Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
Exent ranks 63 energy analysts among Wall Street’s 1,000 by price‑target hit rate, returns after their calls and number of ratings, from a 7‑year backtest. How the sector’s analysts do, and who ranks below the members‑only top 50.
| Median across the sector’s analysts | Energy | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 51.1% | 52.4% |
| Calls up after 12 months | 66.3% | 64.0% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +15.1% | +13.4% |
| Median days to hit target | 103 days | 91 days |
The top 50 energy analysts are the ones Exent Gems follows in this sector. Who they are and what they are rating now is for members; their records are below.
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 5.0★ | 39.2% | ||
| #2 | 5.0★ | 0.0% | ||
| #3 | 5.0★ | 71.1% | ||
| #4 | 5.0★ | — | ||
| #5 | 5.0★ | — | ||
| #6 | 5.0★ | 44.3% | ||
| #7 | 5.0★ | 45.3% | ||
| #8 | 5.0★ | 54.1% | ||
| #9 | 5.0★ | — | ||
| #10 | 5.0★ | 51.6% |
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate | Newest ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #51 | Andreas Nygard | Nordea Markets | 4.7★ | 10.0% | After 3 days |
| #52 | Pei Hwa Ho | DBS | 4.7★ | 13.3% | After 3 days |
| #53 | Spiro M. Dounis | Citi | 4.7★ | 46.8% | After 3 days |
| #54 | Arun Jayaram | J.P. Morgan | 4.7★ | 53.8% | After 3 days |
| #55 | Michele Della Vigna | Goldman Sachs | 4.7★ | 16.7% | After 3 days |
| #56 | Doug Leggate | Wolfe Research | 4.7★ | 40.2% | After 3 days |
| #57 | Victoria Mcculloch | RBC Capital | 4.6★ | 75.0% | After 3 days |
| #58 | Guillaume Delaby | Bernstein | 4.5★ | 53.3% | After 3 days |
| #59 | Subash Chandra | Benchmark Co. | 4.5★ | 50.0% | After 3 days |
| #60 | Alex Brooks | Canaccord Genuity | 4.5★ | — | After 3 days |
| #61 | Derek Podhaizer | Piper Sandler | 4.5★ | 62.8% | After 3 days |
| #62 | David Anderson | Barclays | 4.4★ | 59.3% | After 3 days |
| #63 | Dim Ariyasinghe | UBS | 3.9★ | — | After 3 days |
Every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback is replayed: was the target reached, how fast, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months later. The ranking combines success rate, average return and number of ratings; the sector rank orders the analysts whose main sector is energy. Sector figures are medians, so one star analyst does not carry the group. All sectors and the overall ranking.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
In Exent’s ranking, the top energy analyst reached 39.2% of price targets over a 7-year lookback, against a 51.1% median for the sector. The names and live calls of the top 50 energy analysts are members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar).
Across the 63 energy analysts in Exent’s ranking, the median price-target hit rate was 51.1% over a 7-year lookback, against 52.4% for all analysts, and a median 66.3% of their calls were up 12 months later.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.