How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
StocksInsight
MDLZ Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Mondelez International, Inc., consumer defensive (market value $80.8 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
What changed since Oct 12
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
73% Buy ratings (was 71%)
Key takeaways
- MDLZ returned +11.9% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +89.1% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.04 against 0.69 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −40.3% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
- Five‑year volatility was 19.5% and beta 0.38.
- 23 analysts rated it in the past year; 73% of their latest calls were Buy.
In this article
- Did MDLZ beat the S&P 500?
- MDLZ returns by year vs the S&P 500
- MDLZ risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How MDLZ behaved in past crashes
- What moves with MDLZ, and what doesn’t
- What Wall Street analysts say about MDLZ
- Latest MDLZ upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- The right benchmark for MDLZ
- Other consumer defensive stocks
- Data and methodology
Did MDLZ beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) returned +11.9% including dividends, versus +89.1% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 77.2 percentage points, or +2.3% a year against +13.6%.
| Period | MDLZ | S&P 500 | MDLZ per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −5.8% | +15.1% | −5.8% | +15.1% | Lagged |
| 3 years | −10.4% | +84.1% | −3.6% | +22.6% | Lagged |
| 5 years | +11.9% | +89.1% | +2.3% | +13.6% | Lagged |
| 10 years | +64.8% | +310.7% | +5.1% | +15.2% | Lagged |
- 1 year
- MDLZ
- −5.8%
- S&P 500
- +15.1%
- MDLZ per year
- −5.8%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.1%
- Result
- Lagged
- 3 years
- MDLZ
- −10.4%
- S&P 500
- +84.1%
- MDLZ per year
- −3.6%
- S&P 500 per year
- +22.6%
- Result
- Lagged
- 5 years
- MDLZ
- +11.9%
- S&P 500
- +89.1%
- MDLZ per year
- +2.3%
- S&P 500 per year
- +13.6%
- Result
- Lagged
- 10 years
- MDLZ
- +64.8%
- S&P 500
- +310.7%
- MDLZ per year
- +5.1%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.2%
- Result
- Lagged
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
MDLZ returns by year vs the S&P 500
MDLZ beat the S&P 500 in 3 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | MDLZ | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | +8.3% | +12.1% | −3.8% |
| 2025 | −7.0% | +17.7% | −24.7% |
| 2024 | −15.3% | +24.9% | −40.2% |
| 2023 | +11.2% | +26.2% | −15.0% |
| 2022 | +2.9% | −18.2% | +21.1% |
| 2021 | +15.9% | +28.7% | −12.8% |
| 2020 | +8.6% | +18.3% | −9.7% |
| 2019 | +40.4% | +31.2% | +9.2% |
| 2018 | −4.3% | −4.6% | +0.3% |
| 2017 | −1.6% | +21.7% | −23.3% |
MDLZ risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, MDLZ had a Sharpe ratio of 0.04 against 0.69 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 19.1% and its beta 0.38: it tended to move about 0.4× as much as the market.
| Metric | MDLZ | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +2.3% | +13.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 19.1% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.04 | 0.69 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.06 | 1.10 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −24.4% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.38 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
How MDLZ behaved in past crashes
MDLZ’s deepest fall in the crises below was −40.3% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | MDLZ | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −40.3% | −56.5% | −$40,340 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −12.3% | −20.2% | −$12,330 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −29.3% | −34.1% | −$29,290 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −19.8% | −25.4% | −$19,790 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −6.2% | −19.0% | −$6,160 |
| Window | MDLZ max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −25.9% |
| Last 3 years | −29.0% |
| Last 5 years | −29.1% |
| Last 10 years | −34.3% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with MDLZ, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, MDLZ’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.31, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.12, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.34 and with gold (GLD) 0.33.
Adding a 5% MDLZ position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.2%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOOD | −0.27 | KO | 0.74 |
| TSLA | −0.20 | MCD | 0.65 |
| NET | −0.19 | PEP | 0.59 |
| APP | −0.16 | PG | 0.58 |
| PLTR | −0.15 | PM | 0.57 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
What Wall Street analysts say about MDLZ
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 23 analysts published 294 ratings on MDLZ. Their latest calls were 73% Buy, 27% Hold and 0% Sell. 0 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $66.46 (range $55.00–$75.00), +3.9% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on MDLZ are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
Latest MDLZ upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
No named analyst changed a rating or price target on MDLZ in the 5 weeks to Sep 21, 2026 (calls are shown 30 days after publication). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
The right benchmark for MDLZ
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For MDLZ that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other consumer defensive stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | Walmart Inc. | +137.5% | 21.7% |
| COST | Costco Wholesale Corporation | +113.4% | 23.0% |
| KO | The Coca-Cola Company | +87.5% | 16.0% |
| PG | The Procter & Gamble Company | +17.3% | 17.7% |
| PM | Philip Morris International Inc. | +147.0% | 22.6% |
| PEP | PepsiCo, Inc. | −3.0% | 18.3% |
| MO | Altria Group, Inc. | +110.6% | 20.7% |
| MNST | Monster Beverage Corporation | +87.4% | 24.5% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
See what MDLZ does to your own portfolio
- Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
- Exent replays your whole portfolio, MDLZ included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
- It finds holdings that move together with MDLZ and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
- Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
No. MDLZ returned +64.8% (+5.1% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +310.7% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
MDLZ fell −40.3% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
MDLZ fell −29.3% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
MDLZ fell −19.8% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, MDLZ’s Sharpe ratio was 0.04 and its Sortino ratio 0.06, versus 0.69 and 1.10 for the S&P 500.
MDLZ’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 19.5%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.38.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with MDLZ over the last 60 months were HOOD (−0.27), TSLA (−0.20), NET (−0.19). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.34 and with gold (GLD) 0.33.
What would MDLZ do to your portfolio?
Exent replays your whole portfolio through the same crashes, finds holdings that move together and compares you with a risk‑matched benchmark. Upload a screenshot; results in about a minute.
Check my portfolioLimited offer$1.95 for unlimited checks· unlimited checks
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.