How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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PEP Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
PepsiCo, Inc., consumer defensive (market value $192.7 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
Key takeaways
- PEP returned −3.0% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +89.1% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was −0.15 against 0.69 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −42.4% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
- Five‑year volatility was 18.3% and beta 0.36.
- 18 analysts rated it in the past year; 39% of their latest calls were Buy.
In this article
- Did PEP beat the S&P 500?
- PEP returns by year vs the S&P 500
- PEP risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How PEP behaved in past crashes
- What moves with PEP, and what doesn’t
- What Wall Street analysts say about PEP
- The right benchmark for PEP
- Other consumer defensive stocks
- Data and methodology
Did PEP beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) returned −3.0% including dividends, versus +89.1% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 92.1 percentage points, or −0.6% a year against +13.6%.
| Period | PEP | S&P 500 | PEP per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −8.1% | +15.1% | −8.1% | +15.1% | Lagged |
| 3 years | −18.4% | +84.1% | −6.6% | +22.6% | Lagged |
| 5 years | −3.0% | +89.1% | −0.6% | +13.6% | Lagged |
| 10 years | +55.5% | +310.7% | +4.5% | +15.2% | Lagged |
- 1 year
- PEP
- −8.1%
- S&P 500
- +15.1%
- PEP per year
- −8.1%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.1%
- Result
- Lagged
- 3 years
- PEP
- −18.4%
- S&P 500
- +84.1%
- PEP per year
- −6.6%
- S&P 500 per year
- +22.6%
- Result
- Lagged
- 5 years
- PEP
- −3.0%
- S&P 500
- +89.1%
- PEP per year
- −0.6%
- S&P 500 per year
- +13.6%
- Result
- Lagged
- 10 years
- PEP
- +55.5%
- S&P 500
- +310.7%
- PEP per year
- +4.5%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.2%
- Result
- Lagged
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
PEP returns by year vs the S&P 500
PEP beat the S&P 500 in 1 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | PEP | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | −10.9% | +12.1% | −23.0% |
| 2025 | −1.8% | +17.7% | −19.5% |
| 2024 | −7.6% | +24.9% | −32.5% |
| 2023 | −3.3% | +26.2% | −29.5% |
| 2022 | +6.8% | −18.2% | +25.0% |
| 2021 | +20.5% | +28.7% | −8.2% |
| 2020 | +11.7% | +18.3% | −6.6% |
| 2019 | +27.4% | +31.2% | −3.8% |
| 2018 | −4.8% | −4.6% | −0.2% |
| 2017 | +17.8% | +21.7% | −3.9% |
PEP risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, PEP had a Sharpe ratio of −0.15 against 0.69 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 16.7% and its beta 0.36: it tended to move about 0.4× as much as the market.
| Metric | PEP | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −0.6% | +13.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 16.7% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.15 | 0.69 |
| Sortino ratio | −0.21 | 1.10 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −26.7% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.36 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
How PEP behaved in past crashes
PEP’s deepest fall in the crises below was −42.4% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | PEP | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −42.4% | −56.5% | −$42,430 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −13.1% | −20.2% | −$13,050 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −28.7% | −34.1% | −$28,740 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −12.5% | −25.4% | −$12,470 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −10.3% | −19.0% | −$10,310 |
| Window | PEP max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −14.7% |
| Last 3 years | −29.2% |
| Last 5 years | −30.3% |
| Last 10 years | −34.7% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with PEP, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, PEP’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.34, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.10, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.25 and with gold (GLD) 0.33.
Adding a 5% PEP position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.2%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD | −0.34 | MCD | 0.67 |
| PANW | −0.29 | KO | 0.63 |
| HOOD | −0.22 | PG | 0.56 |
| FTNT | −0.17 | MSI | 0.54 |
| MRVL | −0.17 | DUK | 0.53 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
What Wall Street analysts say about PEP
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 18 analysts published 231 ratings on PEP. Their latest calls were 39% Buy, 61% Hold and 0% Sell. 1 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $171.38 (range $130.00–$191.00), +32.6% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. The live view, including the median target of only the top‑rated analysts, is in Exent Stocks Radar.
The right benchmark for PEP
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For PEP that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other consumer defensive stocks
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
See what PEP does to your own portfolio
- Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
- Exent replays your whole portfolio, PEP included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
- It finds holdings that move together with PEP and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
- Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
No. PEP returned +55.5% (+4.5% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +310.7% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
PEP fell −42.4% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
PEP fell −28.7% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
PEP fell −12.5% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, PEP’s Sharpe ratio was −0.15 and its Sortino ratio −0.21, versus 0.69 and 1.10 for the S&P 500.
PEP’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 18.3%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.36.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with PEP over the last 60 months were CRWD (−0.34), PANW (−0.29), HOOD (−0.22). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.25 and with gold (GLD) 0.33.
What would PEP do to your portfolio?
Exent replays your whole portfolio through the same crashes, finds holdings that move together and compares you with a risk‑matched benchmark. Upload a screenshot; results in about a minute.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.