Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
Exent ranks 207 technology analysts among Wall Street’s 1,000 by price‑target hit rate, returns after their calls and number of ratings, from a 7‑year backtest. How the sector’s analysts do, and who ranks below the members‑only top 50.
| Median across the sector’s analysts | Technology | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 61.8% | 52.4% |
| Calls up after 12 months | 64.7% | 64.0% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +16.3% | +13.4% |
| Median days to hit target | 78 days | 91 days |
The top 50 technology analysts are the ones Exent Gems follows in this sector. Who they are and what they are rating now is for members; their records are below.
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 5.0★ | 78.3% | ||
| #2 | 5.0★ | 71.4% | ||
| #3 | 5.0★ | 66.7% | ||
| #4 | 5.0★ | 64.7% | ||
| #5 | 5.0★ | 74.6% | ||
| #6 | 5.0★ | 69.1% | ||
| #7 | 5.0★ | 63.0% | ||
| #8 | 5.0★ | 64.6% | ||
| #9 | 5.0★ | 63.3% | ||
| #10 | 5.0★ | 62.6% |
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate | Newest ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #42 | Mark Newman | Bernstein | 5.0★ | 64.8% | After 3 days |
| #43 | Bill Papanastasiou | Chardan Capital | 5.0★ | 79.9% | After 3 days |
| #44 | Srini Pajjuri | RBC Capital | 5.0★ | 84.2% | After 3 days |
| #45 | Ross Seymore | Deutsche Bank | 5.0★ | 63.4% | After 3 days |
| #51 | Joshua Buchalter | TD Cowen | 5.0★ | 79.4% | After 30 days |
| #52 | Joseph Moore | Morgan Stanley | 5.0★ | 64.6% | After 30 days |
| #53 | Nehal Chokshi | Northland Securities | 5.0★ | 39.2% | After 30 days |
| #54 | James Ricchiuti | Needham | 5.0★ | 68.3% | After 30 days |
| #78 | Adam Borg | Stifel Nicolaus | 4.9★ | 63.9% | After 3 days |
| #79 | Masahiro Nakanomyo | Jefferies | 4.9★ | — | After 3 days |
| #80 | George Notter | Wolfe Research | 4.9★ | 55.6% | After 3 days |
| #81 | Jim Hin Kwong Au | DBS | 4.9★ | 75.8% | After 3 days |
| #82 | Ananda Baruah | Loop Capital Markets | 4.9★ | 57.4% | After 3 days |
| #83 | Mike Crawford | B. Riley Securities | 4.9★ | 51.9% | After 3 days |
| #84 | Joseph Gallo | Jefferies | 4.9★ | 67.6% | After 3 days |
| #85 | Joseph Quatrochi | Wells Fargo | 4.9★ | 70.8% | After 3 days |
| #86 | Alex Zukin | Wolfe Research | 4.9★ | 65.4% | After 3 days |
| #87 | Erik Suppiger | B. Riley Securities | 4.9★ | 41.3% | After 3 days |
| #88 | Erik Woodring | Morgan Stanley | 4.9★ | 73.6% | After 3 days |
| #89 | Andrew Gardiner | Citi | 4.9★ | 85.0% | After 3 days |
| #90 | Ryan MacWilliams | Wells Fargo | 4.9★ | 54.6% | After 3 days |
| #91 | Karl Keirstead | UBS | 4.9★ | 66.0% | After 3 days |
| #92 | Richard Tse | National Bank | 4.9★ | — | After 3 days |
| #93 | Gray Powell | BTIG | 4.9★ | 50.6% | After 3 days |
| #94 | Chris Dendrinos | RBC Capital | 4.9★ | 66.0% | After 3 days |
| #95 | Jaeson Schmidt | Lake Street | 4.9★ | 57.3% | After 3 days |
| #96 | Ryan Koontz | Needham | 4.9★ | 54.4% | After 3 days |
| #97 | Daiki Takayama | Goldman Sachs | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #98 | Thomas Diffely | D.A. Davidson | 4.9★ | 60.2% | After 3 days |
| #99 | James Schneider | Goldman Sachs | 4.9★ | 61.7% | After 3 days |
More technology analysts: Jacob Stephan · Greg Palm · Gus Richard · Atsushi Yoshioka · Paul Chew · Mariana Perez Mora · Shebly Seyrafi · Andrew Nowinski · Kinngai Chan · Katherine Murphy · Angelo Zino · Brad Zelnick · Blair Abernethy · Karl Ackerman · Keith Weiss · Gary Mobley · David Koning · Mark Li · Papa Talla Sylla · Takayuki Naito · Vedvati Shrotre · Robert Sanders MBA · Alex NG · Kai Korschelt · Josh Beck · Mark Shmulik · Joseph Bonner · Robert Young · Stephen Bersey · Pierre Ferragu · Richard Baldry · Max Michaelis · Amit Garg · Mark Moerdler · Robert Mason CFA · Malte Schaumann · Yik Ban Chong · Mio Shikanai · Shane Brett CFA · Rudy Kessinger · Jed Dorsheimer · Harry Blaiklock · Hamed Khorsand · Jack Andrews · Kazuo Yoshikawa · Alexander Duval · Shyam Patil · Vincent Colicchio · Jeff Van Rhee · Moshe Katri · Sandeep Deshpande · Anthony Stoss · Shingo Hirata · Peter Peng · Andrew Jeffrey · Alan Hon · Yun Kim · Daley Li · Louis Miscioscia · Gokul Hariharan · Tal Liani · Ben Reitzes · Koji Ikeda · Ruben Devos · Francois Xavier Bouvignies · Timothy Horan · Joseph Vafi · Steven Koenig · David Dai CFA · Steven Fox · Daniel Rosenberg MBA · Martin Yang · Gabriel Leung · Mark Zhang · Darrin Peller · Edison Lee · Shuhei Nakamura · Paul Treiber · Matthew Prisco · Brett Knoblauch · Glenn G Mattson · Josh Nichols · John Blackledge · Darren Aftahi · Scott Searle · Eric Martinuzzi · Nigel van Putten · William Tng · Ling Lee Keng · Yoshihito Hasegawa · John Cheong · Charlie Chan · David Paige · Kelsey Chia · Matthew Galinko · Troy Jensen · Akinori Kanemoto · Giovanni Selvetti · Janardan Menon · Brian Kinstlinger · Madeleine Jenkins · Philip Shen · Gregory P Miller · Qingyuan Lin · Sean O'Loughlin · Amelie Dueckelmann-Dublany · Michael Donovan · Daniel Ives
Every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback is replayed: was the target reached, how fast, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months later. The ranking combines success rate, average return and number of ratings; the sector rank orders the analysts whose main sector is technology. Sector figures are medians, so one star analyst does not carry the group. All sectors and the overall ranking.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
In Exent’s ranking, the top technology analyst reached 78.3% of price targets over a 7-year lookback, against a 61.8% median for the sector. The names and live calls of the top 50 technology analysts are members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar).
Across the 207 technology analysts in Exent’s ranking, the median price-target hit rate was 61.8% over a 7-year lookback, against 52.4% for all analysts, and a median 64.7% of their calls were up 12 months later.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.