Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
How often Bill Carcache’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 270 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.
Bill Carcache of Piper Sandler ranks #360 of the 1,121 analysts Exent scores, with a 4.9★ rating and a focus on financials. Over a 7‑year lookback, 47.1% of Bill’s price targets were reached, 6.5 points below the 53.6% average across all analysts.
| Metric | Bill Carcache | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 47.1% | 53.6% |
| Median days to hit target | 166 days | 91 days |
| Calls up after 12 months | 64.0% | 64.6% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +16.4% | +13.4% |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | 8.6% | — |
| Average worst drop after a call | −21.8% | — |
| Ratings in the sample | 270 | — |
| Stocks covered | 35 | — |
The full records of Exent’s top 90 analysts and the top 50 of each sector, and the stocks where several of them agree right now, are members‑only in Exent Gems.
| Time to reach the target | Bill Carcache |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 16.0% |
| 30–90 days | 11.3% |
| 90–180 days | 28.3% |
| Over 180 days | 44.3% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
In the past year Bill’s ratings were 75% Buy, 25% Hold and 0% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | JKHY | Upgraded: Buy | Buy | $175.00 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | XYZ | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $105.00 |
| Oct 1, 2026 | XYZ | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $105.00 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | V | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $430.00 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | MA | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $710.00 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | COF | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $260.00 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | COF | Rated: Buy | Buy | $260.00 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | V | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $430.00 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | AXP | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $405.00 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | AXP | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $405.00 |
| Sep 28, 2026 | MA | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $710.00 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | QTWO | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $82.00 |
Bill’s ratings are free on Exent 3 days after publication. Exent Gems has them the same day, with the calls of the top‑ranked analysts and the stocks where several of them agree.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Oct 20, 2026; ranking updated Oct 21, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring Bill Carcache ranks #360 of 1,121 with a 4.9★ rating. 47.1% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 53.6%), and 64.0% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
Bill Carcache’s success rate is 66.7% by the ranking source and 47.1% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 166 days to reach a target.
Bill Carcache (Piper Sandler) covers 35 stocks, mostly in financials. The most frequently rated are AXP, PYPL, COF, PNC, SYF.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.