StocksInsight

FAST Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

Fastenal Company, industrials (market value $60.0 billion), a member of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Nov 2

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

36% Buy ratings (was 38%)

Key takeaways

  • FAST returned +105.2% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.58 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −52.8% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 24.5% and beta 0.66.
  • 14 analysts rated it in the past year; 36% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • FAST beat earnings estimates in 7 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 5.6% on average, up or down, around each report.

What do the best‑ranked analysts on FAST say now? See it in Exent Gems →

Did FAST beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Fastenal Company (FAST) returned +105.2% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 29.3 percentage points, or +15.5% a year against +12.0%.

PeriodFASTS&P 500FAST per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year+28.9%+12.0%+28.9%+12.0%Beat
3 years+91.1%+87.4%+24.1%+23.3%Beat
5 years+105.2%+75.9%+15.5%+12.0%Beat
10 years+589.4%+316.3%+21.3%+15.3%Beat
  • 1 year
    FAST
    +28.9%
    S&P 500
    +12.0%
    FAST per year
    +28.9%
    S&P 500 per year
    +12.0%
    Result
    Beat
  • 3 years
    FAST
    +91.1%
    S&P 500
    +87.4%
    FAST per year
    +24.1%
    S&P 500 per year
    +23.3%
    Result
    Beat
  • 5 years
    FAST
    +105.2%
    S&P 500
    +75.9%
    FAST per year
    +15.5%
    S&P 500 per year
    +12.0%
    Result
    Beat
  • 10 years
    FAST
    +589.4%
    S&P 500
    +316.3%
    FAST per year
    +21.3%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.3%
    Result
    Beat

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

FAST is in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the lists show every member’s return against the index.

What Wall Street analysts say about FAST

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 14 analysts published 139 ratings on FAST. Their latest calls were 36% Buy, 43% Hold and 21% Sell. 7 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $52.25 (range $47.00–$60.00), −4.7% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
??????5.0★55.7%
??????4.9★62.5%
??????4.9★57.3%
Kenneth NewmanKeyBanc4.6★67.2%
Chris DankertD.A. Davidson4.6★52.2%

Other analysts covering FAST: Guy Hardwick

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on FAST are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.

FAST returns by year vs the S&P 500

FAST beat the S&P 500 in 5 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

YearFASTS&P 500Difference
2026 (to Oct 30, 2026)+32.2%+11.7%+20.5%
2025+14.0%+17.7%−3.7%
2024+13.5%+24.9%−11.4%
2023+41.3%+26.2%+15.1%
2022−24.3%−18.2%−6.1%
2021+34.0%+28.7%+5.3%
2020+36.6%+18.3%+18.3%
2019+45.1%+31.2%+13.9%
2018−1.7%−4.6%+2.9%
2017+19.7%+21.7%−2.0%

FAST risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, FAST had a Sharpe ratio of 0.58 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 23.0% and its beta 0.66: it tended to move about 0.7× as much as the market.

MetricFASTS&P 500
Annual return+15.5%+12.0%
Volatility (annualized)23.0%15.5%
Sharpe ratio0.580.58
Sortino ratio0.880.91
Max drawdown (month-end)−26.9%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.661.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How FAST behaved in past crashes

FAST’s deepest fall in the crises below was −52.8% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisFASTS&P 500Loss on $100,000
Global financial crisis (2007–09)−52.8%−56.5%−$52,810
2018 trade-war selloff−17.4%−20.2%−$17,400
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−27.8%−34.1%−$27,780
2022 inflation bear market−26.7%−25.4%−$26,720
2025 tariff selloff−11.0%−19.0%−$10,980
WindowFAST max drawdown
Last 1 year−11.6%
Last 3 years−21.9%
Last 5 years−30.7%
Last 10 years−31.9%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with FAST, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, FAST’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.44, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.32, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.33 and with gold (GLD) 0.16.

Adding a 5% FAST position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.2%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
CRWD−0.07CTAS0.59
GOOGL−0.03WM0.58
LLY−0.02HD0.58
AVGO−0.01LOW0.55
REGN−0.01CSX0.55

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

Latest FAST upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

DateRating and targetAnalyst
Sep 15Target raised
Sell
Target $51, was $47
Nigel Coe
Wolfe Research

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on FAST in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get FAST right?

Of the 170 analyst price targets on FAST set from 2019 until a year ago, 81.2% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 12.6 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 35 days. The median target sat 3.1% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said FAST would be by now: a year ago, 3 analysts had a price target on FAST, and the median of their latest targets was $43.00. On Oct 20, 2026 FAST closed at $51.63, 20.1% above it.

81.2%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
35 daysmedian time to reach a target
+20.1%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of FAST6+0.7%+2.2%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of FAST10−0.7%+0.9%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on FAST through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How FAST moves after earnings

FAST beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 7 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Oct 14, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 9 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 5.6% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 7 of the 12 reports. In 3 of the 7 beats the stock still fell.

7/12earnings beats
±5.6%average move per report
7/12reports followed by a rise
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Oct 14, 2026$0.35 vs $0.34+0.9%−2.0%
Jul 14, 2026$0.33 vs $0.33+2.1%−3.6%
Apr 13, 2026$0.30 vs $0.30+0.2%−9.3%
Jan 20, 2026$0.26 vs $0.26−0.5%+2.0%
Oct 13, 2025$0.29 vs $0.30+0.1%−6.6%
Jul 14, 2025$0.29 vs $0.28+0.3%+4.3%
Apr 11, 2025$0.26 vs $0.26+0.4%+7.2%
Jan 17, 2025$0.23 vs $0.48−1.0%+1.8%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where FAST’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), FAST’s largest reported region was the United States, with 83.2% of its $8.2 billion revenue. By region: United States 83.2%; Canada and Mexico 13.5%; Non-North America 3.3%.

By business, the largest segment was UNITED STATES, with 88.9% of $3.9 billion revenue (+4.0% on the year before).

  • United States83.2%
  • Canada and Mexico13.5%
  • Non-North America3.3%
SegmentRevenueShareGrowth
UNITED STATES$3.4 billion88.9%+4.0%
CANADA$223.3 million5.8%−6.4%
Other Countries$204.8 million5.3%+9.7%

From FAST’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2015 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded FAST

As of Oct 20, 2026, 11 members of Congress had disclosed 45 trades in FAST (19 buys and 26 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Jan 29, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Jan 29, 2026Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
Apr 9, 2025Josh GottheimerSale$1,001–$15,000
Mar 19, 2025Sheri BiggsSale$15,001–$50,000
Oct 14, 2024Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Sep 9, 2024Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
Jun 21, 2024Josh GottheimerSale$1,001–$15,000
Apr 5, 2024Josh GottheimerSale$1,001–$15,000
Jan 10, 2024Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Oct 31, 2023Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Oct 10, 2023Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades

One trade in FAST disclosed in the last 30 days is in Exent Radar.

Are FAST insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, FAST insiders made 4 open‑market purchases worth $161,436 by 4 insiders and 5 sales worth $4.5 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings.

After the 101 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, FAST beat the S&P 500 by an average of 4.4 percentage points over the next 12 months; 60% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

Q4 ’24
Q1 ’25
Q2 ’25
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
DateInsiderRoleValue
Nov 19, 2025Nielsen Sarah NDirector$39,600
Nov 17, 2025Johnson Daniel L.Director$40,440
Nov 13, 2025HSU Hsenghung SamDirector$40,580
Nov 12, 2025Eastman Stephen L.Director$40,816
Oct 16, 2025HSU Hsenghung SamDirector$42,450

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of FAST is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.02% of FAST’s float was sold short: 34.6 million shares, or 4.6 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 2.08%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so FAST is less heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 20262.14%
  • May 29, 20262.49%
  • Jun 30, 20262.70%
  • Jul 31, 20263.14%
  • Aug 31, 20263.03%
  • Sep 30, 20263.02%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own FAST?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,509 institutions reported holding FAST in 13F filings, up 37 from the quarter before and up from 1,362 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 89.2% of FAST’s shares. In the quarter 700 institutions added to their positions and 540 cut them.

1,50913F holders
136new positions
98positions closed
89.2%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is FAST diluting shareholders?

FAST’s diluted share count fell 0.1% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 0.2% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

Stock‑based compensation was $8.4 million in fiscal 2025, 0.1% of revenue. FAST did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.

+0.2%share count, 1 year
−0.1%share count, 5 years
0.1%stock pay as % of revenue
0.00%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from FAST’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

FAST financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, FAST’s Altman Z‑score was 30.45, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 6 out of 9; 62% of scored stocks reach 6 or more.

30.45Altman Z‑score: safe zone
6/9Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What FAST talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Oct 14, 2026), FAST’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 4 times, against 5 on the call before (Jul 14, 2026). After AI, the most mentioned topic was data centers (8).

MentionsOct ’26Jul ’26Apr ’26Jan ’26
AI4500
AI agents0000
Data centers8111
Tariffs33226
China0100
Recession0100
  • AI
    Oct ’26
    4
    Jul ’26
    5
    Apr ’26
    0
    Jan ’26
    0
  • AI agents
    Oct ’26
    0
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Jan ’26
    0
  • Data centers
    Oct ’26
    8
    Jul ’26
    1
    Apr ’26
    1
    Jan ’26
    1
  • Tariffs
    Oct ’26
    3
    Jul ’26
    3
    Apr ’26
    22
    Jan ’26
    6
  • China
    Oct ’26
    0
    Jul ’26
    1
    Apr ’26
    0
    Jan ’26
    0
  • Recession
    Oct ’26
    0
    Jul ’26
    1
    Apr ’26
    0
    Jan ’26
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold FAST?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 61 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held FAST. Its largest weight is in PAVE (Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF), at 3.61% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of FAST
PAVEGlobal X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF3.61%
SCHDSchwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF1.44%
IWPiShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF1.43%
VOTVanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund1.34%
XLIState Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF1.10%
SDYState Street SPDR S&P Dividend ETF0.98%
VISVanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF Shares0.86%
VOVanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares0.56%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

How much is FAST’s CEO paid?

Daniel L. Florness, FAST’s Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $4.2 million for fiscal 2025, up 146.7% from $1.7 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Feb 25, 2026. 21% of it came as stock and option awards, valued when they were granted rather than when they pay out. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so FAST’s CEO earned less than most.

Pay componentAmountShare of total
Salary$750,00017.9%
Stock and option awards$861,38720.6%
Incentive plan (cash)$2.6 million61.4%
Other$2,9410.1%
Other top executivesRoleTotal pay, 2025
Jeffery M. WattsPresident and Chief Sales Officer$3.1 million
Charles S. MillerSenior Executive Vice President - Sales$1.9 million
John L. SoderbergSenior Executive Vice President - Information Technology$1.6 million
Sheryl A. LisowskiExecutive Vice President - Chief Accounting Officer and Treasurer$1.5 million

Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500

The right benchmark for FAST

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For FAST that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other industrials stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
SPCXSpace Exploration Technologies Corp.——
GEGE Aerospace+374.0%31.1%
RTXRTX Corporation+150.3%23.8%
CATCaterpillar Inc.+231.6%32.4%
GEVGE Vernova Inc.——
UNPUnion Pacific Corporation+41.0%22.6%
DEDeere & Company+110.6%29.6%
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation+119.1%23.0%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Check FAST with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average FAST price target is 4.7% below the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on FAST say now in Exent Gems.

  1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
  2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering FAST are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
  3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

Yes. FAST returned +589.4% (+21.3% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, FAST (Fastenal Company) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is also in the Nasdaq-100.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, FAST (Fastenal Company) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.

FAST fell −52.8% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

FAST fell −27.8% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

FAST fell −26.7% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, FAST’s Sharpe ratio was 0.58 and its Sortino ratio 0.88, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.

FAST’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 24.5%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.66.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with FAST over the last 60 months were CRWD (−0.07), GOOGL (−0.03), LLY (−0.02). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.33 and with gold (GLD) 0.16.

FAST beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 7 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Oct 14, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 9 of 12. The stock moved 5.6% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.

Daniel L. Florness, FAST’s Chief Executive Officer, received $4.2 million in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $750,000 salary and $861,387 in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Feb 25, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 11 members of Congress had disclosed 45 trades in FAST (19 buys and 26 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.02% of FAST’s float was sold short (34.6 million shares, 4.6 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 2.08%.

No. FAST’s diluted share count fell 0.1% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 0.2% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.1% of revenue.

What do the best‑ranked analysts say on FAST now?

Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on FAST are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.

See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access

Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.