StocksInsight

HON Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

Honeywell International Inc., industrials (market value $66.6 billion), a member of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 12

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

27 analysts covering (was 26)

Key takeaways

  • HON returned −50.3% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +90.0% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was −0.32 against 0.67 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −62.8% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 21.9% and beta 0.89.
  • 27 analysts rated it in the past year; 54% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • HON beat earnings estimates in 12 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 4.2% on average, up or down, around each report.

What do the best‑ranked analysts on HON say now? See it in Exent Gems →

Did HON beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, Honeywell International Inc. (HON) returned −50.3% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 140.3 percentage points, or −13.1% a year against +13.7%.

PeriodHONS&P 500HON per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year−49.9%+15.7%−49.9%+15.7%Lagged
3 years−42.9%+85.0%−17.0%+22.8%Lagged
5 years−50.3%+90.0%−13.1%+13.7%Lagged
10 years+111.1%+312.9%+7.8%+15.2%Lagged
  • 1 year
    HON
    −49.9%
    S&P 500
    +15.7%
    HON per year
    −49.9%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.7%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 3 years
    HON
    −42.9%
    S&P 500
    +85.0%
    HON per year
    −17.0%
    S&P 500 per year
    +22.8%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 5 years
    HON
    −50.3%
    S&P 500
    +90.0%
    HON per year
    −13.1%
    S&P 500 per year
    +13.7%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 10 years
    HON
    +111.1%
    S&P 500
    +312.9%
    HON per year
    +7.8%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.2%
    Result
    Lagged

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

HON is in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the lists show every member’s return against the index.

What Wall Street analysts say about HON

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 27 analysts published 282 ratings on HON. Their latest calls were 54% Buy, 46% Hold and 0% Sell. 15 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $346.58 (range $230.00–$490.00), +61.4% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
??????5.0★70.8%
??????4.9★57.4%
??????4.9★61.8%
??????4.9★61.2%
??????4.9★71.5%

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on HON are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.6% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.

HON returns by year vs the S&P 500

HON beat the S&P 500 in 5 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

YearHONS&P 500Difference
2026 (to Sep 30, 2026)−45.9%+12.7%−58.6%
2025−13.6%+17.7%−31.3%
2024+7.7%+24.9%−17.2%
2023−2.1%+26.2%−28.3%
2022+2.8%−18.2%+21.0%
2021+97.7%+28.7%+69.0%
2020+22.8%+18.3%+4.5%
2019+36.5%+31.2%+5.3%
2018−7.1%−4.6%−2.5%
2017+35.0%+21.7%+13.3%

HON risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, HON had a Sharpe ratio of −0.32 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 33.2% and its beta 0.89: it tended to move about 0.9× as much as the market.

MetricHONS&P 500
Annual return−13.1%+13.7%
Volatility (annualized)33.2%15.7%
Sharpe ratio−0.320.67
Sortino ratio−0.381.08
Max drawdown (month-end)−56.7%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.891.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How HON behaved in past crashes

HON’s deepest fall in the crises below was −62.8% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisHONS&P 500Loss on $100,000
Global financial crisis (2007–09)−62.8%−56.5%−$62,780
2018 trade-war selloff−22.5%−20.2%−$22,540
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−42.6%−34.1%−$42,570
2022 inflation bear market−23.9%−25.4%−$23,910
2025 tariff selloff−15.3%−19.0%−$15,340
WindowHON max drawdown
Last 1 year−20.9%
Last 3 years−22.1%
Last 5 years−27.2%
Last 10 years−43.3%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with HON, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, HON’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.42, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.27, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.13 and with gold (GLD) 0.29.

Adding a 5% HON position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.7%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
KLAC−0.23ICE0.50
ABBV−0.20BLK0.47
MRVL−0.19ORCL0.47
AMAT−0.19CVX0.46
MRNA−0.15T0.46

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

Latest HON upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

DateRating and targetAnalyst
Oct 15Target cut
Buy
Target $255, was $265
Brett Linzey
Mizuho Securities
Sep 21Target cut
Hold
Target $254, was $264
Varun Govindaraj
Bernstein
Sep 14Downgrade
Hold
Scott Davis
Melius Research
Sep 1Target raised
Hold
Target $250, was $245
Brandon Knutson‏
Morgan Stanley

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on HON in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get HON right?

Of the 507 analyst price targets on HON set from 2019 until a year ago, 59.8% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 8.8 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 67 days. The median target sat 11.8% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said HON would be by now: a year ago, 11 analysts had a price target on HON, and the median of their latest targets was $470.00. On Oct 20, 2026 HON closed at $213.23, 54.6% below it.

59.8%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
67 daysmedian time to reach a target
−54.6%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of HON15−0.7%−3.0%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of HON15−1.0%+2.4%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on HON through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How HON moves after earnings

HON beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 23, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 4.2% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 4 of the 12 reports. In 8 of the 12 beats the stock still fell.

12/12earnings beats
±4.2%average move per report
4/12reports followed by a rise
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Jul 23, 2026$1.95 vs $1.83+3.2%+4.4%
Apr 23, 2026$2.57 vs $1.83−1.7%−3.1%
Jan 29, 2026$5.18 vs $5.08−2.0%+5.0%
Oct 23, 2025$5.64 vs $4.88+2.5%+4.6%
Jul 24, 2025$5.50 vs $5.32+2.9%−6.3%
Apr 29, 2025$5.02 vs $4.42+2.4%+4.9%
Feb 6, 2025$4.94 vs $4.64+2.6%−7.6%
Oct 24, 2024$5.16 vs $5.00−1.8%−5.6%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where HON’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), HON’s largest reported region was the United States, with 58.2% of its $37.4 billion revenue. By region: United States 58.2%; Europe 21.7%; Other International 20.2%.

By business, the largest segment was Aerospace, with 46.8% of $37.4 billion revenue (+13.3% on the year before).

  • United States58.2%
  • Europe21.7%
  • Other International20.2%
SegmentRevenueShareGrowth
Aerospace$17.5 billion46.8%+13.3%
Safety And Productivity Solutions$9.4 billion25.1%−6.5%
Home And Building Technologies$7.4 billion19.7%−10.8%
Energy and Sustainability Solutions$3.1 billion8.4%−51.2%

From HON’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded HON

As of Oct 20, 2026, 46 members of Congress had disclosed 115 trades in HON (49 buys and 65 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Jul 10, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Jul 10, 2026Dan NewhouseBuy$1,001–$15,000
Jun 30, 2026Diana HarshbargerExchange$1,001–$15,000
Apr 13, 2026Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Mar 27, 2026Alan ArmstrongBuy$1,001–$15,000
Mar 24, 2026Alan ArmstrongSale$50,001–$100,000
Mar 24, 2026Maria Elvira SalazarBuy$15,001–$50,000
Mar 20, 2026Mark WarnerSale$1,001–$15,000
Jan 29, 2026Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
Dec 29, 2025???Buy$1,001–$15,000
Nov 24, 2025Debbie DingellSale$15,001–$50,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. Locked names belong to the 10 members whose stock buys did best; who they are is in Exent Radar. See every member’s disclosed trades

3 trades in HON disclosed in the last 30 days are in Exent Radar.

Are HON insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, HON insiders made no open‑market purchases and 11 sales worth $4.8 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Aug 7, 2019.

After the 1 insider purchase of $10,000 or more since 2012, HON lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 3.7 percentage points over the next 12 months; none of them was followed by a beat (a small sample). Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

Q4 ’23
Q1 ’24
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
Q4 ’26
DateInsiderRoleValue
Aug 7, 2019Kapur VimalPresident & CEO, HBT$811
Jul 2, 2019Kapur VimalPresident & CEO, HBT$2,303
Aug 15, 2013Gregg Judd A.Director$82,100
Nov 15, 2011Burke KevinDirector$109,200
Aug 26, 2011Pardo Jaime Chico /FaDirector$110,040

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of HON is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.64% of HON’s float was sold short: 7.9 million shares, or 2.4 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 6.94%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so HON is less heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 20264.22%
  • May 29, 20264.64%
  • Jun 30, 20263.90%
  • Jul 31, 20262.83%
  • Aug 31, 20262.17%
  • Sep 30, 20262.64%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own HON?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 2,237 institutions reported holding HON in 13F filings, down 658 from the quarter before and down from 2,792 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 83.3% of HON’s shares. In the quarter 250 institutions added to their positions and 1,919 cut them.

2,23713F holders
149new positions
782positions closed
83.3%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is HON diluting shareholders?

HON’s diluted share count fell 9.6% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 1.9% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

Stock‑based compensation was $196.0 million in fiscal 2025, 0.5% of revenue. HON spent $3.8 billion buying back shares, a buyback yield of 5.52% of its market value; stock pay equaled 5.2% of the buybacks.

−1.9%share count, 1 year
−9.6%share count, 5 years
0.5%stock pay as % of revenue
5.52%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from HON’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

HON financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, HON’s Altman Z‑score was 2.73, in the grey zone (where 149 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 5 out of 9; 80% of scored stocks reach 5 or more.

2.73Altman Z‑score: grey zone
5/9Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What HON talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Jul 23, 2026), HON’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 8 times, against 0 on the call before (Apr 23, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was data centers (11). Tariffs and recession did not come up.

MentionsJul ’26Apr ’26Jan ’26Oct ’25
AI8030
AI agents0010
Data centers11946
Tariffs0076
China3442
Recession0000
  • AI
    Jul ’26
    8
    Apr ’26
    0
    Jan ’26
    3
    Oct ’25
    0
  • AI agents
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Jan ’26
    1
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Data centers
    Jul ’26
    11
    Apr ’26
    9
    Jan ’26
    4
    Oct ’25
    6
  • Tariffs
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Jan ’26
    7
    Oct ’25
    6
  • China
    Jul ’26
    3
    Apr ’26
    4
    Jan ’26
    4
    Oct ’25
    2
  • Recession
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Jan ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold HON?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 56 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held HON. Its largest weight is in DIA (State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust), at 2.40% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of HON
DIAState Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust2.40%
XLIState Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF1.25%
VISVanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF Shares1.01%
COWZPacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF0.98%
QTUMDefiance Quantum ETF0.64%
VOEVanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund0.57%
WTVWisdomTree U.S. Value Fund0.42%
ESGUiShares ESG Aware MSCI USA ETF0.34%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

Does HON get federal contracts?

In federal fiscal year 2026 (October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026), US government agencies obligated $9.0 billion in contracts to Honeywell International Inc. and its units, according to USAspending.gov, down 4.0% from $9.4 billion the year before. That made it number 11 among all federal contractors by obligations that year.

Fiscal yearContract obligations
2026$9.0 billion
2025$9.4 billion
2024$8.6 billion
2023$7.8 billion
2022$8.1 billion

Contract obligations are what agencies committed in the year, not cash paid; every subsidiary and unit USAspending.gov lists under the parent company is rolled up into one total. Which companies get the most federal contracts?

The right benchmark for HON

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For HON that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other industrials stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
CATCaterpillar Inc.+359.4%31.8%
GEGE Aerospace+398.0%31.0%
RTXRTX Corporation+140.5%23.8%
GEVGE Vernova Inc.——
UNPUnion Pacific Corporation+54.7%22.6%
DEDeere & Company+112.8%29.8%
BAThe Boeing Company−15.4%36.6%
LMTLockheed Martin Corporation+66.6%23.0%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Check HON with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average HON price target is 61.4% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on HON say now in Exent Gems.

  1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
  2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering HON are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
  3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

No. HON returned +111.1% (+7.8% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, HON (Honeywell International Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is also in the Nasdaq-100.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, HON (Honeywell International Inc.) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.

HON fell −62.8% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

HON fell −42.6% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

HON fell −23.9% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, HON’s Sharpe ratio was −0.32 and its Sortino ratio −0.38, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.

HON’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 21.9%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.89.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with HON over the last 60 months were KLAC (−0.23), ABBV (−0.20), MRVL (−0.19). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.13 and with gold (GLD) 0.29.

HON beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 23, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. The stock moved 4.2% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 46 members of Congress had disclosed 115 trades in HON (49 buys and 65 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.64% of HON’s float was sold short (7.9 million shares, 2.4 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 6.94%.

No. HON’s diluted share count fell 9.6% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 1.9% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.5% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $3.8 billion.

What do the best‑ranked analysts say on HON now?

Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on HON are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.

See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access

Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.