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LITE Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

Lumentum Holdings Inc., technology (market value $75.6 billion), a member of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 12

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

78% Buy ratings (was 77%)

Key takeaways

  • LITE returned +1,063% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +90.0% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.99 against 0.67 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −40.6% in the 2018 trade-war selloff (S&P 500: −20.2%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 59.3% and beta 1.52.
  • 24 analysts rated it in the past year; 78% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • LITE beat earnings estimates in 12 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 9.6% on average, up or down, around each report.

Did LITE beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) returned +1,063% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 972.6 percentage points, or +63.3% a year against +13.7%.

PeriodLITES&P 500LITE per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year+496.9%+15.7%+496.9%+15.7%Beat
3 years+2,050%+85.0%+178.1%+22.8%Beat
5 years+1,063%+90.0%+63.3%+13.7%Beat
10 years+2,225%+312.9%+37.0%+15.2%Beat
  • 1 year
    LITE
    +496.9%
    S&P 500
    +15.7%
    LITE per year
    +496.9%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.7%
    Result
    Beat
  • 3 years
    LITE
    +2,050%
    S&P 500
    +85.0%
    LITE per year
    +178.1%
    S&P 500 per year
    +22.8%
    Result
    Beat
  • 5 years
    LITE
    +1,063%
    S&P 500
    +90.0%
    LITE per year
    +63.3%
    S&P 500 per year
    +13.7%
    Result
    Beat
  • 10 years
    LITE
    +2,225%
    S&P 500
    +312.9%
    LITE per year
    +37.0%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.2%
    Result
    Beat

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

LITE is in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the lists show every member’s return against the index.

LITE returns by year vs the S&P 500

LITE beat the S&P 500 in 5 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

YearLITES&P 500Difference
2026 (to Sep 30, 2026)+163.5%+12.7%+150.8%
2025+339.1%+17.7%+321.4%
2024+60.1%+24.9%+35.2%
2023+0.5%+26.2%−25.7%
2022−50.7%−18.2%−32.5%
2021+11.6%+28.7%−17.1%
2020+19.5%+18.3%+1.2%
2019+88.8%+31.2%+57.6%
2018−14.1%−4.6%−9.5%
2017+26.5%+21.7%+4.8%

LITE risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, LITE had a Sharpe ratio of 0.99 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 63.8% and its beta 1.52: it tended to move about 1.5× as much as the market.

MetricLITES&P 500
Annual return+63.3%+13.7%
Volatility (annualized)63.8%15.7%
Sharpe ratio0.990.67
Sortino ratio2.471.08
Max drawdown (month-end)−62.9%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5001.521.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How LITE behaved in past crashes

LITE’s deepest fall in the crises below was −40.6% in the 2018 trade-war selloff, against −20.2% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisLITES&P 500Loss on $100,000
2018 trade-war selloff−40.6%−20.2%−$40,620
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−28.8%−34.1%−$28,750
2022 inflation bear market−36.3%−25.4%−$36,280
2025 tariff selloff−35.9%−19.0%−$35,880
WindowLITE max drawdown
Last 1 year−28.7%
Last 3 years−50.6%
Last 5 years−66.5%
Last 10 years−66.9%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with LITE, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, LITE’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.37, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.35, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.35 and with gold (GLD) 0.18.

Adding a 5% LITE position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 16.3%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
ADP−0.12GLW0.53
LMT−0.07MAR0.47
MRSH−0.04CAT0.43
PANW−0.02WDC0.42
MDLZ0.00PH0.40

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

What Wall Street analysts say about LITE

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 24 analysts published 264 ratings on LITE. Their latest calls were 78% Buy, 22% Hold and 0% Sell. 18 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $708.57 (range $455.00–$1040.00), −16.7% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
5.0★63.6%
5.0★62.0%
5.0★64.1%
5.0★56.6%
5.0★64.9%

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on LITE are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

Latest LITE upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

DateRating and targetAnalyst
Sep 28Target raised
Buy
Target $1,400, was $1,200
Papa Talla Sylla
Citi
Aug 31New coverage
Buy
Target $1,200
Gianmarco Conti
Deutsche Bank

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on LITE in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get LITE right?

Of the 435 analyst price targets on LITE set from 2019 until a year ago, 71.5% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 2.9 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 70 days. The median target sat 21.1% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said LITE would be by now: a year ago, 13 analysts had a price target on LITE, and the median of their latest targets was $230.00. On Oct 20, 2026 LITE closed at $822.14, 257.5% above it.

71.5%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
70 daysmedian time to reach a target
+257.5%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of LITE18+4.1%+19.1%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of LITE13−3.6%+2.8%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on LITE through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How LITE moves after earnings

LITE beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 11, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 9.6% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 7 of the 12 reports. In 5 of the 12 beats the stock still fell. The next report is expected on Nov 5, 2026.

12/12earnings beats
±9.6%average move per report
Nov 5, 2026next report (expected)
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Aug 11, 2026$3.23 vs $2.97+1.9%+14.6%
May 5, 2026$2.37 vs $2.27−0.2%−3.3%
Feb 3, 2026$1.67 vs $1.41+2.1%+9.9%
Nov 4, 2025$1.10 vs $1.03+1.4%+16.6%
Aug 12, 2025$0.88 vs $0.81+2.2%+4.5%
May 6, 2025$0.57 vs $0.50+1.7%+4.9%
Feb 6, 2025$0.42 vs $0.34+3.3%−3.7%
Nov 7, 2024$0.18 vs $0.12+3.6%+16.5%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where LITE’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2026 (the year to Jun 27, 2026), 13.7% of LITE’s $5.9 billion revenue came from China, up from 12.7% in fiscal 2025. By region: Asia Pacific 29.9%; Americas 18.5%; United States 10.7%; Thailand 10.7%.

By business, the largest segment was Systems, with 66.5% of $3.0 billion revenue.

  • Asia Pacific29.9%
  • Americas18.5%
  • United States10.7%
  • Thailand10.7%
  • Hong Kong8.9%
  • Mexico7.6%
  • China4.9%
  • Other Asia Pacific Not Individually Identified3.7%
SegmentRevenueShareGrowth
Systems$2.0 billion66.5%—
Components$1.0 billion33.5%—

From LITE’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2026 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded LITE

As of Oct 20, 2026, 6 members of Congress had disclosed 11 trades in LITE (8 buys and 3 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Jul 17, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Jul 17, 2026Gilbert CisnerosSale$1,001–$15,000
May 22, 2026Josh GottheimerBuy$1,001–$15,000
Apr 14, 2026Gilbert CisnerosBuy$1,001–$15,000
Mar 27, 2026Alan ArmstrongBuy$1,001–$15,000
May 23, 2022Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
May 5, 2022Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Nov 26, 2021Thomas CarperBuy$1,001–$15,000
Jun 21, 2021Susie LeeSale$1,001–$15,000
Nov 4, 2020Susie LeeBuy$1,001–$15,000
Oct 19, 2020Susie LeeBuy$1,001–$15,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades

Are LITE insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, LITE insiders made no open‑market purchases and 175 sales, according to SEC Form 4 filings.

Q1 ’25
Q2 ’25
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
Q4 ’26

The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of LITE is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 8.36% of LITE’s float was sold short: 7.4 million shares, or 1.5 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 11.48%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so LITE is more heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 202610.59%
  • May 29, 202611.48%
  • Jun 30, 202610.84%
  • Jul 31, 20269.60%
  • Aug 31, 20268.00%
  • Sep 30, 20268.36%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own LITE?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,408 institutions reported holding LITE in 13F filings, up 244 from the quarter before and up from 525 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 111.6% of LITE’s shares. In the quarter 911 institutions added to their positions and 331 cut them.

1,40813F holders
382new positions
147positions closed
111.6%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is LITE diluting shareholders?

LITE’s diluted share count rose 0.5% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2026 and rose 7.2% in fiscal 2026 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

Stock‑based compensation was $170.2 million in fiscal 2026, 5.6% of revenue. LITE spent $102.0 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 0.15% of its market value; stock pay equaled 166.9% of the buybacks.

+7.2%share count, 1 year
+0.5%share count, 5 years
5.6%stock pay as % of revenue
0.15%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from LITE’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

LITE financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, LITE’s Altman Z‑score was 13.43, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 5 out of 9; 80% of scored stocks reach 5 or more.

13.43Altman Z‑score: safe zone
5/9Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What LITE talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Aug 11, 2026), LITE’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 9 times, against 3 on the call before (May 5, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was china (4). Tariffs and recession did not come up.

MentionsAug ’26May ’26Feb ’26Nov ’25
AI9379
AI agents0000
Data centers3458
Tariffs0000
China4110
Recession0000
  • AI
    Aug ’26
    9
    May ’26
    3
    Feb ’26
    7
    Nov ’25
    9
  • AI agents
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0
  • Data centers
    Aug ’26
    3
    May ’26
    4
    Feb ’26
    5
    Nov ’25
    8
  • Tariffs
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0
  • China
    Aug ’26
    4
    May ’26
    1
    Feb ’26
    1
    Nov ’25
    0
  • Recession
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold LITE?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 59 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held LITE. Its largest weight is in CHAT (Tidal Trust II - Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF), at 3.33% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of LITE
CHATTidal Trust II - Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF3.33%
VOTVanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund2.06%
IWPiShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF1.92%
VOVanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares0.86%
SPMOInvesco S&P 500 Momentum ETF0.86%
MTUMiShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF0.70%
FBCGFidelity Blue Chip Growth ETF0.58%
IWRiShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF0.48%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

How much is LITE’s CEO paid?

Michael Hurlston, LITE’s President and Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $15.4 million for fiscal 2026, down 44.4% from $27.7 million for fiscal 2025, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Oct 6, 2026. 80% of it came as stock and option awards, valued when they were granted rather than when they pay out. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so LITE’s CEO earned less than most.

Pay componentAmountShare of total
Salary$900,0005.8%
Stock and option awards$12.3 million79.9%
Incentive plan (cash)$2.2 million14.2%
Other$21,4440.1%
Other top executivesRoleTotal pay, 2026
Wajid AliExecutive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer$8.9 million
Wupen YuenPresident, Global Business Units$8.9 million
Vincent RetortExecutive Vice President, Global Reliability & Quality$7.5 million
Jae KimSenior Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary$4.9 million

Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500

The right benchmark for LITE

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For LITE that is QQQ (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other technology stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
NVDANVIDIA Corporation+1,004%51.1%
AAPLApple Inc.+141.1%27.8%
MSFTMicrosoft Corporation+89.6%26.5%
AVGOBroadcom Inc.+688.5%44.0%
MUMicron Technology, Inc.+1,437%51.9%
AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.+494.5%56.7%
INTCIntel Corporation+145.0%51.2%
PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.+678.1%64.4%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

See what LITE does to your own portfolio

  1. Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
  2. Exent replays your whole portfolio, LITE included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
  3. It finds holdings that move together with LITE and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
  4. Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

Yes. LITE returned +2,225% (+37.0% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is also in the Nasdaq-100.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, LITE (Lumentum Holdings Inc.) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.

LITE fell −28.8% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

LITE fell −36.3% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, LITE’s Sharpe ratio was 0.99 and its Sortino ratio 2.47, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.

LITE’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 59.3%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.52.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with LITE over the last 60 months were ADP (−0.12), LMT (−0.07), MRSH (−0.04). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.35 and with gold (GLD) 0.18.

LITE beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 11, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. The stock moved 9.6% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Nov 5, 2026.

Michael Hurlston, LITE’s President and Chief Executive Officer, received $15.4 million in total pay for fiscal 2026, including a $900,000 salary and $12.3 million in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Oct 6, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.

In fiscal 2026 (the year to Jun 27, 2026), 13.7% of LITE’s $5.9 billion revenue came from China, about $801.6 million, up from 12.7% in fiscal 2025. Regions are as LITE reports them in its annual filings.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 6 members of Congress had disclosed 11 trades in LITE (8 buys and 3 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 8.36% of LITE’s float was sold short (7.4 million shares, 1.5 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 11.48%.

Yes. LITE’s diluted share count rose 0.5% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2026 and rose 7.2% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 5.6% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $102.0 million.

What would LITE do to your portfolio?

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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.