Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
Exent ranks 156 financials analysts among Wall Street’s 1,000 by price‑target hit rate, returns after their calls and number of ratings, from a 7‑year backtest. How the sector’s analysts do, and who ranks below the members‑only top 50.
| Median across the sector’s analysts | Financials | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 53.8% | 52.4% |
| Calls up after 12 months | 72.3% | 64.0% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +16.0% | +13.4% |
| Median days to hit target | 111 days | 91 days |
The top 50 financials analysts are the ones Exent Gems follows in this sector. Who they are and what they are rating now is for members; their records are below.
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 5.0★ | 66.7% | ||
| #2 | 5.0★ | — | ||
| #3 | 5.0★ | 100.0% | ||
| #4 | 5.0★ | — | ||
| #5 | 5.0★ | 52.8% | ||
| #6 | 5.0★ | 0.0% | ||
| #7 | 5.0★ | 45.2% | ||
| #8 | 5.0★ | 44.7% | ||
| #9 | 5.0★ | — | ||
| #10 | 5.0★ | 45.8% |
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate | Newest ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #16 | Philip Kett | Jefferies | 5.0★ | — | After 3 days |
| #17 | Kian Abouhossein | J.P. Morgan | 5.0★ | 49.1% | After 3 days |
| #51 | Benjamin Toms | RBC Capital | 4.9★ | 50.0% | After 3 days |
| #52 | Brian Bedell | Deutsche Bank | 4.9★ | 56.3% | After 3 days |
| #53 | Marta Sanchez Romero | J.P. Morgan | 4.9★ | 0.0% | After 3 days |
| #54 | Delphine Lee | J.P. Morgan | 4.9★ | 0.0% | After 3 days |
| #55 | Graham Ryding | TD Cowen | 4.9★ | — | After 3 days |
| #56 | Benjamin Goy | Deutsche Bank | 4.9★ | — | After 3 days |
| #57 | David Feaster | Raymond James | 4.9★ | 54.6% | After 3 days |
| #58 | Mark DeVries | Deutsche Bank | 4.9★ | 34.0% | After 3 days |
| #59 | Chris Kotowski | Oppenheimer | 4.9★ | 35.7% | After 3 days |
| #60 | Adele Palama | UBS | 4.9★ | — | After 3 days |
| #61 | Ken Shih | DBS | 4.9★ | 84.5% | After 3 days |
| #62 | Douglas Young | Desjardins | 4.9★ | — | After 3 days |
| #63 | Jon Arfstrom | RBC Capital | 4.9★ | 54.1% | After 3 days |
| #64 | Pamela Zuluaga | Morgan Stanley | 4.9★ | — | After 3 days |
| #65 | Aman Rakkar | Barclays | 4.9★ | 100.0% | After 3 days |
| #66 | Gregory Peters | Raymond James | 4.9★ | 45.4% | After 3 days |
| #67 | Matthew Carletti | Citizens JMP | 4.9★ | 36.7% | After 3 days |
| #68 | Randy Binner | Texas Capital Securities | 4.9★ | 35.1% | After 3 days |
| #69 | Marlene Eibensteiner | Deutsche Bank | 4.9★ | — | After 3 days |
| #70 | Catherine Mealor | KBW | 4.9★ | 59.0% | After 3 days |
| #71 | Christopher Mcgratty | KBW | 4.9★ | 64.5% | After 3 days |
| #72 | Nathan Race | Piper Sandler | 4.8★ | 53.9% | After 3 days |
| #73 | David Scharf | Citizens JMP | 4.8★ | 48.1% | After 3 days |
| #74 | Nicolas Payen | Kepler Capital | 4.8★ | 0.0% | After 3 days |
| #75 | Stephen Biggar | Argus Research | 4.8★ | 54.9% | After 3 days |
| #76 | Etienne Ricard | BMO Capital | 4.8★ | 67.4% | After 3 days |
| #77 | Gautam Chhugani | Bernstein | 4.8★ | 40.7% | After 3 days |
| #78 | John Hecht | Jefferies | 4.8★ | 48.4% | After 3 days |
More financials analysts: Ryan Krueger · Jeff Rulis · Stephen Scouten · Mandeep Jagpal · Arren Cyganovich · Glenn Thum · Alex Demetriou · Paul Holden · Kamran Hossain · Joseph Dickerson · Steven Chubak · Scott Siefers · Craig Siegenthaler · Michael Grondahl · Manyi Lu · Michael Christodoulou · Yaron Kinar · Richard Shane · Nasib Ahmed · Robert Noble · Suneet Kamath · Hadley Cohen · Flora Bocahut · Richard Ramsden · David George · Henry Coffey · Hal Goetsch · Derald Goh · Harry Fong · Kenneth Lee · John Campbell · Simon Nellis · Cecilia Romero · James Shuck · Daniel Tamayo · John Barnidge · Steve Moss · Lim Rui Wen · Jaeme Gloyn · Matthew Clark · Matt O'Connor · Brian McKenna · Douglas Harter · Mark Fitzgibbon · Darko Mihelic · Ben Bathurst · Casey Alexander · Sohrab Movahedi · Katherine Lei · Andrew Kligerman · Alex Kramm · Brennan Hawken · Gabriel Dechaine · Giulia Miotto · Farooq Hanif · Ryan Nash · Kevin Heal · Antonio Reale · Owen Lau · Justin Crowley · Chris Brendler · Joshua Shanker · William Katz · Benjamin Budish · Donald Fandetti · Manuel Navas · Dave Rochester · Giuliano Bologna · Shrey Srivastava · Tim Switzer · Gary Ho · Andreas Plaesier · Vivek Juneja · Jonathan Pierce · Ben Gerlinger · Glenn Schorr · Carlos Gomez-Lopez · Stephen Glagola
Every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback is replayed: was the target reached, how fast, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months later. The ranking combines success rate, average return and number of ratings; the sector rank orders the analysts whose main sector is financials. Sector figures are medians, so one star analyst does not carry the group. All sectors and the overall ranking.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
In Exent’s ranking, the top financials analyst reached 66.7% of price targets over a 7-year lookback, against a 53.8% median for the sector. The names and live calls of the top 50 financials analysts are members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar).
Across the 156 financials analysts in Exent’s ranking, the median price-target hit rate was 53.8% over a 7-year lookback, against 52.4% for all analysts, and a median 72.3% of their calls were up 12 months later.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.