Are Analyst Price Targets Accurate? 7 Years of Data
How often Wall Street price targets are reached, how long it takes, and how the promised upside compares with what stocks actually did. From Exent’s backtest of 628,792 analyst ratings.
Exent ranks 169 industrials analysts among Wall Street’s 1,000 by price‑target hit rate, returns after their calls and number of ratings, from a 7‑year backtest. How the sector’s analysts do, and who ranks below the members‑only top 50.
| Median across the sector’s analysts | Industrials | All analysts |
|---|---|---|
| Price‑target hit rate | 58.8% | 52.4% |
| Calls up after 12 months | 69.5% | 64.0% |
| Median 12‑month return of calls | +14.6% | +13.4% |
| Median days to hit target | 95 days | 91 days |
The top 50 industrials analysts are the ones Exent Gems follows in this sector. Who they are and what they are rating now is for members; their records are below.
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 5.0★ | 69.4% | ||
| #2 | 5.0★ | 65.6% | ||
| #3 | 5.0★ | 56.1% | ||
| #5 | 5.0★ | 54.4% | ||
| #6 | 5.0★ | 73.3% | ||
| #7 | 5.0★ | 57.3% | ||
| #8 | 5.0★ | 66.9% | ||
| #9 | 5.0★ | 44.6% | ||
| #10 | 4.9★ | — | ||
| #11 | 4.9★ | 6.7% |
| Sector rank | Analyst | Firm | Stars | Hit rate | Newest ratings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #4 | Walter Spracklin | RBC Capital | 5.0★ | 67.7% | After 3 days |
| #51 | Ronald Epstein | Bank of America Securities | 4.9★ | 65.3% | After 3 days |
| #52 | Doug Taylor | National Bank | 4.9★ | — | After 3 days |
| #53 | Ian Douglas | UBS | 4.9★ | — | After 3 days |
| #54 | Daniela Costa | Goldman Sachs | 4.8★ | 29.4% | After 3 days |
| #55 | Christian Wetherbee | Wells Fargo | 4.8★ | 58.4% | After 3 days |
| #56 | John-B Kim | Deutsche Bank | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #57 | Brett Linzey | Mizuho Securities | 4.8★ | 63.7% | After 3 days |
| #58 | Matthew Chen CFA | MA Financial Group | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #59 | Mark Fielding | RBC Capital | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #60 | Mircea Dobre | Robert W. Baird | 4.8★ | 55.5% | After 3 days |
| #61 | Joseph C Giordano | TD Cowen | 4.8★ | 59.3% | After 3 days |
| #62 | Michael Doumet | National Bank | 4.8★ | 100.0% | After 3 days |
| #63 | Stephanie Moore | Jefferies | 4.8★ | 52.1% | After 3 days |
| #64 | Liam Burke | B. Riley Securities | 4.8★ | 28.6% | After 3 days |
| #65 | Devin Dodge | BMO Capital | 4.8★ | 40.7% | After 3 days |
| #66 | Aymeric Poulain | Kepler Capital | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #67 | Seth Seifman | J.P. Morgan | 4.8★ | 68.3% | After 3 days |
| #68 | Jeffrey Hammond | KeyBanc | 4.8★ | 58.8% | After 3 days |
| #69 | Nicole Deblase | Deutsche Bank | 4.8★ | 51.3% | After 3 days |
| #70 | Konark Gupta | Scotiabank | 4.8★ | 24.0% | After 3 days |
| #71 | William Mackie | Kepler Capital | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #72 | Scott Deuschle | Deutsche Bank | 4.8★ | 73.5% | After 3 days |
| #73 | Myles Walton | Wolfe Research | 4.8★ | 46.1% | After 3 days |
| #74 | Joseph House | Bell Potter | 4.8★ | — | After 3 days |
| #75 | Ted Jackson | Northland Securities | 4.8★ | 38.8% | After 3 days |
| #76 | Charles Armitage | Citi | 4.8★ | 85.7% | After 3 days |
| #77 | Lucas Servera | Truist Financial | 4.8★ | 80.6% | After 3 days |
| #78 | Timothy Thein | Raymond James | 4.8★ | 67.0% | After 3 days |
| #79 | Maxim Sytchev | National Bank | 4.8★ | 50.0% | After 3 days |
More industrials analysts: Milene Kerner · Julio Romero · Christian Cohrs · David E. Strauss · Michael Tupholme · Elodie Rall · Philip Ng · Colin Canfield · Daniel Imbro · Kyle Menges · Deane Dray · Cameron Doerksen · Gael De-Bray · John Lawlor, CFA · Aaron Spychalla · Peter Skibitski · Nicholas Rawlinson · Scott Graham · Mark Marcon · Joe Ritchie · Andre Madrid · Kenneth Newman · Bascome Majors · Garik Shmois · Phil Buller · Matt Summerville · Yuri Lynk · Jakob Cakarnis · Vivek Midha · Sven Weier · David Perry · Fabian Piasta · Sean McLoughlin · Tim James · Keith Hughes · Ryan Pfingst · Cherilyn Radbourne · Max Yates · Mark Neville · William Park CPA · Kristine Liwag · Cameron Bell · Thomas Renaud · Chris Dankert · Christopher Kuhn · Michael Leshock · Ross Law · Karen Li · Gerhard Orgonas · Nicholas Housden · Jeff Martin · Stefan Augustin · Joe O'Dea · Michael Halloran · Sheila Kahyaoglu · Tom Burlton · Jay Huang · Eric Lau · Noel Atkinson · Eric Stine · Craig Irwin · Jason Sum · Holger Schmidt · Justin Hauke · Ian Munro · Adam Seiden · Joseph Osha · Joe Gomes · Ian Zaffino · Bo Qiong Wang · Scott Schneeberger · Brandon Oglenski · Christopher Snyder · Matthew Bouley · Thomas Wadewitz · Lasse Stueben · Tsubasa Sasaki · Vlad Bystricky · Kevin Chiang · David Vernon · Richard Dawson CFA · Michael Feniger · Tami Zakaria · Graham Hunt · Jerry Revich · Duane Pfennigwerth · Thomas Fitzgerald CFA · Jon Windham · Ross Sparenblek · Mark Strouse
Every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback is replayed: was the target reached, how fast, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months later. The ranking combines success rate, average return and number of ratings; the sector rank orders the analysts whose main sector is industrials. Sector figures are medians, so one star analyst does not carry the group. All sectors and the overall ranking.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
In Exent’s ranking, the top industrials analyst reached 69.4% of price targets over a 7-year lookback, against a 58.8% median for the sector. The names and live calls of the top 50 industrials analysts are members-only in Exent Gems (exent.ai/radar).
Across the 169 industrials analysts in Exent’s ranking, the median price-target hit rate was 58.8% over a 7-year lookback, against 52.4% for all analysts, and a median 69.5% of their calls were up 12 months later.
Exent tracks 4,000+ analysts, keeps only the elite few with proven records, and surfaces the Gems where they agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.