Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
Exent ranks 67 consumer discretionary analysts among Wall Street’s 1,000 by price‑target hit rate, returns after their calls and number of ratings, from a 7‑year backtest. How the sector’s analysts do, and who ranks below the members‑only top 50.
| Median across the sector’s analysts | Consumer Discretionary | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 50.7% | 52.4% |
| Calls up after 12 months | 59.8% | 64.0% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +8.8% | +13.4% |
| Median days to hit target | 87 days | 91 days |
The top 50 consumer discretionary analysts are the ones Exent Gems follows in this sector. Who they are and what they are rating now is for members; their records are below.
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 5.0★ | 89.2% | ||
| #2 | 4.9★ | 59.6% | ||
| #3 | 4.9★ | 54.2% | ||
| #4 | 4.9★ | 49.7% | ||
| #5 | 4.9★ | 61.9% | ||
| #6 | 4.9★ | — | ||
| #7 | 4.9★ | 50.2% | ||
| #8 | 4.9★ | 16.0% | ||
| #9 | 4.9★ | 53.2% | ||
| #10 | 4.9★ | — |
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate | Newest ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #51 | Christoph Laskawi | Deutsche Bank | 4.6★ | — | After 3 days |
| #52 | Hillary Cacanando | Deutsche Bank | 4.6★ | 43.4% | After 3 days |
| #53 | Lauren Silberman | Deutsche Bank | 4.6★ | 42.7% | After 3 days |
| #54 | John Staszak | Argus Research | 4.6★ | 43.6% | After 3 days |
| #55 | Vishal Shreedhar | National Bank | 4.5★ | — | After 3 days |
| #56 | Paul Lejuez | Citi | 4.5★ | 63.7% | After 3 days |
| #57 | Jon Tower | Citi | 4.5★ | 50.5% | After 3 days |
| #58 | Rafe Jadrosich | Bank of America Securities | 4.5★ | 63.9% | After 3 days |
| #59 | Ivan Feinseth | Tigress Financial | 4.5★ | 23.3% | After 3 days |
| #60 | Wataru Ishimoto | Nomura | 4.5★ | — | After 3 days |
| #61 | Gregory Miller | Truist Financial | 4.5★ | 60.1% | After 3 days |
| #62 | Brian Mullan | Piper Sandler | 4.5★ | 56.1% | After 3 days |
| #63 | Patrick Scholes | Truist Financial | 4.4★ | 46.6% | After 3 days |
| #64 | Chris O`Cull | Robert W. Baird | 4.4★ | 46.9% | After 3 days |
| #65 | Joseph Stauff | Susquehanna | 4.3★ | 46.8% | After 3 days |
| #66 | Susan Anderson | Canaccord Genuity | 4.3★ | 41.7% | After 3 days |
| #67 | Brandt Montour | Barclays | 3.9★ | 57.3% | After 3 days |
Every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback is replayed: was the target reached, how fast, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months later. The ranking combines success rate, average return and number of ratings; the sector rank orders the analysts whose main sector is consumer discretionary. Sector figures are medians, so one star analyst does not carry the group. All sectors and the overall ranking.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
In Exent’s ranking, the top consumer discretionary analyst reached 89.2% of price targets over a 7-year lookback, against a 50.7% median for the sector. The names and live calls of the top 50 consumer discretionary analysts are members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar).
Across the 67 consumer discretionary analysts in Exent’s ranking, the median price-target hit rate was 50.7% over a 7-year lookback, against 52.4% for all analysts, and a median 59.8% of their calls were up 12 months later.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.