +65.7% | +17.1% |
| 16 | Vertiv | VRT | $361.94 | $205.55 | +76.1% | +46.0% | +27.0% |
| 17 | Albemarle | ALB | $167.09 | $94.97 | +75.9% | +14.8% | −32.3% |
| 18 | Lam Research | LRCX | $380.41 | $221.43 | +71.8% | +31.0% | +29.7% |
| 19 | Nvidia | NVDA | $339.17 | $200.13 | +69.5% | +4.9% | +7.6% |
| 20 | Lumentum | LITE | $1,048.15 | $626.75 | +67.2% | +22.9% | +70.0% |
| 21 | Vistra | VST | $197.94 | $120.29 | +64.5% | +40.5% | −25.1% |
| 22 | Generac | GNRC | $301.93 | $189.32 | +59.5% | +32.0% | +38.8% |
| 23 | Caterpillar | CAT | $935.36 | $591.30 | +58.2% | +26.7% | +4.1% |
| 24 | Broadcom | AVGO | $514.37 | $325.48 | +58.0% | +7.5% | −5.4% |
| 25 | Cummins | CMI | $740.00 | $471.84 | +56.8% | +28.9% | −6.6% |
Gap is the consensus target divided by the Nov 4 close, minus one. 2026 return runs from the Dec 31, 2025 close and includes dividends. Sandisk’s figures are pre‑split: its board approved an 8‑for‑1 split, with split‑adjusted trading expected from Nov 20. The list changes daily, because the price in the denominator does.
Mostly because the price fell after the targets were set. 24 of the top 25 closed at least 30% below their 2026 high, against 15.3% of all members. The median top‑25 stock closed 48.9% below its high; the median member, 9.5%.
The fall does not always show in the year’s return. Only 6 of the 25 are down 20% or more in 2026, against 7.8% of all members, and 5 are down 30% or more, against 4.3%. Sixteen are still up for the year, including Sandisk (+337.0%) and Micron (+178.8%). Across 486 members, the correlation between 2026 return and gap was just −0.03. Against distance from the 2026 high it was −0.76.
| Nov 4 close vs 2026 high | Members | Median gap to target | In the top 25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Within 5% of its 2026 high | 169 | +1.6% | 0 |
| 5–10% below | 79 | +8.2% | 0 |
| 10–20% below | 105 | +14.3% | 1 |
| 20–30% below | 61 | +24.7% | 0 |
| 30–40% below | 37 | +34.4% | 5 |
| 40% or more below | 38 | +73.9% | 19 |
Targets also lag. For all 25 stocks, the Nov 4 close was below the median price on the days their last 90 days of targets were published; the median shortfall was 16.2%. Micron’s newest target in the data is dated Oct 7, when the stock was at $1,045.56; it closed at $795.23 on Nov 4. Marvell shows the arithmetic: it fell 26.8% from $218.34 on Oct 29 to $159.80. With today’s consensus held still, that alone moves its gap from +50.0% to +105.0%.
Some of these names also appear among the worst‑performing S&P 500 stocks of 2026, others among the best performers. Those pages use their own end dates, so returns differ slightly from this table.
The median member closed 8.7% below its consensus target, and 97 of 489 (19.8%) closed above it. So a gap of 25% or more is already unusual: 104 members reach it, and 38 reach 50%. Sector medians run from +24.4% in technology to +2.2% in healthcare, though healthcare also has the most members priced above consensus.
| Sector | Members | Median gap | Close above consensus | In the top 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 89 | +24.4% | 14 | 16 |
| Energy | 22 | +23.2% | 0 | 0 |
| Communication Services | 18 | +22.8% | 1 | 1 |
| Industrials | 73 | +13.8% | 12 | 5 |
| Basic Materials | 22 | +12.1% | 2 | 1 |
| Real Estate | 29 | +9.2% | 5 | 0 |
| Financial Services | 69 | +6.2% | 15 | 0 |
| Consumer Cyclical | 49 | +5.9% | 10 | 0 |
| Utilities | 31 | +4.5% | 6 | 2 |
| Consumer Defensive | 29 | +2.4% | 10 | 0 |
| Healthcare | 58 | +2.2% | 22 | 0 |
On direction, nearly all; on size, far less. In 24 of the top 25, even the lowest target sits above the Nov 4 close, and the median stock’s lowest target is 26.7% above it. Oracle is the exception, with a low of $95 against a $123.77 close. Across all 489 members, the lowest target is below the close in 328 cases (67.1%).
That looks like conviction, but stale targets can produce it too: a low set before a fall can still sit above the new price. The range is wide as well. The median top‑25 stock’s highest target is 1.95 times its lowest, against 1.36 times for the median member, and Oracle’s is 3.42 times. A consensus price target hides that spread.
As one input, not a forecast. In Exent’s 7‑year backtest of 816,775 targets, the average analyst’s target was reached within 12 months 53.1% of the time, as of Nov 9, 2026. Average implied upside when targets were set was 66.6%; the median stock return 12 months after a rating was +13.5%. A target hit is also not a return, since a stock can touch its target and give the gain back. The method is in are analyst price targets accurate?
Those figures cover all ratings, not stocks at the top of a list like this. We have no clean figure for what high‑gap stocks did next, and a table built from today’s members would leave out companies that kept falling and left the index, so we do not publish one.
A consensus also averages everyone. 14.3% of 965 analysts with a measurable record reached 70% or more of their targets, while 37.2% reached fewer than half, and both groups count equally in the mean. Records are on the analyst rankings. Points investors often check (education, not advice):
Data. Our calculation on daily closes through Nov 4, 2026 and consensus targets from Exent analyst data, pulled Nov 5. Highs are closing highs from Jan 2. Consensus figures differ by provider, so other sites can show different targets. This page is refreshed on the first trading day of each month.
Members. The S&P 500 list with Okta in for Kenvue from Nov 4: 503 lines, share classes counted as listed. 489 are in the index‑wide figures and 378 could rank. Three stocks lack a Dec 31 close, so return statistics cover 486.
Left out, by rule. Four have no target. Five were removed because a recent split or spin‑off left old‑basis and new‑basis targets mixed, such as Monster Beverage: targets near $100 before its 2‑for‑1 split and near $50 after it would have shown a false +73.7%. Five had one extreme target pulling the mean more than 15% from the median, such as Smurfit Westrock. A further 111 stay in index‑wide figures but cannot rank, having fewer than 10 covering analysts or fewer than 5 targets in the last quarter; those include Flex (+99.4%) and Teradyne (+86.5%).
All figures describe a date. This is not a forecast and not a recommendation for any stock.
A consensus averages every analyst, good and bad records alike. Which targets come from the best‑ranked analysts, and where several of them agree, is locked for Gems members: $1.95 for a 3-day trial. This page says nothing about whether any stock here is in Gems.
Among well-covered S&P 500 stocks at the Nov 4, 2026 close: Sandisk (+118.6%), NRG Energy (+107.1%), Marvell Technology (+105.0%), Micron Technology (+99.8%) and Seagate Technology (+98.5%). These are gaps to consensus targets, not forecasts, and they change daily with the price.
A gap to a price target does not show that a stock is undervalued. It shows the price is below analysts’ average target, and on Nov 4, 2026, 24 of the 25 widest gaps belonged to stocks at least 30% below their 2026 high. Many of those targets were set at higher prices.
No. The average analyst’s target was reached 53.1% of the time within 12 months in Exent’s 7-year backtest, as of Nov 9, 2026, and a target hit is not the same as a return. This page gives no buy or sell advice.
The median member closed 8.7% below its consensus target on Nov 4, 2026, and 97 of 489 members (19.8%) closed above theirs. Technology had the widest sector median at +24.4% and healthcare the narrowest at +2.2%.
Often a stock split. If targets set before a split are averaged with targets set after it, the consensus overstates the gap. Monster Beverage split 2-for-1 in August 2026 and would have shown +73.7%, so it is left out of the ranking here.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.