How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
Honeywell International Inc., industrials (market value $66.6 billion), a member of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on HON say now? See it in Exent Gems →
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Honeywell International Inc. (HON) returned −50.3% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 140.3 percentage points, or −13.1% a year against +13.7%.
| Period | HON | S&P 500 | HON per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −49.9% | +15.7% | −49.9% | +15.7% | Lagged |
| 3 years | −42.9% | +85.0% | −17.0% | +22.8% | Lagged |
| 5 years | −50.3% | +90.0% | −13.1% | +13.7% | Lagged |
| 10 years | +111.1% | +312.9% | +7.8% | +15.2% | Lagged |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
HON is in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the lists show every member’s return against the index.
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 27 analysts published 282 ratings on HON. Their latest calls were 54% Buy, 46% Hold and 0% Sell. 15 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $346.58 (range $230.00–$490.00), +61.4% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 70.8% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 57.4% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 61.8% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 61.2% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 71.5% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on HON are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.6% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
HON beat the S&P 500 in 5 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | HON | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | −45.9% | +12.7% | −58.6% |
| 2025 | −13.6% | +17.7% | −31.3% |
| 2024 | +7.7% | +24.9% | −17.2% |
| 2023 | −2.1% | +26.2% | −28.3% |
| 2022 | +2.8% | −18.2% | +21.0% |
| 2021 | +97.7% | +28.7% | +69.0% |
| 2020 | +22.8% | +18.3% | +4.5% |
| 2019 | +36.5% | +31.2% | +5.3% |
| 2018 | −7.1% | −4.6% | −2.5% |
| 2017 | +35.0% | +21.7% | +13.3% |
Over 5 years, HON had a Sharpe ratio of −0.32 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 33.2% and its beta 0.89: it tended to move about 0.9× as much as the market.
| Metric | HON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −13.1% | +13.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 33.2% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | −0.32 | 0.67 |
| Sortino ratio | −0.38 | 1.08 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −56.7% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.89 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
HON’s deepest fall in the crises below was −62.8% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | HON | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −62.8% | −56.5% | −$62,780 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −22.5% | −20.2% | −$22,540 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −42.6% | −34.1% | −$42,570 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −23.9% | −25.4% | −$23,910 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −15.3% | −19.0% | −$15,340 |
| Window | HON max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −20.9% |
| Last 3 years | −22.1% |
| Last 5 years | −27.2% |
| Last 10 years | −43.3% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, HON’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.42, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.27, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.13 and with gold (GLD) 0.29.
Adding a 5% HON position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.7%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| KLAC | −0.23 | ICE | 0.50 |
| ABBV | −0.20 | BLK | 0.47 |
| MRVL | −0.19 | ORCL | 0.47 |
| AMAT | −0.19 | CVX | 0.46 |
| MRNA | −0.15 | T | 0.46 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | Target cut Buy | Brett Linzey |
| Sep 21 | Target cut Hold | Varun Govindaraj |
| Sep 14 | Downgrade Hold | Scott Davis |
| Sep 1 | Target raised Hold | Brandon Knutson |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on HON in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Of the 507 analyst price targets on HON set from 2019 until a year ago, 59.8% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 8.8 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 67 days. The median target sat 11.8% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said HON would be by now: a year ago, 11 analysts had a price target on HON, and the median of their latest targets was $470.00. On Oct 20, 2026 HON closed at $213.23, 54.6% below it.
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of HON | 15 | −0.7% | −3.0% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of HON | 15 | −1.0% | +2.4% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on HON through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
HON beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 23, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 4.2% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 4 of the 12 reports. In 8 of the 12 beats the stock still fell.
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | $1.95 vs $1.83 | +3.2% | +4.4% |
| Apr 23, 2026 | $2.57 vs $1.83 | −1.7% | −3.1% |
| Jan 29, 2026 | $5.18 vs $5.08 | −2.0% | +5.0% |
| Oct 23, 2025 | $5.64 vs $4.88 | +2.5% | +4.6% |
| Jul 24, 2025 | $5.50 vs $5.32 | +2.9% | −6.3% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $5.02 vs $4.42 | +2.4% | +4.9% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $4.94 vs $4.64 | +2.6% | −7.6% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $5.16 vs $5.00 | −1.8% | −5.6% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), HON’s largest reported region was the United States, with 58.2% of its $37.4 billion revenue. By region: United States 58.2%; Europe 21.7%; Other International 20.2%.
By business, the largest segment was Aerospace, with 46.8% of $37.4 billion revenue (+13.3% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aerospace | $17.5 billion | 46.8% | +13.3% |
| Safety And Productivity Solutions | $9.4 billion | 25.1% | −6.5% |
| Home And Building Technologies | $7.4 billion | 19.7% | −10.8% |
| Energy and Sustainability Solutions | $3.1 billion | 8.4% | −51.2% |
From HON’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 46 members of Congress had disclosed 115 trades in HON (49 buys and 65 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Jul 10, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 2026 | Dan Newhouse | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 30, 2026 | Diana Harshbarger | Exchange | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 13, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Alan Armstrong | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Alan Armstrong | Sale | $50,001–$100,000 |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Maria Elvira Salazar | Buy | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Mark Warner | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 29, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Dec 29, 2025 | ??? | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 24, 2025 | Debbie Dingell | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. Locked names belong to the 10 members whose stock buys did best; who they are is in Exent Radar. See every member’s disclosed trades
3 trades in HON disclosed in the last 30 days are in Exent Radar.
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, HON insiders made no open‑market purchases and 11 sales worth $4.8 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Aug 7, 2019.
After the 1 insider purchase of $10,000 or more since 2012, HON lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 3.7 percentage points over the next 12 months; none of them was followed by a beat (a small sample). Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2019 | Kapur Vimal | President & CEO, HBT | $811 |
| Jul 2, 2019 | Kapur Vimal | President & CEO, HBT | $2,303 |
| Aug 15, 2013 | Gregg Judd A. | Director | $82,100 |
| Nov 15, 2011 | Burke Kevin | Director | $109,200 |
| Aug 26, 2011 | Pardo Jaime Chico /Fa | Director | $110,040 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.64% of HON’s float was sold short: 7.9 million shares, or 2.4 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 6.94%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so HON is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 2,237 institutions reported holding HON in 13F filings, down 658 from the quarter before and down from 2,792 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 83.3% of HON’s shares. In the quarter 250 institutions added to their positions and 1,919 cut them.
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
HON’s diluted share count fell 9.6% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 1.9% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $196.0 million in fiscal 2025, 0.5% of revenue. HON spent $3.8 billion buying back shares, a buyback yield of 5.52% of its market value; stock pay equaled 5.2% of the buybacks.
Weighted‑average diluted shares from HON’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, HON’s Altman Z‑score was 2.73, in the grey zone (where 149 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 5 out of 9; 80% of scored stocks reach 5 or more.
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
On its latest earnings call (Jul 23, 2026), HON’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 8 times, against 0 on the call before (Apr 23, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was data centers (11). Tariffs and recession did not come up.
| Mentions | Jul ’26 | Apr ’26 | Jan ’26 | Oct ’25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 8 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| AI agents | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Data centers | 11 | 9 | 4 | 6 |
| Tariffs | 0 | 0 | 7 | 6 |
| China | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| Recession | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 56 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held HON. Its largest weight is in DIA (State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust), at 2.40% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of HON |
|---|---|---|
| DIA | State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust | 2.40% |
| XLI | State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF | 1.25% |
| VIS | Vanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF Shares | 1.01% |
| COWZ | Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF | 0.98% |
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 0.64% |
| VOE | Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund | 0.57% |
| WTV | WisdomTree U.S. Value Fund | 0.42% |
| ESGU | iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF | 0.34% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
In federal fiscal year 2026 (October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026), US government agencies obligated $9.0 billion in contracts to Honeywell International Inc. and its units, according to USAspending.gov, down 4.0% from $9.4 billion the year before. That made it number 11 among all federal contractors by obligations that year.
| Fiscal year | Contract obligations |
|---|---|
| 2026 | $9.0 billion |
| 2025 | $9.4 billion |
| 2024 | $8.6 billion |
| 2023 | $7.8 billion |
| 2022 | $8.1 billion |
Contract obligations are what agencies committed in the year, not cash paid; every subsidiary and unit USAspending.gov lists under the parent company is rolled up into one total. Which companies get the most federal contracts?
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For HON that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Wall Street’s average HON price target is 61.4% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on HON say now in Exent Gems.
No. HON returned +111.1% (+7.8% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, HON (Honeywell International Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is also in the Nasdaq-100.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, HON (Honeywell International Inc.) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
HON fell −62.8% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
HON fell −42.6% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
HON fell −23.9% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, HON’s Sharpe ratio was −0.32 and its Sortino ratio −0.38, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.
HON’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 21.9%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.89.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with HON over the last 60 months were KLAC (−0.23), ABBV (−0.20), MRVL (−0.19). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.13 and with gold (GLD) 0.29.
HON beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 23, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. The stock moved 4.2% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 46 members of Congress had disclosed 115 trades in HON (49 buys and 65 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.64% of HON’s float was sold short (7.9 million shares, 2.4 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 6.94%.
No. HON’s diluted share count fell 9.6% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 1.9% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.5% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $3.8 billion.
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on HON are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.