Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 921,573 analyst ratings.
How often John Difucci’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 773 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; live calls are in Gems.
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John Difucci of Guggenheim ranks #184 of the 1,121 analysts Exent scores, with a 4.9★ rating and a focus on technology. Over a 7‑year lookback, 40.5% of John’s price targets were reached, 13.1 points below the 53.6% average across all analysts.
| Metric | John Difucci | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 40.5% | 53.6% |
| Median days to hit target | 120 days | 91 days |
| Calls up after 12 months | 66.6% | 64.6% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +19.8% | +13.4% |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | 36.7% | — |
| Average worst drop after a call | −22.7% | — |
| Ratings in the sample | 773 | — |
| Stocks covered | 24 | — |
The full records of Exent’s top 90 analysts and the top 50 of each sector, and the stocks where several of them agree right now, are members‑only in Exent Gems.
| Time to reach the target | John Difucci |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 21.1% |
| 30–90 days | 22.9% |
| 90–180 days | 15.1% |
| Over 180 days | 41.0% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
In the past year John’s ratings were 67% Buy, 26% Hold and 6% Sell.
Across 921,573 ratings, the average Wall Street analyst’s price target was reached 53.6% of the time: close to a coin flip. The spread between analysts is wide, and 15.6% of the 917 analysts with a measurable record reached 70% or more (Exent data, Oct 20, 2026).
Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking. Over the last two years, some of them reached 90% or more of their price targets. Who they are, which stocks they are calling now and how often they have been right is for members.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| Oct 7, 2026 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| Sep 25, 2026 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| Sep 24, 2026 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| Sep 17, 2026 | CRM | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $300.00 |
| Sep 14, 2026 | ORCL | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $400.00 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | ZS | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $214.00 |
| Sep 2, 2026 | PANW | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $0.00 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | RBRK | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $116.00 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | S | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $28.00 |
| Aug 28, 2026 | WDAY | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $275.00 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | CRWD | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $0.00 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | CRM | Rated: Buy | Buy | $270.00 |
| Aug 27, 2026 | OKTA | Rated: Buy | Buy | $188.00 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | SNOW | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $0.00 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | ZS | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $214.00 |
John published 4 ratings in the last 30 days, the latest on Oct 19, 2026. Ratings from the last 30 days are members‑only in Exent Gems, with the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree; older ratings are shown in full.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Oct 20, 2026; ranking updated Oct 22, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring John Difucci ranks #184 of 1,121 with a 4.9★ rating. 40.5% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 53.6%), and 66.6% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
John Difucci’s success rate is 63.3% by the ranking source and 40.5% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 120 days to reach a target.
John Difucci (Guggenheim) covers 24 stocks, mostly in technology. The most frequently rated are ORCL, WDAY, RBRK, MSFT, NOW.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.