How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
Coherent Corp., technology (market value $33.4 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on COHR say now? See it in Exent Gems →
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Coherent Corp. (COHR) returned +247.6% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 171.7 percentage points, or +28.3% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | COHR | S&P 500 | COHR per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +59.4% | +12.0% | +59.4% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +610.5% | +87.4% | +92.2% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +247.6% | +75.9% | +28.3% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 10 years | +656.5% | +316.3% | +22.4% | +15.3% | Beat |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
COHR is in the S&P 500 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 22 analysts published 171 ratings on COHR. Their latest calls were 77% Buy, 23% Hold and 0% Sell. 17 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $404.75 (range $350.00–$450.00), +88.6% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 63.0% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 63.3% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 70.9% |
| Dave Kang | B. Riley Securities | 5.0★ | 59.1% |
| Blayne Curtis | Jefferies | 5.0★ | 62.8% |
Other analysts covering COHR: Michael Genovese · Meta Marshall · Tim Savageaux · Papa Talla Sylla · Sean O'Loughlin · Thomas O'Malley
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on COHR are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
COHR beat the S&P 500 in 4 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | COHR | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +14.0% | +11.7% | +2.3% |
| 2025 | +94.8% | +17.7% | +77.1% |
| 2024 | +117.6% | +24.9% | +92.7% |
| 2023 | +24.0% | +26.2% | −2.2% |
| 2022 | −48.6% | −18.2% | −30.4% |
| 2021 | −10.0% | +28.7% | −38.7% |
| 2020 | +125.6% | +18.3% | +107.3% |
| 2019 | +3.7% | +31.2% | −27.5% |
| 2018 | −30.9% | −4.6% | −26.3% |
| 2017 | +58.3% | +21.7% | +36.6% |
Over 5 years, COHR had a Sharpe ratio of 0.66 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 54.5% and its beta 2.21: it tended to move about 2.2× as much as the market.
| Metric | COHR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +28.3% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 54.5% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.10 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −59.2% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 2.21 | 1.00 |
COHR’s deepest fall in the crises below was −68.2% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | COHR | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −68.2% | −56.5% | −$68,180 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −39.5% | −20.2% | −$39,450 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −43.0% | −34.1% | −$43,010 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −56.3% | −25.4% | −$56,340 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −41.4% | −19.0% | −$41,440 |
| Window | COHR max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −60.2% |
| Last 3 years | −60.2% |
| Last 5 years | −62.9% |
| Last 10 years | −72.2% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, COHR’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.63, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.67, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.39 and with gold (GLD) 0.17.
Adding a 5% COHR position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 16.5%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | −0.17 | CAT | 0.67 |
| COP | −0.16 | AMAT | 0.65 |
| XOM | −0.14 | LRCX | 0.64 |
| REGN | −0.14 | WDC | 0.64 |
| MRSH | −0.11 | GLW | 0.64 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Target raised Buy | Papa Talla Sylla |
| Nov 5 | Target cut Hold | Dave Kang |
| Nov 5 | Target cut Buy | Sean O'Loughlin |
| Nov 5 | Target cut Hold | Vivek Arya |
| Nov 2 | Upgrade Hold → Buy | Tim Savageaux |
| Oct 30 | Target cut Hold | Dave Kang |
| Oct 30 | Target cut Hold | Meta Marshall |
| Oct 15 | Target cut Hold | Dave Kang |
| Sep 30 | New coverage Buy | Daniel Zhu |
| Sep 29 | New coverage Buy | Daniel Zhu |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on COHR in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Of the 459 analyst price targets on COHR set from 2019 until a year ago, 74.1% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 5.5 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 44 days. The median target sat 20.7% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said COHR would be by now: a year ago, 11 analysts had a price target on COHR, and the median of their latest targets was $170.00. On Oct 20, 2026 COHR closed at $231.82, 36.4% above it.
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of COHR | 20 | +1.4% | +19.2% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of COHR | 16 | −3.3% | −4.0% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on COHR through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
COHR beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 12, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 10.5% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 6 of the 12 reports. In 6 of the 12 beats the stock still fell.
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | $1.74 vs $1.62 | +3.1% | −0.4% |
| May 6, 2026 | $1.41 vs $1.40 | +1.3% | −4.9% |
| Feb 4, 2026 | $1.29 vs $1.21 | +2.7% | −8.7% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $1.16 vs $1.04 | +1.7% | +23.8% |
| Aug 13, 2025 | $1.00 vs $0.92 | −1.2% | −21.4% |
| May 7, 2025 | $0.91 vs $0.86 | −0.2% | +1.1% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | $0.95 vs $0.69 | +4.8% | +14.5% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | $0.74 vs $0.61 | +2.6% | +17.0% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
In fiscal 2026 (the year to Jun 30, 2026), 11.4% of COHR’s $7.1 billion revenue came from China, down from 11.7% in fiscal 2025. By region: North America 65.1%; Europe 11.4%; China 11.4%; Other Countries 6.6%.
By business, the largest segment was Datacenter & Communications, with 74.1% of $7.1 billion revenue.
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Datacenter & Communications | $5.3 billion | 74.1% | — |
| Industrial | $1.8 billion | 25.9% | — |
From COHR’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2026 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 9 members of Congress had disclosed 25 trades in COHR (14 buys and 11 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Aug 18, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Sheldon Whitehouse | Buy | $15,001–$50,000 |
| May 1, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Feb 4, 2026 | Markwayne Mullin | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Markwayne Mullin | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Markwayne Mullin | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
3 trades in COHR disclosed in the last 30 days are in Exent Radar.
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, COHR insiders made no open‑market purchases and 25 sales worth $42.9 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Dec 2, 2024.
After the 6 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, COHR beat the S&P 500 by an average of 14.1 percentage points over the next 12 months; 83% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2024 | Anderson James Robert | Director, officer: CEO & President | $51,360 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Anderson James Robert | Director, officer: CEO & President | $51,989 |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Anderson James Robert | Director, officer: CEO & President | $35,275 |
| Sep 3, 2024 | Anderson James Robert | Director, officer: CEO & President | $36,685 |
| Jun 14, 2023 | Motley David L | Director | $299,741 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 5.87% of COHR’s float was sold short: 11.0 million shares, or 1.7 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 3.96%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so COHR is more heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,386 institutions reported holding COHR in 13F filings, up 215 from the quarter before and up from 689 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 111.0% of COHR’s shares. In the quarter 845 institutions added to their positions and 373 cut them.
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
COHR’s diluted share count rose 69.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2026 and rose 26.2% in fiscal 2026 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $186.5 million in fiscal 2026, 2.6% of revenue. COHR did not buy back shares in fiscal 2026.
Weighted‑average diluted shares from COHR’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, COHR’s Altman Z‑score was 4.83, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 7 out of 9; 40% of scored stocks reach 7 or more.
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
On its latest earnings call (Aug 12, 2026), COHR’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 9 times, against 10 on the call before (May 6, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was data centers (31). Tariffs and recession did not come up.
| Mentions | Aug ’26 | May ’26 | Feb ’26 | Nov ’25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 9 | 10 | 5 | 7 |
| AI agents | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Data centers | 31 | 29 | 26 | 21 |
| Tariffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| China | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Recession | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 64 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held COHR. Its largest weight is in FDG (American Century Focused Dynamic Growth ETF), at 2.49% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of COHR |
|---|---|---|
| FDG | American Century Focused Dynamic Growth ETF | 2.49% |
| CHAT | Tidal Trust II - Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF | 2.15% |
| SOXQ | Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF | 2.10% |
| VOT | Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund | 1.33% |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 0.83% |
| VO | Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.56% |
| CGGR | Capital Group Growth ETF | 0.36% |
| IWS | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF | 0.34% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
James R. Anderson, COHR’s Chief Executive Officer and President, received total pay of $3.7 million for fiscal 2025, down 96.3% from $101.5 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Oct 2, 2025. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so COHR’s CEO earned less than most.
| Pay component | Amount | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Salary | $1.1 million | 28.5% |
| Incentive plan (cash) | $2.7 million | 71.3% |
| Other | $8,377 | 0.2% |
| Other top executives | Role | Total pay, 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Sherri Luther | Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer | $30.5 million |
| Rob Beard | Chief Legal and Global Affairs Officer and Secretary | $14.6 million |
| Julie Eng | Chief Technology Officer | $5.4 million |
| Giovanni Barbarossa | Chief Strategy Officer | $5.0 million |
Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For COHR that is QQQ (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | +135.9% | 28.0% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | +704.3% | 51.1% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | +64.0% | 26.5% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | +570.0% | 44.7% |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | +1,211% | 51.9% |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | +319.9% | 58.3% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | +611.4% | 64.4% |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | +45.7% | 40.4% |
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Wall Street’s average COHR price target is 88.6% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on COHR say now in Exent Gems.
Yes. COHR returned +656.5% (+22.4% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, COHR (Coherent Corp.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
COHR fell −68.2% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
COHR fell −43.0% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
COHR fell −56.3% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, COHR’s Sharpe ratio was 0.66 and its Sortino ratio 1.10, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
COHR’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 68.1%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 2.21.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with COHR over the last 60 months were LMT (−0.17), COP (−0.16), XOM (−0.14). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.39 and with gold (GLD) 0.17.
COHR beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 12, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. The stock moved 10.5% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
James R. Anderson, COHR’s Chief Executive Officer and President, received $3.7 million in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $1.1 million salary and $0 in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Oct 2, 2025. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.
In fiscal 2026 (the year to Jun 30, 2026), 11.4% of COHR’s $7.1 billion revenue came from China, about $811.5 million, down from 11.7% in fiscal 2025. Regions are as COHR reports them in its annual filings.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 9 members of Congress had disclosed 25 trades in COHR (14 buys and 11 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 5.87% of COHR’s float was sold short (11.0 million shares, 1.7 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 3.96%.
Yes. COHR’s diluted share count rose 69.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2026 and rose 26.2% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 2.6% of revenue.
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on COHR are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.