Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
How often Kirk Materne’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 1,567 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.
Kirk Materne of Evercore ISI ranks #948 of the 1,121 analysts Exent scores, with a 4.6★ rating and a focus on technology. Over a 7‑year lookback, 55.5% of Kirk’s price targets were reached, 1.9 points above the 53.6% average across all analysts.
| Metric | Kirk Materne | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 55.5% | 53.6% |
| Median days to hit target | 84 days | 91 days |
| Calls up after 12 months | 48.0% | 64.6% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | −1.8% | +13.4% |
| Hit rate, last 2 years | 48.2% | — |
| Average worst drop after a call | −28.2% | — |
| Ratings in the sample | 1,567 | — |
| Stocks covered | 26 | — |
The full records of Exent’s top 90 analysts and the top 50 of each sector, and the stocks where several of them agree right now, are members‑only in Exent Gems.
| Time to reach the target | Kirk Materne |
|---|---|
| Under 30 days | 21.7% |
| 30–90 days | 32.4% |
| 90–180 days | 22.3% |
| Over 180 days | 23.6% |
Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.
In the past year Kirk’s ratings were 75% Buy, 25% Hold and 0% Sell.
| Date | Stock | Action | Rating | Price target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2026 | ||||
| Oct 14, 2026 | WDAY | Maintained: Hold | Hold | $215.00 |
| Oct 14, 2026 | WDAY | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $215.00 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | NOW | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $175.00 |
| Oct 13, 2026 | NOW | Maintained: Buy | Buy | $175.00 |
| Oct 7, 2026 | MSFT | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $0.00 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | MDB | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $525.00 |
| Sep 24, 2026 | ORCL | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $0.00 |
| Sep 22, 2026 | TYL | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $375.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | ORCL | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $0.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | CRM | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $290.00 |
| Sep 15, 2026 | INTU | Reiterated: Buy | Buy | $400.00 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | ADBE | Reiterated: Hold | Hold | $250.00 |
Kirk published 1 rating in the last 3 days, the latest on Oct 20, 2026. Kirk’s ratings are free on Exent 3 days after publication. Exent Gems has them the same day, with the calls of the top‑ranked analysts and the stocks where several of them agree.
Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Oct 20, 2026; ranking updated Oct 21, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
By Exent’s scoring Kirk Materne ranks #948 of 1,121 with a 4.6★ rating. 55.5% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 53.6%), and 48.0% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.
Kirk Materne’s success rate is 57.0% by the ranking source and 55.5% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 84 days to reach a target.
Kirk Materne (Evercore ISI) covers 26 stocks, mostly in technology. The most frequently rated are CRM, MSFT, ORCL, SNOW, NOW.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.