StocksInsight

ROST Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

Ross Stores, Inc., consumer cyclical (market value $76.6 billion), a member of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 12

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

72% Buy ratings (was 74%)

Key takeaways

  • ROST returned +125.6% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +90.0% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.60 against 0.67 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −51.6% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020) (S&P 500: −34.1%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 29.8% and beta 0.83.
  • 20 analysts rated it in the past year; 72% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • ROST beat earnings estimates in 12 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 4.5% on average, up or down, around each report.

Did ROST beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST) returned +125.6% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 35.6 percentage points, or +17.7% a year against +13.7%.

PeriodROSTS&P 500ROST per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year+53.8%+15.7%+53.8%+15.7%Beat
3 years+112.0%+85.0%+28.5%+22.8%Beat
5 years+125.6%+90.0%+17.7%+13.7%Beat
10 years+298.6%+312.9%+14.8%+15.2%Lagged
  • 1 year
    ROST
    +53.8%
    S&P 500
    +15.7%
    ROST per year
    +53.8%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.7%
    Result
    Beat
  • 3 years
    ROST
    +112.0%
    S&P 500
    +85.0%
    ROST per year
    +28.5%
    S&P 500 per year
    +22.8%
    Result
    Beat
  • 5 years
    ROST
    +125.6%
    S&P 500
    +90.0%
    ROST per year
    +17.7%
    S&P 500 per year
    +13.7%
    Result
    Beat
  • 10 years
    ROST
    +298.6%
    S&P 500
    +312.9%
    ROST per year
    +14.8%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.2%
    Result
    Lagged

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

ROST is in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the lists show every member’s return against the index.

ROST returns by year vs the S&P 500

ROST beat the S&P 500 in 5 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

YearROSTS&P 500Difference
2026 (to Sep 30, 2026)+29.8%+12.7%+17.1%
2025+20.4%+17.7%+2.7%
2024+10.4%+24.9%−14.5%
2023+20.6%+26.2%−5.6%
2022+2.9%−18.2%+21.1%
2021−6.0%+28.7%−34.7%
2020+5.8%+18.3%−12.5%
2019+41.3%+31.2%+10.1%
2018+4.8%−4.6%+9.4%
2017+23.5%+21.7%+1.8%

ROST risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, ROST had a Sharpe ratio of 0.60 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 27.9% and its beta 0.83: it tended to move about 0.8× as much as the market.

MetricROSTS&P 500
Annual return+17.7%+13.7%
Volatility (annualized)27.9%15.7%
Sharpe ratio0.600.67
Sortino ratio0.961.08
Max drawdown (month-end)−38.1%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.831.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How ROST behaved in past crashes

ROST’s deepest fall in the crises below was −51.6% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), against −34.1% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisROSTS&P 500Loss on $100,000
Global financial crisis (2007–09)−46.5%−56.5%−$46,470
2018 trade-war selloff−26.2%−20.2%−$26,160
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−51.6%−34.1%−$51,560
2022 inflation bear market−37.9%−25.4%−$37,940
2025 tariff selloff−12.1%−19.0%−$12,130
WindowROST max drawdown
Last 1 year−11.8%
Last 3 years−21.1%
Last 5 years−44.1%
Last 10 years−51.6%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with ROST, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, ROST’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.46, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.32, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.23 and with gold (GLD) 0.08.

Adding a 5% ROST position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.6%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
MRNA−0.07TJX0.70
ABBV−0.05WMT0.57
VRTX−0.01PLD0.56
PGR−0.01MAR0.56
PANW0.00EQIX0.55

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

What Wall Street analysts say about ROST

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 20 analysts published 284 ratings on ROST. Their latest calls were 72% Buy, 28% Hold and 0% Sell. 3 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $229.81 (range $148.00–$250.00), −1.9% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
4.9★57.0%
4.6★57.3%
Paul LejuezCiti4.5★63.7%

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on ROST are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

Latest ROST upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

DateRating and targetAnalyst
Aug 21Target raised
Buy
Target $290, was $270
Paul Lejuez
Citi
Aug 21Target raised
Buy
Target $270, was $200
Mark Altschwager
Robert W. Baird
Aug 21Target raised
Buy
Target $290, was $276
Michael Binetti
Evercore ISI
Aug 21Target raised
Buy
Target $294, was $257
Krisztina Katai
Deutsche Bank
Aug 21Target raised
Hold
Target $248, was $245
Ike Boruchow
Wells Fargo
Aug 21Target raised
Buy
Target $272, was $262
Matthew Boss
J.P. Morgan
Aug 21Target raised
Hold
Target $234, was $231
Alexandra Straton
Morgan Stanley
Aug 21Target raised
Hold
Target $240, was $230
Aneesha Sherman
Bernstein
Aug 21Target raised
Hold
Target $239, was $232
Jay Sole
UBS
Aug 21Target raised
Buy
Target $310, was $270
Joseph Civello
Truist Financial
Aug 20Target raised
Buy
Target $265, was $255
Lorraine Hutchinson
Bank of America Securities
Aug 20Target raised
Buy
Target $298, was $260
Adrienne Yih
Barclays

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on ROST in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get ROST right?

Of the 451 analyst price targets on ROST set from 2019 until a year ago, 71.4% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 2.8 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 92 days. The median target sat 14.0% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said ROST would be by now: a year ago, 12 analysts had a price target on ROST, and the median of their latest targets was $185.50. On Oct 20, 2026 ROST closed at $237.24, 27.9% above it.

71.4%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
92 daysmedian time to reach a target
+27.9%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of ROST13+2.7%+3.9%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of ROST12−2.3%−4.4%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on ROST through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How ROST moves after earnings

ROST beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 20, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 8 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 4.5% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 10 of the 12 reports. In 2 of the 12 beats the stock still fell. The next report is expected on Nov 19, 2026.

12/12earnings beats
±4.5%average move per report
Nov 19, 2026next report (expected)
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Aug 20, 2026$2.66 vs $1.95+1.7%+1.9%
May 21, 2026$2.02 vs $1.73+6.5%+7.8%
Mar 3, 2026$2.00 vs $1.90+3.4%+5.5%
Nov 20, 2025$1.58 vs $1.42+3.4%+8.4%
Aug 21, 2025$1.56 vs $1.53−0.3%+0.6%
May 22, 2025$1.47 vs $1.44+0.5%−10.1%
Mar 4, 2025$1.79 vs $1.66−0.5%+1.3%
Nov 21, 2024$1.48 vs $1.41−1.5%+4.9%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where ROST’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2024, ROST’s largest segment was Home Accents and Bed and Bath, with 26.0% of $21.1 billion revenue (+3.7% on the year before).

SegmentRevenueShareGrowth
Home Accents and Bed and Bath$5.5 billion26.0%+3.7%
Ladies$4.6 billion22.0%−0.8%
Mens$3.4 billion16.0%+10.6%
Accessories, Lingerie, Fine Jewelry, And Cosmetics$3.2 billion15.0%+3.7%
Shoes$2.5 billion12.0%−4.3%
Childrens$1.9 billion9.0%+16.7%

From ROST’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2024 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded ROST

As of Oct 20, 2026, 16 members of Congress had disclosed 52 trades in ROST (21 buys and 31 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Apr 13, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Apr 13, 2026Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Jan 29, 2026Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
Sep 23, 2025Valerie HoyleSale$1,001–$15,000
Aug 26, 2025Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Aug 18, 2025Dan NewhouseBuy$1,001–$15,000
Jun 24, 2025Lisa McClainSale$1,001–$15,000
Jun 17, 2025Lisa McClainBuy$1,001–$15,000
May 12, 2025Jefferson ShreveSale$15,001–$50,000
Apr 17, 2025Jefferson ShreveBuy$15,001–$50,000
Mar 13, 2025Jefferson ShreveSale$15,001–$50,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades

One trade in ROST disclosed in the last 30 days is in Exent Radar.

Are ROST insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, ROST insiders made no open‑market purchases and 11 sales worth $23.0 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Apr 1, 2024.

Q4 ’24
Q1 ’25
Q2 ’25
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
DateInsiderRoleValue
Apr 1, 2024Fleming KarenPresident, Cmo Dd'S Discounts$5,230
Nov 16, 2012Bush Michael JDirector$590
Oct 26, 2012Bush Michael JDirector$546
Oct 16, 2012Bush Michael JDirector$750
Aug 16, 2012Bush Michael JDirector$806

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of ROST is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.26% of ROST’s float was sold short: 10.2 million shares, or 5.0 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 2.20%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so ROST is less heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 20262.25%
  • May 29, 20262.69%
  • Jun 30, 20263.45%
  • Jul 31, 20263.12%
  • Aug 31, 20262.73%
  • Sep 30, 20263.26%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own ROST?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,479 institutions reported holding ROST in 13F filings, up 71 from the quarter before and up from 1,103 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 94.9% of ROST’s shares. In the quarter 772 institutions added to their positions and 444 cut them.

1,47913F holders
179new positions
116positions closed
94.9%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is ROST diluting shareholders?

ROST’s diluted share count fell 8.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 2.4% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

Stock‑based compensation was $175.4 million in fiscal 2025, 0.8% of revenue. ROST spent $1.1 billion buying back shares, a buyback yield of 1.54% of its market value; stock pay equaled 15.5% of the buybacks.

−2.4%share count, 1 year
−8.9%share count, 5 years
0.8%stock pay as % of revenue
1.54%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from ROST’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

ROST financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, ROST’s Altman Z‑score was 7.90, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 9 out of 9; 3% of scored stocks reach 9 or more.

7.90Altman Z‑score: safe zone
9/9Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What ROST talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Aug 20, 2026), ROST’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 6 times, against 0 on the call before (May 21, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was tariffs (7).

MentionsAug ’26May ’26Mar ’26Nov ’25
AI6000
AI agents1000
Data centers0000
Tariffs73926
China0000
Recession0000
  • AI
    Aug ’26
    6
    May ’26
    0
    Mar ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0
  • AI agents
    Aug ’26
    1
    May ’26
    0
    Mar ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0
  • Data centers
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Mar ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0
  • Tariffs
    Aug ’26
    7
    May ’26
    3
    Mar ’26
    9
    Nov ’25
    26
  • China
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Mar ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0
  • Recession
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Mar ’26
    0
    Nov ’25
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold ROST?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 66 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held ROST. Its largest weight is in RDVY (First Trust Rising Dividend Achievers ETF), at 2.17% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of ROST
RDVYFirst Trust Rising Dividend Achievers ETF2.17%
RDVIFT Vest Rising Dividend Achievers Target Income ETF2.17%
XLYState Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF2.03%
VOTVanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund1.77%
QUALiShares MSCI USA Quality Factor ETF1.45%
JEPIJPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF1.29%
VOVanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares0.74%
SPHQInvesco S&P 500 Quality ETF0.74%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

The right benchmark for ROST

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For ROST that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other consumer cyclical stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.+51.7%36.3%
TSLATesla, Inc.+37.3%58.6%
HDThe Home Depot, Inc.−3.1%24.6%
MCDMcDonald's Corporation+6.1%17.2%
TJXThe TJX Companies, Inc.+114.9%22.2%
BKNGBooking Holdings Inc.+74.8%33.1%
SBUXStarbucks Corporation−4.7%31.3%
LOWLowe's Companies, Inc.−0.5%26.1%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

See what ROST does to your own portfolio

  1. Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
  2. Exent replays your whole portfolio, ROST included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
  3. It finds holdings that move together with ROST and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
  4. Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

No. ROST returned +298.6% (+14.8% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, ROST (Ross Stores, Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is also in the Nasdaq-100.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, ROST (Ross Stores, Inc.) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.

ROST fell −46.5% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

ROST fell −51.6% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

ROST fell −37.9% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, ROST’s Sharpe ratio was 0.60 and its Sortino ratio 0.96, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.

ROST’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 29.8%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.83.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with ROST over the last 60 months were MRNA (−0.07), ABBV (−0.05), VRTX (−0.01). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.23 and with gold (GLD) 0.08.

ROST beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 20, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 8 of 12. The stock moved 4.5% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Nov 19, 2026.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 16 members of Congress had disclosed 52 trades in ROST (21 buys and 31 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.26% of ROST’s float was sold short (10.2 million shares, 5.0 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 2.20%.

No. ROST’s diluted share count fell 8.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 2.4% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.8% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $1.1 billion.

What would ROST do to your portfolio?

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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.