Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 983,543 analyst ratings.
How often Alexei Gogolev’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 666 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.
Which stocks do Wall Street’s best‑ranked analysts agree on? See them in Exent Gems →
Alexei Gogolev of J.P. Morgan ranks #939 of the 1,181 analysts Exent scores, with a 4.6★ rating and a focus on technology. Over a 7‑year lookback, 50.9% of Alexei’s price targets were reached, 2.2 points below the 53.1% average across all analysts.
| Metric | Alexei Gogolev | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 50.9% | 53.1% |
| Median days to hit target | 93 days | 93 days |
| Calls up after 12 months | 44.4% | 64.4% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | −5.4% | +13.5% |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | 39.3% | — |
| Average worst drop after a call | −24.0% | — |
| Ratings in the sample | 666 | — |
| Stocks covered | 30 | — |
The full records of Exent’s top 50 analysts and the top 50 of each sector, and the stocks where several of them agree right now, are members‑only in Exent Gems.
| Time to reach the target | Alexei Gogolev |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 20.7% |
| 30–90 days | 25.1% |
| 90–180 days | 36.1% |
| Over 180 days | 18.1% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
In the past year Alexei’s ratings were 58% Buy, 30% Hold and 12% Sell.
Across 983,543 ratings, the average Wall Street analyst’s price target was reached 53.1% of the time: close to a coin flip. The spread between analysts is wide, and 14.3% of the 965 analysts with a measurable record reached 70% or more (Exent data, Nov 9, 2026).
Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking. Over the last two years, some of them reached 90% or more of their price targets. Who they are, which stocks they are calling now and how often they have been right is for members.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2026 | ??? | ??? | ??? | ??? |
| Nov 4, 2026 | WAY | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $32.00 |
| Nov 4, 2026 | PCOR | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $74.00 |
| Nov 3, 2026 | WAY | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $32.00 |
| Oct 28, 2026 | CSGP | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $44.00 |
| Oct 28, 2026 | INTA | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $47.00 |
| Oct 28, 2026 | CSGP | Rated: Buy | Buy | $44.00 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | VRSN | Maintained: Hold | Hold | $316.00 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | APPF | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $260.00 |
| Oct 23, 2026 | PEGA | Maintained: Hold | Hold | $42.00 |
| Oct 22, 2026 | PEGA | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $42.00 |
Alexei published 1 rating in the last 3 days, the latest on Nov 10, 2026. Alexei’s ratings are free on Exent 3 days after publication. Exent Gems has them the same day, with the calls of the top‑ranked analysts and the stocks where several of them agree.
Also at J.P. Morgan: Mark Murphy · Gokul Hariharan · Tami Zakaria · Vivek Juneja · Casey Woodring · Zach Parham
Also covering technology: Matthew Hedberg · Richard Poland · Howard Ma · James Fish · Billy Fitzsimmons · Josh Nichols
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Nov 9, 2026; ranking updated Nov 11, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring Alexei Gogolev ranks #939 of 1,181 with a 4.6★ rating. 50.9% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 53.1%), and 44.4% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
In Exent’s 7-year price-target backtest, 50.9% of Alexei Gogolev’s price targets were reached, with a median of 93 days to reach a target (all analysts: 53.1%).
Alexei Gogolev (J.P. Morgan) covers 30 stocks, mostly in technology. The most frequently rated are PCOR, CSGP, GDDY, VRSN, WIX.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.