AnalystsInsight

Jon Arfstrom (RBC Capital): Analyst Track Record and Price‑Target Accuracy

How often Jon Arfstrom’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 2,833 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.

Reviewed by:David, Senior AnalystPublished Oct 12, 2026Updated Oct 18, 20263 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 12

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; live calls are in Gems.

#342 rank (was #390)+1 new rating (HBAN)

Key takeaways

Jon Arfstrom ranks #331 of 1,000 analysts in Exent’s scoring (4.9★).
54.1% of price targets were reached over 7 years, versus 52.4% for the average analyst.
Median time to reach a target: 106 days; 66.0% of calls were up 12 months later.
Most‑covered stocks: HBAN, PNFP, ASB, WAL.
Free on Exent: Jon Arfstrom’s full record, with ratings 3 days after publication.

In this article

Jon Arfstrom’s track record at a glance
How fast price targets were reached
Stocks Jon Arfstrom covers most
Jon Arfstrom’s latest ratings
How Exent scores analysts

Jon Arfstrom’s track record at a glance

Jon Arfstrom of RBC Capital ranks #331 of the 1,000 analysts Exent scores, with a 4.9★ rating and a focus on financials. Over a 7‑year lookback, 54.1% of Jon’s price targets were reached, 1.7 points above the 52.4% average across all analysts.

Metric	Jon Arfstrom	All analysts
Price‑target hit rate	54.1%	52.4%
Median days to hit target	106 days	91 days
Calls up after 12 months	66.0%	64.0%
Median 12‑month return of calls	+11.9%	+13.4%
Hit rate, last 2 years	64.6%	—
Average worst drop after a call	−17.3%	—
Ratings in the sample	2,833	—
Stocks covered	31	—

The full records of Exent’s top 90 analysts and the top 50 of each sector, and the stocks where several of them agree right now, are members‑only in Exent Gems.

See the top-ranked analysts in Gems

How fast price targets were reached

Time to reach the target	Jon Arfstrom
Under 30 days	14.9%
30–90 days	27.5%
90–180 days	27.4%
Over 180 days	30.2%

Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.

Stocks Jon Arfstrom covers most

Stock	Ratings in the sample
HBAN	20
PNFP	18
ASB	18
WAL	18
FHN	18
CFR	16
BFH	16
VLY	15

In the past year Jon’s ratings were 41% Buy, 59% Hold and 0% Sell.

Jon Arfstrom’s latest ratings

Date	Stock	Action	Rating	Price target
Sep 16, 2026	HBAN	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$20.00
Aug 25, 2026	VLY	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$17.00
Aug 18, 2026	HBAN	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$21.00
Aug 14, 2026	CFR	Reiterated: Hold	Hold	$176.00
Jul 30, 2026	CFR	Rated: Hold	Hold	$176.00
Jul 29, 2026	PB	Reiterated: Hold	Hold	$80.00
Jul 29, 2026	UMBF	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$170.00
Jul 24, 2026	FLG	Reiterated: Hold	Hold	$15.00
Jul 24, 2026	AXP	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$415.00
Jul 23, 2026	VLY	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$17.00
Jul 23, 2026	PNFP	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$117.00
Jul 23, 2026	SLM	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$29.00

Sep 16, 2026
Stock
HBAN
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$20.00
Aug 25, 2026
Stock
VLY
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$17.00
Aug 18, 2026
Stock
HBAN
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$21.00
Aug 14, 2026
Stock
CFR
Action
Reiterated: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$176.00
Jul 30, 2026
Stock
CFR
Action
Rated: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$176.00
Jul 29, 2026
Stock
PB
Action
Reiterated: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$80.00
Jul 29, 2026
Stock
UMBF
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$170.00
Jul 24, 2026
Stock
FLG
Action
Reiterated: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$15.00
Jul 24, 2026
Stock
AXP
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$415.00
Jul 23, 2026
Stock
VLY
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$17.00
Jul 23, 2026
Stock
PNFP
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$117.00
Jul 23, 2026
Stock
SLM
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$29.00

Jon’s ratings are free on Exent 3 days after publication. Exent Gems has them the same day, with the calls of the top‑ranked analysts and the stocks where several of them agree.

See the top-ranked analysts in Gems

How Exent scores analysts

Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Jun 24, 2026; ranking updated Oct 20, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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Exent Gems shows Jon Arfstrom’s live ratings and those of the top‑ranked analysts, without the 30‑day delay used on this page.
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Frequently asked questions

By Exent’s scoring Jon Arfstrom ranks #331 of 1,000 with a 4.9★ rating. 54.1% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 52.4%), and 66.0% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.

Jon Arfstrom’s success rate is 60.3% by the ranking source and 54.1% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 106 days to reach a target.

Jon Arfstrom (RBC Capital) covers 31 stocks, mostly in financials. The most frequently rated are HBAN, PNFP, ASB, WAL, FHN.

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DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.

What changed since Oct 12

Key takeaways

Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data

How to Follow Wall Street Analysts the Smart Way: Track Records, Not Headlines

What Are Exent Gems? Top‑Analyst Agreement Explained