AnalystsInsight

Richard Shane (J.P. Morgan): Analyst Track Record and Price‑Target Accuracy

How often Richard Shane’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 1,595 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.

Reviewed by:David, Senior AnalystPublished Oct 12, 2026Updated Oct 18, 20263 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 12

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; live calls are in Gems.

#578 rank (was #493)

Key takeaways

Richard Shane ranks #551 of 1,000 analysts in Exent’s scoring (4.8★).
44.7% of price targets were reached over 7 years, versus 52.4% for the average analyst.
Median time to reach a target: 86 days; 62.0% of calls were up 12 months later.
Most‑covered stocks: BXMT, KREF, ABR, TRTX.
Free on Exent: Richard Shane’s full record, with ratings 3 days after publication.

In this article

Richard Shane’s track record at a glance
How fast price targets were reached
Stocks Richard Shane covers most
Richard Shane’s latest ratings
How Exent scores analysts

Richard Shane’s track record at a glance

Richard Shane of J.P. Morgan ranks #551 of the 1,000 analysts Exent scores, with a 4.8★ rating and a focus on financials. Over a 7‑year lookback, 44.7% of Richard’s price targets were reached, 7.7 points below the 52.4% average across all analysts.

Metric	Richard Shane	All analysts
Price‑target hit rate	44.7%	52.4%
Median days to hit target	86 days	91 days
Calls up after 12 months	62.0%	64.0%
Median 12‑month return of calls	+8.9%	+13.4%
Hit rate, last 2 years	58.0%	—
Average worst drop after a call	−19.0%	—
Ratings in the sample	1,595	—
Stocks covered	41	—

The full records of Exent’s top 90 analysts and the top 50 of each sector, and the stocks where several of them agree right now, are members‑only in Exent Gems.

See the top-ranked analysts in Gems

How fast price targets were reached

Time to reach the target	Richard Shane
Under 30 days	21.8%
30–90 days	30.4%
90–180 days	22.7%
Over 180 days	25.1%

Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.

Stocks Richard Shane covers most

Stock	Ratings in the sample
BXMT	23
KREF	19
ABR	18
TRTX	18
NMIH	16
ALLY	16
RWT	15
NLY	15

In the past year Richard’s ratings were 37% Buy, 48% Hold and 15% Sell.

Richard Shane’s latest ratings

Date	Stock	Action	Rating	Price target
Aug 20, 2026	TSLX	Maintained: Hold	Hold	$17.50
Aug 19, 2026	FSK	Maintained: Hold	Hold	$11.00
Aug 19, 2026	FSK	Reiterated: Hold	Hold	$11.00
Aug 19, 2026	WHF	Rated: Sell	Sell	$6.50
Aug 19, 2026	TSLX	Reiterated: Hold	Hold	$17.50
Aug 18, 2026	STWD	Rated: Buy	Buy	$18.50
Aug 14, 2026	ESNT	Maintained: Hold	Hold	$72.00
Aug 14, 2026	ESNT	Reiterated: Hold	Hold	$72.00
Aug 10, 2026	BXSL	Reiterated: Buy	Buy	$24.00
Aug 10, 2026	RKT	Maintained: Hold	Hold	$14.00
Aug 10, 2026	BXSL	Maintained: Buy	Buy	$24.00
Aug 10, 2026	RKT	Reiterated: Hold	Hold	$14.00

Aug 20, 2026
Stock
TSLX
Action
Maintained: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$17.50
Aug 19, 2026
Stock
FSK
Action
Maintained: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$11.00
Aug 19, 2026
Stock
FSK
Action
Reiterated: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$11.00
Aug 19, 2026
Stock
WHF
Action
Rated: Sell
Rating
Sell
Price target
$6.50
Aug 19, 2026
Stock
TSLX
Action
Reiterated: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$17.50
Aug 18, 2026
Stock
STWD
Action
Rated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$18.50
Aug 14, 2026
Stock
ESNT
Action
Maintained: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$72.00
Aug 14, 2026
Stock
ESNT
Action
Reiterated: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$72.00
Aug 10, 2026
Stock
BXSL
Action
Reiterated: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$24.00
Aug 10, 2026
Stock
RKT
Action
Maintained: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$14.00
Aug 10, 2026
Stock
BXSL
Action
Maintained: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$24.00
Aug 10, 2026
Stock
RKT
Action
Reiterated: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$14.00

Richard’s ratings are free on Exent 3 days after publication. Exent Gems has them the same day, with the calls of the top‑ranked analysts and the stocks where several of them agree.

See the top-ranked analysts in Gems

How Exent scores analysts

Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Jun 24, 2026; ranking updated Oct 20, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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Exent Gems shows Richard Shane’s live ratings and those of the top‑ranked analysts, without the 30‑day delay used on this page.
Gems are the stocks where several 4★+ analysts agree: Exent’s shortlist of high‑conviction ideas.
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Frequently asked questions

By Exent’s scoring Richard Shane ranks #551 of 1,000 with a 4.8★ rating. 44.7% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 52.4%), and 62.0% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.

Richard Shane’s success rate is 62.6% by the ranking source and 44.7% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 86 days to reach a target.

Richard Shane (J.P. Morgan) covers 41 stocks, mostly in financials. The most frequently rated are BXMT, KREF, ABR, TRTX, NMIH.

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DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.

What changed since Oct 12

Key takeaways

Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data

How to Follow Wall Street Analysts the Smart Way: Track Records, Not Headlines

What Are Exent Gems? Top‑Analyst Agreement Explained