How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
Lumentum Holdings Inc., technology (market value $75.6 billion), a member of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) returned +1,063% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 972.6 percentage points, or +63.3% a year against +13.7%.
| Period | LITE | S&P 500 | LITE per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +496.9% | +15.7% | +496.9% | +15.7% | Beat |
| 3 years | +2,050% | +85.0% | +178.1% | +22.8% | Beat |
| 5 years | +1,063% | +90.0% | +63.3% | +13.7% | Beat |
| 10 years | +2,225% | +312.9% | +37.0% | +15.2% | Beat |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
LITE is in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the lists show every member’s return against the index.
LITE beat the S&P 500 in 5 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | LITE | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | +163.5% | +12.7% | +150.8% |
| 2025 | +339.1% | +17.7% | +321.4% |
| 2024 | +60.1% | +24.9% | +35.2% |
| 2023 | +0.5% | +26.2% | −25.7% |
| 2022 | −50.7% | −18.2% | −32.5% |
| 2021 | +11.6% | +28.7% | −17.1% |
| 2020 | +19.5% | +18.3% | +1.2% |
| 2019 | +88.8% | +31.2% | +57.6% |
| 2018 | −14.1% | −4.6% | −9.5% |
| 2017 | +26.5% | +21.7% | +4.8% |
Over 5 years, LITE had a Sharpe ratio of 0.99 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 63.8% and its beta 1.52: it tended to move about 1.5× as much as the market.
| Metric | LITE | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +63.3% | +13.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 63.8% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.99 | 0.67 |
| Sortino ratio | 2.47 | 1.08 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −62.9% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.52 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
LITE’s deepest fall in the crises below was −40.6% in the 2018 trade-war selloff, against −20.2% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | LITE | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −40.6% | −20.2% | −$40,620 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −28.8% | −34.1% | −$28,750 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −36.3% | −25.4% | −$36,280 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −35.9% | −19.0% | −$35,880 |
| Window | LITE max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −28.7% |
| Last 3 years | −50.6% |
| Last 5 years | −66.5% |
| Last 10 years | −66.9% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, LITE’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.37, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.35, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.35 and with gold (GLD) 0.18.
Adding a 5% LITE position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 16.3%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADP | −0.12 | GLW | 0.53 |
| LMT | −0.07 | MAR | 0.47 |
| MRSH | −0.04 | CAT | 0.43 |
| PANW | −0.02 | WDC | 0.42 |
| MDLZ | 0.00 | PH | 0.40 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 24 analysts published 264 ratings on LITE. Their latest calls were 78% Buy, 22% Hold and 0% Sell. 18 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $708.57 (range $455.00–$1040.00), −16.7% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0★ | 63.6% | ||
| 5.0★ | 62.0% | ||
| 5.0★ | 64.1% | ||
| 5.0★ | 56.6% | ||
| 5.0★ | 64.9% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on LITE are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 28 | Target raised Buy | Papa Talla Sylla |
| Aug 31 | New coverage Buy | Gianmarco Conti |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on LITE in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Of the 435 analyst price targets on LITE set from 2019 until a year ago, 71.5% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 2.9 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 70 days. The median target sat 21.1% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said LITE would be by now: a year ago, 13 analysts had a price target on LITE, and the median of their latest targets was $230.00. On Oct 20, 2026 LITE closed at $822.14, 257.5% above it.
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of LITE | 18 | +4.1% | +19.1% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of LITE | 13 | −3.6% | +2.8% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on LITE through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
LITE beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 11, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 9.6% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 7 of the 12 reports. In 5 of the 12 beats the stock still fell. The next report is expected on Nov 5, 2026.
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | $3.23 vs $2.97 | +1.9% | +14.6% |
| May 5, 2026 | $2.37 vs $2.27 | −0.2% | −3.3% |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $1.67 vs $1.41 | +2.1% | +9.9% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $1.10 vs $1.03 | +1.4% | +16.6% |
| Aug 12, 2025 | $0.88 vs $0.81 | +2.2% | +4.5% |
| May 6, 2025 | $0.57 vs $0.50 | +1.7% | +4.9% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $0.42 vs $0.34 | +3.3% | −3.7% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $0.18 vs $0.12 | +3.6% | +16.5% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
In fiscal 2026 (the year to Jun 27, 2026), 13.7% of LITE’s $5.9 billion revenue came from China, up from 12.7% in fiscal 2025. By region: Asia Pacific 29.9%; Americas 18.5%; United States 10.7%; Thailand 10.7%.
By business, the largest segment was Systems, with 66.5% of $3.0 billion revenue.
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Systems | $2.0 billion | 66.5% | — |
| Components | $1.0 billion | 33.5% | — |
From LITE’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2026 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 6 members of Congress had disclosed 11 trades in LITE (8 buys and 3 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Jul 17, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 22, 2026 | Josh Gottheimer | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Alan Armstrong | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 23, 2022 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 5, 2022 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 26, 2021 | Thomas Carper | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 21, 2021 | Susie Lee | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 4, 2020 | Susie Lee | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 19, 2020 | Susie Lee | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, LITE insiders made no open‑market purchases and 175 sales, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 8.36% of LITE’s float was sold short: 7.4 million shares, or 1.5 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 11.48%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so LITE is more heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,408 institutions reported holding LITE in 13F filings, up 244 from the quarter before and up from 525 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 111.6% of LITE’s shares. In the quarter 911 institutions added to their positions and 331 cut them.
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
LITE’s diluted share count rose 0.5% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2026 and rose 7.2% in fiscal 2026 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $170.2 million in fiscal 2026, 5.6% of revenue. LITE spent $102.0 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 0.15% of its market value; stock pay equaled 166.9% of the buybacks.
Weighted‑average diluted shares from LITE’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, LITE’s Altman Z‑score was 13.43, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 5 out of 9; 80% of scored stocks reach 5 or more.
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
On its latest earnings call (Aug 11, 2026), LITE’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 9 times, against 3 on the call before (May 5, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was china (4). Tariffs and recession did not come up.
| Mentions | Aug ’26 | May ’26 | Feb ’26 | Nov ’25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 9 | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| AI agents | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Data centers | 3 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| Tariffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| China | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Recession | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 59 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held LITE. Its largest weight is in CHAT (Tidal Trust II - Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF), at 3.33% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of LITE |
|---|---|---|
| CHAT | Tidal Trust II - Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF | 3.33% |
| VOT | Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund | 2.06% |
| IWP | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF | 1.92% |
| VO | Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.86% |
| SPMO | Invesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF | 0.86% |
| MTUM | iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF | 0.70% |
| FBCG | Fidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF | 0.58% |
| IWR | iShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF | 0.48% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
Michael Hurlston, LITE’s President and Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $15.4 million for fiscal 2026, down 44.4% from $27.7 million for fiscal 2025, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Oct 6, 2026. 80% of it came as stock and option awards, valued when they were granted rather than when they pay out. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so LITE’s CEO earned less than most.
| Pay component | Amount | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Salary | $900,000 | 5.8% |
| Stock and option awards | $12.3 million | 79.9% |
| Incentive plan (cash) | $2.2 million | 14.2% |
| Other | $21,444 | 0.1% |
| Other top executives | Role | Total pay, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Wajid Ali | Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer | $8.9 million |
| Wupen Yuen | President, Global Business Units | $8.9 million |
| Vincent Retort | Executive Vice President, Global Reliability & Quality | $7.5 million |
| Jae Kim | Senior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary | $4.9 million |
Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For LITE that is QQQ (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | +1,004% | 51.1% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | +141.1% | 27.8% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | +89.6% | 26.5% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | +688.5% | 44.0% |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | +1,437% | 51.9% |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | +494.5% | 56.7% |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | +145.0% | 51.2% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | +678.1% | 64.4% |
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Yes. LITE returned +2,225% (+37.0% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is also in the Nasdaq-100.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
LITE fell −28.8% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
LITE fell −36.3% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, LITE’s Sharpe ratio was 0.99 and its Sortino ratio 2.47, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.
LITE’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 59.3%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.52.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with LITE over the last 60 months were ADP (−0.12), LMT (−0.07), MRSH (−0.04). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.35 and with gold (GLD) 0.18.
LITE beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 11, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. The stock moved 9.6% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Nov 5, 2026.
Michael Hurlston, LITE’s President and Chief Executive Officer, received $15.4 million in total pay for fiscal 2026, including a $900,000 salary and $12.3 million in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Oct 6, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.
In fiscal 2026 (the year to Jun 27, 2026), 13.7% of LITE’s $5.9 billion revenue came from China, about $801.6 million, up from 12.7% in fiscal 2025. Regions are as LITE reports them in its annual filings.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 6 members of Congress had disclosed 11 trades in LITE (8 buys and 3 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 8.36% of LITE’s float was sold short (7.4 million shares, 1.5 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 11.48%.
Yes. LITE’s diluted share count rose 0.5% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2026 and rose 7.2% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 5.6% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $102.0 million.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.