AnalystsInsight

Michael Ciarmoli (Guggenheim): Analyst Track Record and Price‑Target Accuracy

How often Michael Ciarmoli’s price targets were reached, how fast, and what the stocks did after each call: a 7‑year backtest of 1,366 ratings, compared with the average Wall Street analyst.

Reviewed by:David, Senior AnalystPublished Oct 19, 2026Updated Oct 19, 20263 min readHow we research

Key takeaways

Michael Ciarmoli ranks #106 of 1,000 analysts in Exent’s scoring (5.0★).
73.3% of price targets were reached over 7 years, versus 52.4% for the average analyst.
Median time to reach a target: 92 days; 77.6% of calls were up 12 months later.
Most‑covered stocks: KTOS, TATT, VSEC, MRCY.

In this article

Michael Ciarmoli’s track record at a glance
How fast price targets were reached
Stocks Michael Ciarmoli covers most
Recent ratings (shown with a 30-day delay)
How Exent scores analysts

Michael Ciarmoli’s track record at a glance

Michael Ciarmoli of Guggenheim ranks #106 of the 1,000 analysts Exent scores, with a 5.0★ rating and a focus on industrials. Over a 7‑year lookback, 73.3% of Michael’s price targets were reached, 20.9 points above the 52.4% average across all analysts.

Metric	Michael Ciarmoli	All analysts
Price‑target hit rate	73.3%	52.4%
Median days to hit target	92 days	91 days
Calls up after 12 months	77.6%	64.0%
Median 12‑month return of calls	+33.1%	+13.4%
Hit rate, last 2 years	80.3%	—
Average worst drop after a call	−15.7%	—
Ratings in the sample	1,366	—
Stocks covered	32	—

How fast price targets were reached

Time to reach the target	Michael Ciarmoli
Under 30 days	18.5%
30–90 days	30.2%
90–180 days	28.2%
Over 180 days	23.1%

Share of the targets that were reached, by how long they took. Targets are usually set for 12 months.

Stocks Michael Ciarmoli covers most

Stock	Ratings in the sample
KTOS	27
TATT	23
VSEC	20
MRCY	19
RDW	19
LHX	19
HWM	18
DCO	18

In the past year Michael’s ratings were 78% Buy, 22% Hold and 0% Sell.

Recent ratings (shown with a 30-day delay)

Date	Stock	Action	Rating	Price target
Sep 14, 2026	HEI	Initiated Coverage: Hold	Hold	$0.00
Sep 14, 2026	CW	Initiated Coverage: Buy	Buy	$786.00
Sep 14, 2026	MOG.A	Initiated Coverage: Hold	Hold	$0.00
Sep 14, 2026	HWM	Initiated Coverage: Buy	Buy	$350.00
Sep 14, 2026	MRCY	Initiated Coverage: Buy	Buy	$115.00
Sep 14, 2026	KTOS	Initiated Coverage: Buy	Buy	$74.00
Sep 14, 2026	RDW	Initiated Coverage: Hold	Hold	$0.00
Sep 14, 2026	VSEC	Initiated Coverage: Hold	Hold	$0.00
Sep 14, 2026	YSS	Initiated Coverage: Hold	Hold	$0.00
Sep 14, 2026	TDG	Initiated Coverage: Hold	Hold	$0.00
Sep 14, 2026	BWXT	Initiated Coverage: Buy	Buy	$192.00
Sep 14, 2026	SARO	Initiated Coverage: Hold	Hold	$0.00

Sep 14, 2026
Stock
HEI
Action
Initiated Coverage: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$0.00
Sep 14, 2026
Stock
CW
Action
Initiated Coverage: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$786.00
Sep 14, 2026
Stock
MOG.A
Action
Initiated Coverage: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$0.00
Sep 14, 2026
Stock
HWM
Action
Initiated Coverage: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$350.00
Sep 14, 2026
Stock
MRCY
Action
Initiated Coverage: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$115.00
Sep 14, 2026
Stock
KTOS
Action
Initiated Coverage: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$74.00
Sep 14, 2026
Stock
RDW
Action
Initiated Coverage: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$0.00
Sep 14, 2026
Stock
VSEC
Action
Initiated Coverage: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$0.00
Sep 14, 2026
Stock
YSS
Action
Initiated Coverage: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$0.00
Sep 14, 2026
Stock
TDG
Action
Initiated Coverage: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$0.00
Sep 14, 2026
Stock
BWXT
Action
Initiated Coverage: Buy
Rating
Buy
Price target
$192.00
Sep 14, 2026
Stock
SARO
Action
Initiated Coverage: Hold
Rating
Hold
Price target
$0.00

Live ratings from Michael Ciarmoli and the other top‑ranked analysts, and the stocks where they agree, are in Exent Stocks Radar.

How Exent scores analysts

Exent replays every rating with a price target over a 7‑year lookback: was the target reached, how long it took, and what the stock returned 1, 3, 6 and 12 months after the call. The star rating and rank combine success rate, average return and the number of ratings, so a few lucky calls do not make a top analyst. Statistics as of Jun 24, 2026; ranking updated Oct 18, 2026. How accurate are analyst price targets overall?

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

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Exent Stocks Radar shows Michael Ciarmoli’s live ratings and those of the other top‑ranked analysts, without the 30‑day delay used on this page.
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Frequently asked questions

By Exent’s scoring Michael Ciarmoli ranks #106 of 1,000 with a 5.0★ rating. 73.3% of price targets were reached over a 7-year lookback (all analysts: 52.4%), and 77.6% of calls were up 12 months later. Past accuracy does not guarantee future accuracy.

Michael Ciarmoli’s success rate is 65.2% by the ranking source and 73.3% by Exent’s price-target hit-rate backtest, with a median of 92 days to reach a target.

Michael Ciarmoli (Guggenheim) covers 32 stocks, mostly in industrials. The most frequently rated are KTOS, TATT, VSEC, MRCY, RDW.

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DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.

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