How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
ETFsInsight
VOT ETF vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund (market value $33.2 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns. Data as of Oct 30, 2026.
What changed since Oct 26
Exent re-checks this page every day.
−1.2% 1‑year return through Oct 30 (was +0.1%)
Key takeaways
- VOT returned +15.5% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.06 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −60.3% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
- Five‑year volatility was 21.3% and beta 1.16.
What is your own portfolio exposed to? Check it with Exent →
In this article
Did VOT beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund (VOT) returned +15.5% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 60.4 percentage points, or +2.9% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | VOT | S&P 500 | VOT per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −1.2% | +12.0% | −1.2% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +59.8% | +87.4% | +16.9% | +23.3% | Lagged |
| 5 years | +15.5% | +75.9% | +2.9% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 10 years | +200.1% | +316.3% | +11.6% | +15.3% | Lagged |
- 1 year
- VOT
- −1.2%
- S&P 500
- +12.0%
- VOT per year
- −1.2%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Lagged
- 3 years
- VOT
- +59.8%
- S&P 500
- +87.4%
- VOT per year
- +16.9%
- S&P 500 per year
- +23.3%
- Result
- Lagged
- 5 years
- VOT
- +15.5%
- S&P 500
- +75.9%
- VOT per year
- +2.9%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Lagged
- 10 years
- VOT
- +200.1%
- S&P 500
- +316.3%
- VOT per year
- +11.6%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.3%
- Result
- Lagged
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
Is VOT good for retirement?
VOT can be a core retirement holding. It is US mid-cap growth (Morningstar US Mid Cap Growth Index) at 0.05%. The growth half of mid caps (about 117 stocks); a style tilt rather than a core.
Pros
- 0.05% for mid-cap growth, with low turnover (17%).
Cons
- Expensive and volatile: P/E 35x (Vanguard) and a 33.2% 5-year drawdown with only 5.0% a year return (Exent market data).
When it is the wrong choice: If you need stability within 10 years of retirement: mid-cap growth is among the bumpier equity styles.
Similar ETFs to compare
| ETF | Expense ratio | Why consider it |
|---|---|---|
| VOT | 0.05% | this fund |
| VO | 0.03% | all mid caps, value and growth |
| IJH | 0.05% | S&P MidCap 400 |
Fits: Investing for retirement in your 20s. How to choose: Best ETFs for Retirement in 2026: How to Choose by Age and Situation.
Source: the benchmark, Morningstar US Mid Cap Growth Index, and the fund’s mechanics were checked on the Vanguard VOT fact sheet on Oct 25, 2026. Expense ratios are Exent market data as of Oct 25, 2026; returns and drawdowns quoted here are 5‑year monthly total returns to September 30, 2026 (Exent market data). Educational, not a recommendation for your situation.
VOT returns by year vs the S&P 500
VOT beat the S&P 500 in 3 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | VOT | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +3.1% | +11.7% | −8.6% |
| 2025 | +10.7% | +17.7% | −7.0% |
| 2024 | +16.4% | +24.9% | −8.5% |
| 2023 | +23.1% | +26.2% | −3.1% |
| 2022 | −28.9% | −18.2% | −10.7% |
| 2021 | +20.5% | +28.7% | −8.2% |
| 2020 | +34.5% | +18.3% | +16.2% |
| 2019 | +33.8% | +31.2% | +2.6% |
| 2018 | −5.6% | −4.6% | −1.0% |
| 2017 | +21.8% | +21.7% | +0.1% |
VOT risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, VOT had a Sharpe ratio of 0.06 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 19.5% and its beta 1.16: it tended to move about 1.2× as much as the market.
| Metric | VOT | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.9% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 19.5% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.06 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.08 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −33.2% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.16 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
How VOT behaved in past crashes
VOT’s deepest fall in the crises below was −60.3% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | VOT | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −60.3% | −56.5% | −$60,260 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −21.8% | −20.2% | −$21,830 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −36.4% | −34.1% | −$36,350 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −33.2% | −25.4% | −$33,180 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −20.8% | −19.0% | −$20,790 |
| Window | VOT max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −16.0% |
| Last 3 years | −21.8% |
| Last 5 years | −37.2% |
| Last 10 years | −37.6% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with VOT, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, VOT’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.92, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.85, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.56 and with gold (GLD) 0.14.
Adding a 5% VOT position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.6%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| REGN | −0.06 | MCO | 0.78 |
| XOM | −0.05 | APH | 0.74 |
| LMT | −0.04 | GS | 0.74 |
| COP | −0.03 | BLK | 0.73 |
| MRK | −0.02 | DASH | 0.72 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
What does VOT hold?
As of Oct 20, 2026, VOT held 117 positions; its 10 largest made up 21.2% of the fund. The largest was NET (Cloudflare, Inc.) at 2.65%.
| Holding | Name | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| NET | Cloudflare, Inc. | 2.65% |
| PWR | Quanta Services, Inc. | 2.28% |
| VRT | Vertiv Holdings Co | 2.20% |
| DDOG | Datadog, Inc. | 2.17% |
| HWM | Howmet Aerospace Inc. | 2.13% |
| HOOD | Robinhood Markets, Inc. | 2.10% |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings Inc. | 2.06% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 2.02% |
| BE | Bloom Energy Corporation | 1.83% |
| ROST | Ross Stores, Inc. | 1.77% |
From the fund’s latest published holdings. Overlap by weight adds up, for every stock both funds hold, the smaller of its two weights: 100% would mean the same portfolio. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for VOT
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For VOT that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other popular ETFs
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPCX | SPAC and New Issue ETF | +455.5% | 8.3% |
| VTI | Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF Shares | +68.1% | 17.4% |
| VOO | Vanguard S&P 500 ETF | +76.5% | 16.8% |
| IVV | iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | +76.5% | 16.9% |
| SPY | State Street SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | +75.9% | 17.0% |
| 1557.T | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | +78.6% | 20.7% |
| VXUS | Vanguard Total Intl Stock Idx Fund | +47.5% | 16.0% |
| QQQ | Invesco QQQ Trust | +84.3% | 22.3% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Holdings and weights are the fund’s latest published holdings; ETF overlap compares those holdings stock by stock.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
See what VOT does to your own portfolio
- Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
- Exent replays your whole portfolio, VOT included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
- It finds holdings that move together with VOT and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
- Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
VOT can be a core retirement holding. It is US mid-cap growth (Morningstar US Mid Cap Growth Index) at 0.05%. The growth half of mid caps (about 117 stocks); a style tilt rather than a core. It is a poor fit if you need stability within 10 years of retirement: mid-cap growth is among the bumpier equity styles.
VOT charges 0.05% a year. Lower-cost ETFs to compare: VO at 0.03% (all mid caps, value and growth). Expense ratios as of Oct 25, 2026 (issuer data where available, otherwise Exent market data); check that the exposure, not just the fee, matches what you want.
No. VOT returned +200.1% (+11.6% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
VOT fell −60.3% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
VOT fell −36.4% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
VOT fell −33.2% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, VOT’s Sharpe ratio was 0.06 and its Sortino ratio 0.08, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
VOT’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 21.3%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.16.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with VOT over the last 60 months were REGN (−0.06), XOM (−0.05), LMT (−0.04). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.56 and with gold (GLD) 0.14.
Sources
- Vanguard Morningstar Mid-Cap Growth ETF (VOT) fact sheet — Vanguard, Oct 25, 2026
What would VOT do to your portfolio?
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.