StocksInsight

AEP Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

American Electric Power Company, Inc., utilities (market value $69.4 billion), a member of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 12

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

58% Buy ratings (was 55%)

Key takeaways

  • AEP returned +73.6% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +90.0% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.48 against 0.67 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −50.8% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 20.2% and beta 0.48.
  • 22 analysts rated it in the past year; 58% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • AEP beat earnings estimates in 8 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 2.7% on average, up or down, around each report.

What do the best‑ranked analysts on AEP say now? See it in Exent Gems →

Did AEP beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) returned +73.6% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 16.4 percentage points, or +11.7% a year against +13.7%.

PeriodAEPS&P 500AEP per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year+7.9%+15.7%+7.9%+15.7%Lagged
3 years+74.4%+85.0%+20.4%+22.8%Lagged
5 years+73.6%+90.0%+11.7%+13.7%Lagged
10 years+158.1%+312.9%+9.9%+15.2%Lagged
  • 1 year
    AEP
    +7.9%
    S&P 500
    +15.7%
    AEP per year
    +7.9%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.7%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 3 years
    AEP
    +74.4%
    S&P 500
    +85.0%
    AEP per year
    +20.4%
    S&P 500 per year
    +22.8%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 5 years
    AEP
    +73.6%
    S&P 500
    +90.0%
    AEP per year
    +11.7%
    S&P 500 per year
    +13.7%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 10 years
    AEP
    +158.1%
    S&P 500
    +312.9%
    AEP per year
    +9.9%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.2%
    Result
    Lagged

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

AEP is in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the lists show every member’s return against the index.

What Wall Street analysts say about AEP

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 22 analysts published 193 ratings on AEP. Their latest calls were 58% Buy, 42% Hold and 0% Sell. 10 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $137.47 (range $122.00–$153.00), +7.9% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
??????4.8★47.5%
??????4.8★60.4%
??????4.8★26.6%
??????4.8★38.7%
??????4.8★59.3%

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on AEP are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.6% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.

AEP returns by year vs the S&P 500

AEP beat the S&P 500 in 3 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

YearAEPS&P 500Difference
2026 (to Sep 30, 2026)+4.5%+12.7%−8.2%
2025+29.4%+17.7%+11.7%
2024+18.2%+24.9%−6.7%
2023−11.0%+26.2%−37.2%
2022+10.4%−18.2%+28.6%
2021+10.7%+28.7%−18.0%
2020−9.0%+18.3%−27.3%
2019+30.5%+31.2%−0.7%
2018+5.4%−4.6%+10.0%
2017+19.9%+21.7%−1.8%

AEP risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, AEP had a Sharpe ratio of 0.48 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 19.6% and its beta 0.48: it tended to move about 0.5× as much as the market.

MetricAEPS&P 500
Annual return+11.7%+13.7%
Volatility (annualized)19.6%15.7%
Sharpe ratio0.480.67
Sortino ratio0.761.08
Max drawdown (month-end)−22.8%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.481.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How AEP behaved in past crashes

AEP’s deepest fall in the crises below was −50.8% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisAEPS&P 500Loss on $100,000
Global financial crisis (2007–09)−50.8%−56.5%−$50,760
2018 trade-war selloff−8.5%−20.2%−$8,470
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−32.4%−34.1%−$32,370
2022 inflation bear market−22.3%−25.4%−$22,290
2025 tariff selloff−7.3%−19.0%−$7,310
WindowAEP max drawdown
Last 1 year−14.8%
Last 3 years−14.8%
Last 5 years−29.6%
Last 10 years−32.9%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with AEP, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, AEP’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.38, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.21, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.47 and with gold (GLD) 0.28.

Adding a 5% AEP position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.3%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
NOW−0.27DUK0.83
CRWD−0.26SO0.74
PANW−0.19WELL0.69
CRM−0.19KO0.60
SNOW−0.17NEE0.56

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

Latest AEP upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

No named analyst changed a rating or price target on AEP in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026 (calls are shown 30 days after publication). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get AEP right?

Of the 337 analyst price targets on AEP set from 2019 until a year ago, 67.4% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 1.2 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 63 days. The median target sat 8.9% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said AEP would be by now: a year ago, 8 analysts had a price target on AEP, and the median of their latest targets was $130.00. On Oct 20, 2026 AEP closed at $127.22, 2.1% below it.

67.4%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
63 daysmedian time to reach a target
−2.1%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of AEP18+0.3%−3.1%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of AEP22−0.2%+0.4%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on AEP through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How AEP moves after earnings

AEP beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 8 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 2.7% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 7 of the 12 reports. In 2 of the 8 beats the stock still fell. The next report is expected on Oct 28, 2026.

8/12earnings beats
±2.7%average move per report
Oct 28, 2026next report (expected)
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Jul 30, 2026$1.36 vs $1.48+1.9%−1.2%
May 5, 2026$1.64 vs $1.57+5.3%−1.6%
Feb 12, 2026$1.19 vs $1.15+8.7%+6.3%
Oct 29, 2025$1.80 vs $1.81+5.2%+5.9%
Jul 30, 2025$1.43 vs $1.27+2.5%+3.6%
May 6, 2025$1.54 vs $1.40+5.8%0.0%
Feb 13, 2025$1.24 vs $1.25−4.3%−0.5%
Nov 6, 2024$1.85 vs $1.80−0.3%−4.1%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where AEP’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2025, AEP’s largest segment was Transmission And Distribution Companies, with 65.4% of $9.3 billion revenue (+3.7% on the year before).

SegmentRevenueShareGrowth
Transmission And Distribution Companies$6.1 billion65.4%+3.7%
Generation And Marketing$2.7 billion28.9%+38.7%
Product and Service, Other$526.0 million5.6%+8.9%

From AEP’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded AEP

As of Oct 20, 2026, 15 members of Congress had disclosed 34 trades in AEP (16 buys and 18 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Aug 26, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Aug 26, 2026David TaylorBuy$1,001–$15,000
Jun 5, 2026David TaylorBuy$1,001–$15,000
Feb 26, 2026David TaylorSale$1,001–$15,000
Jan 16, 2026David TaylorBuy$1,001–$15,000
Nov 3, 2025David TaylorSale$1,001–$15,000
Oct 6, 2025Rick LarsenBuy$1,001–$15,000
Sep 22, 2025David TaylorBuy$1,001–$15,000
Mar 24, 2025George WhitesidesSale$15,001–$50,000
Mar 10, 2025David TaylorSale$1,001–$15,000
Dec 6, 2024Virginia FoxxBuy$1,001–$15,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades

One trade in AEP disclosed in the last 30 days is in Exent Radar.

Are AEP insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, AEP insiders made no open‑market purchases and 7 sales worth $2.2 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on May 26, 2016.

After the 4 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, AEP lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 7.5 percentage points over the next 12 months; none of them was followed by a beat (a small sample). Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

Q4 ’24
Q1 ’25
Q2 ’25
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
DateInsiderRoleValue
May 26, 2016McCullough Mark CExecutive Vice President$284,660
May 25, 2016McCullough Mark CExecutive Vice President$284,737
Feb 20, 2013Richard Oliver G IiiDirector$99,930
Nov 13, 2012Lin Sandra BeachDirector$41,557
Aug 5, 2011Cordes James FDirector$71,675

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of AEP is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 5.42% of AEP’s float was sold short: 29.5 million shares, or 6.3 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 4.16%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so AEP is more heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 20263.40%
  • May 29, 20265.93%
  • Jun 30, 20266.63%
  • Jul 31, 20265.78%
  • Aug 31, 20264.48%
  • Sep 30, 20265.42%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own AEP?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 2,035 institutions reported holding AEP in 13F filings, up 39 from the quarter before and up from 1,699 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 92.9% of AEP’s shares. In the quarter 1,063 institutions added to their positions and 598 cut them.

2,03513F holders
175new positions
127positions closed
92.9%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is AEP diluting shareholders?

AEP’s diluted share count rose 4.6% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 2.1% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

AEP did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.

−2.1%share count, 1 year
+4.6%share count, 5 years
0.0%stock pay as % of revenue
0.00%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from AEP’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

AEP financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, AEP’s Altman Z‑score was 0.90, in the distress zone (where 180 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 5 out of 9; 80% of scored stocks reach 5 or more.

0.90Altman Z‑score: distress zone
5/9Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What AEP talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Jul 30, 2026), AEP’s executives and analysts did not mention AI, against 1 on the call before (May 5, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was tariffs (6).

MentionsJul ’26May ’26Feb ’26Oct ’25
AI0121
AI agents0000
Data centers19139
Tariffs6674
China0000
Recession0000
  • AI
    Jul ’26
    0
    May ’26
    1
    Feb ’26
    2
    Oct ’25
    1
  • AI agents
    Jul ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Data centers
    Jul ’26
    1
    May ’26
    9
    Feb ’26
    13
    Oct ’25
    9
  • Tariffs
    Jul ’26
    6
    May ’26
    6
    Feb ’26
    7
    Oct ’25
    4
  • China
    Jul ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Recession
    Jul ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold AEP?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 57 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held AEP. Its largest weight is in XLU (State Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF), at 5.22% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of AEP
XLUState Street Utilities Select Sector SPDR ETF5.22%
FUTYFidelity MSCI Utilities Index ETF4.71%
VPUVanguard Utilities Index Fund ETF Shares4.67%
JXIiShares Global Utilities ETF3.19%
IGFiShares Global Infrastructure ETF1.94%
FDVVFidelity High Dividend ETF1.11%
VOEVanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund1.10%
DVYiShares Select Dividend ETF0.94%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

How much is AEP’s CEO paid?

William J. Fehrman, AEP’s President and Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $36.6 million for fiscal 2025, up 176.1% from $13.3 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 18, 2026. 80% of it came as stock and option awards, valued when they were granted rather than when they pay out. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so AEP’s CEO earned 2.1 times as much.

Pay componentAmountShare of total
Salary$1.5 million4.1%
Bonus$1.1 million3.1%
Stock and option awards$29.3 million80.2%
Incentive plan (cash)$4.3 million11.7%
Other$315,9730.9%
Other top executivesRoleTotal pay, 2025
Trevor I. MihalikExecutive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer$13.5 million
Douglas A. CannonPresident - AEP Transmission$6.7 million
Robert B. BerntsenExecutive Vice President, General Counsel, and Secretary$5.5 million
Alicia R. KnappPresident - Nuclear Development$4.4 million

Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500

The right benchmark for AEP

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For AEP that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other utilities stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
NEENextEra Energy, Inc.+8.7%26.9%
SOThe Southern Company+59.3%18.6%
CEGConstellation Energy Corporation—48.6%
DUKDuke Energy Corporation+40.4%18.0%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Check AEP with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average AEP price target is 7.9% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on AEP say now in Exent Gems.

  1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
  2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering AEP are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
  3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

No. AEP returned +158.1% (+9.9% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, AEP (American Electric Power Company, Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is also in the Nasdaq-100.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, AEP (American Electric Power Company, Inc.) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.

AEP fell −50.8% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

AEP fell −32.4% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

AEP fell −22.3% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, AEP’s Sharpe ratio was 0.48 and its Sortino ratio 0.76, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.

AEP’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 20.2%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.48.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with AEP over the last 60 months were NOW (−0.27), CRWD (−0.26), PANW (−0.19). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.47 and with gold (GLD) 0.28.

AEP beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 8 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. The stock moved 2.7% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Oct 28, 2026.

William J. Fehrman, AEP’s President and Chief Executive Officer, received $36.6 million in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $1.5 million salary and $29.3 million in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 18, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 15 members of Congress had disclosed 34 trades in AEP (16 buys and 18 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 5.42% of AEP’s float was sold short (29.5 million shares, 6.3 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 4.16%.

Yes. AEP’s diluted share count rose 4.6% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 2.1% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.0% of revenue.

What do the best‑ranked analysts say on AEP now?

Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on AEP are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.

See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access

Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.