What 13,834 analyst initiations on US stocks were followed by: the move around the call, the next one and three months against the S&P 500, and how that compares with upgrades and downgrades.
Which stocks do Wall Street’s best‑ranked analysts agree on? See them in Exent Gems →
On average, a small rise. Across 13,834 initiations from January 2019 to September 15, 2026, the stock moved 0.60% from the close before the call to the close after it, and rose in 55.1% of cases. Upgrades and downgrades in the same data moved stocks four to five times as much.
An initiation is an analyst’s first rating on a stock. It tells the market what one more analyst thinks, but it is not a change of view, which is why it tends to say less than an upgrade or a downgrade.
| Call type | Calls | Average move around the call | Median move | Stock rose around the call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initiation | 13,834 | +0.60% | +0.36% | 55.1% |
| Upgrade | 11,514 | +2.51% | +1.55% | 70.2% |
| Downgrade | 10,700 | −2.96% | −1.46% | 31.0% |
| Call type | Initiation | Upgrade | Downgrade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calls | 13,834 | 11,514 | 10,700 |
| Average move around the call | +0.60% | +2.51% | −2.96% |
| Median move | +0.36% | +1.55% | −1.46% |
| Stock rose around the call | 55.1% | 70.2% | 31.0% |
For the full upgrade and downgrade numbers, see do analyst upgrades move stocks?
On average slightly, but the typical stock did not. One month after an initiation, the stock was 0.85 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500 index on average, and 1.21 points ahead after three months. Yet only 47.1% of initiated stocks had beaten the index after three months.
When the average is positive and fewer than half beat the benchmark, a small number of large winners is carrying the average. For an investor, the more useful reading is the share: a new initiation was close to a coin toss against the index.
| After the call | Initiation | Upgrade | Downgrade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average vs S&P 500, 1 month | +0.85 pts | +2.79 pts | −2.71 pts |
| Average vs S&P 500, 3 months | +1.21 pts | +3.44 pts | −1.65 pts |
| Share that beat the S&P 500 over 3 months | 47.1% | 51.9% | 40.6% |
Yes, in this period. Initiations on companies worth more than $200 billion were followed by a 5.79‑point average lead over the S&P 500 after three months, and 57.4% beat it. For companies under $10 billion the move on the day was larger, but after three months only 44.4% were ahead.
| Company size | Initiations | Move around the call | vs S&P 500, 3 months | Beat the S&P 500 over 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over $200 billion | 1,174 | +0.62% | +5.79 pts | 57.4% |
| $10–200 billion | 9,283 | +0.47% | +0.45 pts | 46.8% |
| Under $10 billion | 3,377 | +0.94% | +1.72 pts | 44.4% |
| Company size | Over $200 billion | $10–200 billion | Under $10 billion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initiations | 1,174 | 9,283 | 3,377 |
| Move around the call | +0.62% | +0.47% | +0.94% |
| vs S&P 500, 3 months | +5.79 pts | +0.45 pts | +1.72 pts |
| Beat the S&P 500 over 3 months | 57.4% | 46.8% | 44.4% |
Part of the large‑company result may reflect how the biggest companies performed over these years rather than the initiations themselves. Smaller companies usually have fewer analysts, so a new one is more news on the day, but the advantage did not last on average.
The move around the call was steady; what came after depended on the market. The day’s average stayed between 0.5% and 0.9% in every year except 2022, when it was flat. The three‑month result swung from +8.79 points in 2020 to −5.14 points in 2021.
| Year | Initiations | Move around the call | vs S&P 500, 3 months | Beat the S&P 500 over 3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 1,213 | +0.81% | +1.34 pts | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 1,352 | +0.89% | +8.79 pts | 53.9% |
| 2021 | 1,764 | +0.62% | −5.14 pts | 41.8% |
| 2022 | 1,792 | −0.01% | −1.51 pts | 47.6% |
| 2023 | 1,812 | +0.77% | +2.33 pts | 50.4% |
| 2024 | 2,052 | +0.55% | +1.40 pts | 45.9% |
| 2025 | 2,269 | +0.71% | +3.23 pts | 46.3% |
| 2026 (to Sep 15) | 1,580 | +0.55% | +0.16 pts | 42.8% |
In only three of the eight years did half or more of initiated stocks beat the index over three months. Results in a single year say more about that year’s market than about initiations.
Mostly Buy. Of the 661 initiations on US stocks from August 19 to September 22, 2026, 452 (68.4%) started with a Buy, 192 (29.0%) with a Hold and 17 (2.6%) with a Sell. The rating feed runs 30 days behind, so this is the latest window available.
| First rating | Initiations | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Buy | 452 | 68.4% |
| Hold | 192 | 29.0% |
| Sell | 17 | 2.6% |
| Total (Aug 19–Sep 22, 2026) | 661 | 100% |
A Buy initiation is therefore the default, not a strong signal. Firms often choose to cover companies they already view well, and analysts rarely open with a Sell for reasons covered in why analysts rarely say sell.
The average analyst’s record is in the October 2026 analyst accuracy report, and each analyst’s own record is on the analyst rankings. How to judge an analyst explains what to look for.
Across 983,543 ratings, the average Wall Street analyst’s price target was reached 53.1% of the time: close to a coin flip. The spread between analysts is wide, and 14.3% of the 965 analysts with a measurable record reached 70% or more (Exent data, Nov 9, 2026).
Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking. Over the last two years, some of them reached 90% or more of their price targets. Who they are, which stocks they are calling now and how often they have been right is for members.
Slightly, on average. Across 13,834 initiations from 2019 to September 2026, the stock rose 0.60% on average around the call and rose in 55.1% of cases.
Usually. Of 661 initiations on US stocks from August 19 to September 22, 2026, 68.4% started with a Buy rating and 2.6% with a Sell.
No. Upgrades moved stocks 2.51% on average around the call and downgrades minus 2.96%, against 0.60% for initiations in the same 2019 to 2026 data.
Fewer than half did. Three months after an initiation, 47.1% of stocks had beaten the S&P 500, even though the average was 1.21 percentage points ahead because of a few large winners.
It means an analyst publishes a first rating, price target and estimates on a company. Later notes on the same stock are reiterations, upgrades or downgrades.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.