Which Wall Street Analysts Are the Most Accurate?
How Exent ranks Wall Street analysts on a 7‑year backtest, which public records stand out, which firms and sectors do best, and how to judge any analyst before you read their next call.
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Which Bank Has the Best Stock Analysts?
Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley or J.P. Morgan? What Exent’s data on 1,148 ranked analysts shows about firm size, the big banks, and why the analyst matters more than the logo.
Key takeaways
- No bank is reliably best. In Exent’s data, analysts at nine large global banks had a median price-target hit rate of 59.4%, against 53.1% at other firms, but the spread inside every bank was far wider than the gap between them.
- Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley analysts had median hit rates of 64.0%, 57.9% and 58.0%; within each bank, the middle half of analysts spanned roughly 14 to 16 points.
- The most accurate analysts are spread widely: in the same data, 120 five-star analysts worked outside the nine big banks, against 26 inside them.
- Firm results also reflect what they cover. Healthcare analysts had a median hit rate of 42.6% against 60.0% in technology.
Which stocks do Wall Street’s best‑ranked analysts agree on? See them in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Which bank has the best stock analysts?
- Are big-bank analysts more accurate than smaller firms?
- Goldman Sachs vs Morgan Stanley vs J.P. Morgan: how do their analysts compare?
- Why do firm averages mislead?
- Exent’s top 50 analysts
- What about published analyst rankings and polls?
- How should you decide whose ratings to trust?
Which bank has the best stock analysts?
None consistently. The bank is a weak guide to the quality of a single analyst. In Exent’s 7-year backtest of the 1,148 ranked analysts, large global banks did score higher as a group. But each bank employs analysts with very different records, and many of the strongest records sit at mid-size and specialist firms.
The useful question is not “which bank?” but “which analyst, on which stocks?” That is what ranking analysts by accuracy tries to answer.
Are big-bank analysts more accurate than smaller firms?
Somewhat, on average. Analysts at nine large global banks had a higher median hit rate than the rest. Accuracy here means the share of bullish price targets reached within 12 months.
| Firm group | Ranked analysts | 5★ analysts | Median hit rate | Middle half of analysts | Median 12-month call return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nine large global banks | 298 | 26 | 59.4% | 51.0%–67.5% | 15.6% |
| All other firms | 850 | 120 | 53.1% | 41.7%–62.0% | 13.1% |
| Firms with 20+ ranked analysts | 624 | 79 | 56.0% | 46.8%–64.4% | 14.3% |
| Firms with 10–19 | 289 | 41 | 53.8% | 40.7%–63.6% | 13.3% |
| Firms with fewer than 10 | 235 | 26 | 51.4% | 39.1%–60.7% | 13.1% |
- Nine large global banks
- Ranked analysts
- 298
- 5★ analysts
- 26
- Median hit rate
- 59.4%
- Middle half of analysts
- 51.0%–67.5%
- Median 12-month call return
- 15.6%
- All other firms
- Ranked analysts
- 850
- 5★ analysts
- 120
- Median hit rate
- 53.1%
- Middle half of analysts
- 41.7%–62.0%
- Median 12-month call return
- 13.1%
- Firms with 20+ ranked analysts
- Ranked analysts
- 624
- 5★ analysts
- 79
- Median hit rate
- 56.0%
- Middle half of analysts
- 46.8%–64.4%
- Median 12-month call return
- 14.3%
- Firms with 10–19
- Ranked analysts
- 289
- 5★ analysts
- 41
- Median hit rate
- 53.8%
- Middle half of analysts
- 40.7%–63.6%
- Median 12-month call return
- 13.3%
- Firms with fewer than 10
- Ranked analysts
- 235
- 5★ analysts
- 26
- Median hit rate
- 51.4%
- Middle half of analysts
- 39.1%–60.7%
- Median 12-month call return
- 13.1%
Source: Exent’s analyst data, statistics as of Nov 2, 2026. The nine banks are Bank of America Securities, Barclays, Citi, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS and Wells Fargo. “Middle half” is the range from the 25th to the 75th percentile analyst.
Notice the overlap: the middle half of analysts at other firms reached 41.7%–62.0% of their targets, against 51.0%–67.5% at the big banks. And 120 of the 146 5★ analysts worked outside the big banks: 14.1% of analysts at other firms were rated 5★, against 8.7% at the big banks.
Goldman Sachs vs Morgan Stanley vs J.P. Morgan: how do their analysts compare?
The differences between them were smaller than the spread within each bank. Listed alphabetically:
| Bank | Ranked analysts | Median hit rate | Middle half of its analysts | Median share of calls up after 12 months | Median days to hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 28 | 64.0% | 53.4%–69.3% | 69.7% | 81 |
| J.P. Morgan | 45 | 57.9% | 50.4%–64.0% | 67.3% | 86 |
| Morgan Stanley | 34 | 58.0% | 49.6%–63.8% | 64.7% | 79 |
| Bank | Goldman Sachs | J.P. Morgan | Morgan Stanley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ranked analysts | 28 | 45 | 34 |
| Median hit rate | 64.0% | 57.9% | 58.0% |
| Middle half of its analysts | 53.4%–69.3% | 50.4%–64.0% | 49.6%–63.8% |
| Median share of calls up after 12 months | 69.7% | 67.3% | 64.7% |
| Median days to hit | 81 | 86 | 79 |
Past track record, statistics as of Nov 2, 2026. Each bank’s profile has the full breakdown by sector and analyst: Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley. Small samples matter: a bank with 28 ranked analysts can move a few points if two analysts leave or join.
Why do firm averages mislead?
Because firms cover different kinds of stocks, and some sectors are much harder to call. The gap between sectors is bigger than the gap between banks (sector medians as of Nov 2, 2026):
| Sector | Ranked analysts | Median hit rate |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 260 | 60.0% |
| Materials | 104 | 59.5% |
| Industrials | 180 | 57.2% |
| Consumer Staples | 13 | 56.2% |
| Financials | 168 | 54.0% |
| Energy | 79 | 53.2% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 70 | 52.3% |
| Communication Services | 56 | 51.8% |
| Utilities | 29 | 43.8% |
| Healthcare | 165 | 42.6% |
| Real Estate | 24 | 36.0% |
A boutique that specializes in small biotech stocks will look worse than a bank covering large technology companies, even if its analysts are just as skilled. Compare analysts against peers in the same sector. More in analyst accuracy by sector.
Exent’s top 50 analysts
Across 958,671 ratings, the average Wall Street analyst’s price target was reached 53.1% of the time: close to a coin flip. The spread between analysts is wide, and 14.9% of the 942 analysts with a measurable record reached 70% or more (Exent data, Nov 2, 2026).
Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking. Over the last two years, some of them reached 90% or more of their price targets. Who they are, which stocks they are calling now and how often they have been right is for members.
What about published analyst rankings and polls?
Industry polls ask fund managers which analysts they value. That rewards access, service and insight, not only the accuracy of ratings and targets. A highly voted analyst may be prized for industry knowledge even if their price targets miss often. A record-based ranking asks a narrower question: how did this analyst’s past calls actually play out? Both are useful. They answer different things. See how to judge an analyst.
How should you decide whose ratings to trust?
- Judge the analyst, not the bank: look up their own hit rate and number of calls.
- Compare within a sector, since some sectors are far harder to call than others.
- Prefer long records with many calls over a few lucky ones.
- Check whether the record held up recently, not only years ago.
- Give more weight when several strong analysts at different firms agree independently.
A public ranking of analysts by past accuracy makes the first and fourth checks quick. Treat any rating as one input to your own research, not as advice.
How to check an analyst’s record with Exent
- Look up any analyst in Exent’s rankings: thousands of Wall Street analysts scored by past price-target accuracy, with their sector and number of calls.
- Open an analyst profile to see their price targets and how their past calls played out.
- Stocks Radar flags Gems: stocks where several of the best-rated analysts agree. Treat them as research leads, not advice.
Frequently asked questions
In Exent’s data, Goldman Sachs analysts had a median price-target hit rate of 64.0%, against 57.9% at J.P. Morgan and 58.0% at Morgan Stanley. The spread among analysts inside each bank was larger than the gap between banks.
On average their analysts had higher hit rates in Exent’s data, 59.4% against 53.1%. But most 5-star analysts worked at other firms, and sector mix explains part of the gap.
In Exent’s data, technology and materials analysts had the highest median hit rates, 60.0% and 59.5%. Healthcare and real estate analysts were lowest, at 42.6% and 36.0%.
Not by itself. The individual analyst’s track record on similar stocks is a better guide than the firm’s name.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.