How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
Ross Stores, Inc., consumer cyclical (market value $76.6 billion), a member of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) returned +125.6% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 35.6 percentage points, or +17.7% a year against +13.7%.
| Period | ROST | S&P 500 | ROST per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +53.8% | +15.7% | +53.8% | +15.7% | Beat |
| 3 years | +112.0% | +85.0% | +28.5% | +22.8% | Beat |
| 5 years | +125.6% | +90.0% | +17.7% | +13.7% | Beat |
| 10 years | +298.6% | +312.9% | +14.8% | +15.2% | Lagged |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
ROST is in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the lists show every member’s return against the index.
ROST beat the S&P 500 in 5 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | ROST | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | +29.8% | +12.7% | +17.1% |
| 2025 | +20.4% | +17.7% | +2.7% |
| 2024 | +10.4% | +24.9% | −14.5% |
| 2023 | +20.6% | +26.2% | −5.6% |
| 2022 | +2.9% | −18.2% | +21.1% |
| 2021 | −6.0% | +28.7% | −34.7% |
| 2020 | +5.8% | +18.3% | −12.5% |
| 2019 | +41.3% | +31.2% | +10.1% |
| 2018 | +4.8% | −4.6% | +9.4% |
| 2017 | +23.5% | +21.7% | +1.8% |
Over 5 years, ROST had a Sharpe ratio of 0.60 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 27.9% and its beta 0.83: it tended to move about 0.8× as much as the market.
| Metric | ROST | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +17.7% | +13.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 27.9% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.96 | 1.08 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −38.1% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.83 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
ROST’s deepest fall in the crises below was −51.6% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), against −34.1% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | ROST | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −46.5% | −56.5% | −$46,470 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −26.2% | −20.2% | −$26,160 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −51.6% | −34.1% | −$51,560 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −37.9% | −25.4% | −$37,940 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −12.1% | −19.0% | −$12,130 |
| Window | ROST max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −11.8% |
| Last 3 years | −21.1% |
| Last 5 years | −44.1% |
| Last 10 years | −51.6% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, ROST’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.46, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.32, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.23 and with gold (GLD) 0.08.
Adding a 5% ROST position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.6%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRNA | −0.07 | TJX | 0.70 |
| ABBV | −0.05 | WMT | 0.57 |
| VRTX | −0.01 | PLD | 0.56 |
| PGR | −0.01 | MAR | 0.56 |
| PANW | 0.00 | EQIX | 0.55 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 20 analysts published 284 ratings on ROST. Their latest calls were 72% Buy, 28% Hold and 0% Sell. 3 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $229.81 (range $148.00–$250.00), −1.9% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9★ | 57.0% | ||
| 4.6★ | 57.3% | ||
| Paul Lejuez | Citi | 4.5★ | 63.7% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on ROST are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 | Target raised Buy | Paul Lejuez |
| Aug 21 | Target raised Buy | Mark Altschwager |
| Aug 21 | Target raised Buy | Michael Binetti |
| Aug 21 | Target raised Buy | Krisztina Katai |
| Aug 21 | Target raised Hold | Ike Boruchow |
| Aug 21 | Target raised Buy | Matthew Boss |
| Aug 21 | Target raised Hold | Alexandra Straton |
| Aug 21 | Target raised Hold | Aneesha Sherman |
| Aug 21 | Target raised Hold | Jay Sole |
| Aug 21 | Target raised Buy | Joseph Civello |
| Aug 20 | Target raised Buy | Lorraine Hutchinson |
| Aug 20 | Target raised Buy | Adrienne Yih |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on ROST in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Of the 451 analyst price targets on ROST set from 2019 until a year ago, 71.4% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 2.8 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 92 days. The median target sat 14.0% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said ROST would be by now: a year ago, 12 analysts had a price target on ROST, and the median of their latest targets was $185.50. On Oct 20, 2026 ROST closed at $237.24, 27.9% above it.
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of ROST | 13 | +2.7% | +3.9% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of ROST | 12 | −2.3% | −4.4% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on ROST through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
ROST beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 20, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 8 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 4.5% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 10 of the 12 reports. In 2 of the 12 beats the stock still fell. The next report is expected on Nov 19, 2026.
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | $2.66 vs $1.95 | +1.7% | +1.9% |
| May 21, 2026 | $2.02 vs $1.73 | +6.5% | +7.8% |
| Mar 3, 2026 | $2.00 vs $1.90 | +3.4% | +5.5% |
| Nov 20, 2025 | $1.58 vs $1.42 | +3.4% | +8.4% |
| Aug 21, 2025 | $1.56 vs $1.53 | −0.3% | +0.6% |
| May 22, 2025 | $1.47 vs $1.44 | +0.5% | −10.1% |
| Mar 4, 2025 | $1.79 vs $1.66 | −0.5% | +1.3% |
| Nov 21, 2024 | $1.48 vs $1.41 | −1.5% | +4.9% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
In fiscal 2024, ROST’s largest segment was Home Accents and Bed and Bath, with 26.0% of $21.1 billion revenue (+3.7% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Accents and Bed and Bath | $5.5 billion | 26.0% | +3.7% |
| Ladies | $4.6 billion | 22.0% | −0.8% |
| Mens | $3.4 billion | 16.0% | +10.6% |
| Accessories, Lingerie, Fine Jewelry, And Cosmetics | $3.2 billion | 15.0% | +3.7% |
| Shoes | $2.5 billion | 12.0% | −4.3% |
| Childrens | $1.9 billion | 9.0% | +16.7% |
From ROST’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2024 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 16 members of Congress had disclosed 52 trades in ROST (21 buys and 31 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Apr 13, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Valerie Hoyle | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Aug 26, 2025 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Dan Newhouse | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 24, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 12, 2025 | Jefferson Shreve | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Apr 17, 2025 | Jefferson Shreve | Buy | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Mar 13, 2025 | Jefferson Shreve | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
One trade in ROST disclosed in the last 30 days is in Exent Radar.
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, ROST insiders made no open‑market purchases and 11 sales worth $23.0 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Apr 1, 2024.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | Fleming Karen | President, Cmo Dd'S Discounts | $5,230 |
| Nov 16, 2012 | Bush Michael J | Director | $590 |
| Oct 26, 2012 | Bush Michael J | Director | $546 |
| Oct 16, 2012 | Bush Michael J | Director | $750 |
| Aug 16, 2012 | Bush Michael J | Director | $806 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.26% of ROST’s float was sold short: 10.2 million shares, or 5.0 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 2.20%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so ROST is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,479 institutions reported holding ROST in 13F filings, up 71 from the quarter before and up from 1,103 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 94.9% of ROST’s shares. In the quarter 772 institutions added to their positions and 444 cut them.
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
ROST’s diluted share count fell 8.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 2.4% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $175.4 million in fiscal 2025, 0.8% of revenue. ROST spent $1.1 billion buying back shares, a buyback yield of 1.54% of its market value; stock pay equaled 15.5% of the buybacks.
Weighted‑average diluted shares from ROST’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, ROST’s Altman Z‑score was 7.90, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 9 out of 9; 3% of scored stocks reach 9 or more.
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
On its latest earnings call (Aug 20, 2026), ROST’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 6 times, against 0 on the call before (May 21, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was tariffs (7).
| Mentions | Aug ’26 | May ’26 | Mar ’26 | Nov ’25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| AI agents | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Data centers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariffs | 7 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| China | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Recession | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 66 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held ROST. Its largest weight is in RDVY (First Trust Rising Dividend Achievers ETF), at 2.17% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of ROST |
|---|---|---|
| RDVY | First Trust Rising Dividend Achievers ETF | 2.17% |
| RDVI | FT Vest Rising Dividend Achievers Target Income ETF | 2.17% |
| XLY | State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF | 2.03% |
| VOT | Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund | 1.77% |
| QUAL | iShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF | 1.45% |
| JEPI | JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF | 1.29% |
| VO | Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.74% |
| SPHQ | Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF | 0.74% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For ROST that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | +51.7% | 36.3% |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | +37.3% | 58.6% |
| HD | The Home Depot, Inc. | −3.1% | 24.6% |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | +6.1% | 17.2% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | +114.9% | 22.2% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | +74.8% | 33.1% |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corporation | −4.7% | 31.3% |
| LOW | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | −0.5% | 26.1% |
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
No. ROST returned +298.6% (+14.8% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, ROST (Ross Stores, Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is also in the Nasdaq-100.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, ROST (Ross Stores, Inc.) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
ROST fell −46.5% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
ROST fell −51.6% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
ROST fell −37.9% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, ROST’s Sharpe ratio was 0.60 and its Sortino ratio 0.96, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.
ROST’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 29.8%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.83.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with ROST over the last 60 months were MRNA (−0.07), ABBV (−0.05), VRTX (−0.01). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.23 and with gold (GLD) 0.08.
ROST beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 20, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 8 of 12. The stock moved 4.5% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Nov 19, 2026.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 16 members of Congress had disclosed 52 trades in ROST (21 buys and 31 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.26% of ROST’s float was sold short (10.2 million shares, 5.0 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 2.20%.
No. ROST’s diluted share count fell 8.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 2.4% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.8% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $1.1 billion.
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