How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
Axon Enterprise, Inc., industrials (market value $24.6 billion), a member of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on AXON say now? See it in Exent Gems →
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) returned +137.7% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 61.8 percentage points, or +18.9% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | AXON | S&P 500 | AXON per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −41.6% | +12.0% | −41.6% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +109.2% | +87.4% | +27.9% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +137.7% | +75.9% | +18.9% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 10 years | +1,811% | +316.3% | +34.3% | +15.3% | Beat |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
AXON is in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq‑100 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the lists show every member’s return against the index.
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 20 analysts published 194 ratings on AXON. Their latest calls were 95% Buy, 5% Hold and 0% Sell. 12 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $612.56 (range $500.00–$715.00), +102.5% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 49.4% |
| George Notter | Wolfe Research | 4.9★ | 56.4% |
| William Power | Robert W. Baird | 4.9★ | 59.8% |
| Tim Long | Barclays | 4.9★ | 72.7% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.8★ | 55.6% |
Other analysts covering AXON: Andrew Sherman · Erik Suppiger · David Paige · James Fish · Meta Marshall
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on AXON are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
AXON beat the S&P 500 in 6 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | AXON | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | −24.7% | +11.7% | −36.4% |
| 2025 | −4.4% | +17.7% | −22.1% |
| 2024 | +130.1% | +24.9% | +105.2% |
| 2023 | +55.7% | +26.2% | +29.5% |
| 2022 | +5.7% | −18.2% | +23.9% |
| 2021 | +28.1% | +28.7% | −0.6% |
| 2020 | +67.2% | +18.3% | +48.9% |
| 2019 | +67.5% | +31.2% | +36.3% |
| 2018 | +65.1% | −4.6% | +69.7% |
| 2017 | +9.3% | +21.7% | −12.4% |
Over 5 years, AXON had a Sharpe ratio of 0.51 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 49.4% and its beta 1.47: it tended to move about 1.5× as much as the market.
| Metric | AXON | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +18.9% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 49.4% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.91 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −51.5% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.47 | 1.00 |
AXON’s deepest fall in the crises below was −85.8% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | AXON | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −85.8% | −56.5% | −$85,750 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −41.9% | −20.2% | −$41,930 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −40.8% | −34.1% | −$40,820 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −44.8% | −25.4% | −$44,810 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −16.3% | −19.0% | −$16,310 |
| Window | AXON max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −53.2% |
| Last 3 years | −65.3% |
| Last 5 years | −65.3% |
| Last 10 years | −58.5% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, AXON’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.46, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.40, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.33 and with gold (GLD) 0.06.
Adding a 5% AXON position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 16.0%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| PFE | −0.20 | GE | 0.59 |
| REGN | −0.08 | DIS | 0.53 |
| JNJ | −0.07 | IBKR | 0.52 |
| AMGN | −0.06 | SYK | 0.50 |
| XOM | −0.06 | EMR | 0.50 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 6 | Target cut Buy | Andrew Sherman |
| Nov 6 | Target cut Buy | Meta Marshall |
| Nov 6 | Target cut Buy | Tim Long |
| Nov 6 | Target cut Buy | William Power |
| Nov 6 | Target cut Buy | James Fish |
| Nov 6 | Target cut Buy | David Paige |
| Oct 26 | Target cut Buy | Andrew Sherman |
| Oct 20 | Target cut Buy | James Fish |
| Oct 12 | Target cut Hold | Andrew Spinola |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on AXON in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Of the 313 analyst price targets on AXON set from 2019 until a year ago, 86.3% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 17.7 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 53 days. The median target sat 17.3% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said AXON would be by now: a year ago, 13 analysts had a price target on AXON, and the median of their latest targets was $805.00. On Oct 20, 2026 AXON closed at $392.42, 51.3% below it.
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of AXON | 9 | +8.2% | +5.2% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of AXON | 7 | −11.5% | −1.0% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on AXON through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
AXON beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 11 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 5, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 15.1% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 9 of the 12 reports. In 2 of the 11 beats the stock still fell.
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $1.88 vs $1.84 | +3.2% | −14.0% |
| May 6, 2026 | $1.61 vs $1.60 | +3.4% | +12.2% |
| Feb 24, 2026 | $2.15 vs $1.60 | +5.4% | +22.8% |
| Nov 4, 2025 | $1.17 vs $1.52 | +0.8% | −11.7% |
| Aug 4, 2025 | $2.12 vs $1.45 | +4.3% | +16.8% |
| May 7, 2025 | $1.41 vs $1.27 | +2.9% | +14.2% |
| Feb 25, 2025 | $2.08 vs $1.37 | +1.6% | +14.5% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | $1.45 vs $1.20 | +3.6% | +31.3% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), AXON’s largest reported region was the United States, with 82.9% of its $2.8 billion revenue. By region: United States 82.9%; Non-US 17.1%.
By business, the largest segment was Software And Sensors Segment, with 43.3% of $2.8 billion revenue.
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Software And Sensors Segment | $1.2 billion | 43.3% | — |
| TASER X2 | $913.9 million | 32.9% | — |
| Axon Body | $397.0 million | 14.3% | — |
| Platform Solutions | $265.9 million | 9.6% | — |
From AXON’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 5 members of Congress had disclosed 10 trades in AXON (5 buys and 5 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Mar 27, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | Alan Armstrong | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 12, 2025 | Jefferson Shreve | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Mar 5, 2025 | Jefferson Shreve | Buy | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Jan 13, 2025 | Rob Bresnahan | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Markwayne Mullin | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Markwayne Mullin | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Jan 4, 2024 | Markwayne Mullin | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 4, 2024 | Markwayne Mullin | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Greg Stanton | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 26, 2023 | Greg Stanton | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, AXON insiders made no open‑market purchases and 225 sales, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Aug 13, 2025.
After the 21 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, AXON beat the S&P 500 by an average of 42.4 percentage points over the next 12 months; 91% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2025 | Partovi Hadi | Director | $1.0 million |
| Jun 23, 2023 | Partovi Hadi | Director | $1.7 million |
| May 25, 2023 | Partovi Hadi | Director | $1.9 million |
| May 17, 2023 | Bagley Brittany | Cfo & Cbo | $50,000 |
| May 17, 2023 | Partovi Hadi | Director | $1.3 million |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 5.10% of AXON’s float was sold short: 3.9 million shares, or 3.5 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 2.34%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so AXON is more heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,192 institutions reported holding AXON in 13F filings, up 83 from the quarter before and down from 1,253 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 91.1% of AXON’s shares. In the quarter 681 institutions added to their positions and 330 cut them.
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
AXON’s diluted share count rose 61.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 27.3% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $634.2 million in fiscal 2025, 22.8% of revenue. AXON did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.
Weighted‑average diluted shares from AXON’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, AXON’s Altman Z‑score was 5.97, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 5 out of 9; 80% of scored stocks reach 5 or more.
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
On its latest earnings call (Aug 5, 2026), AXON’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 30 times, against 40 on the call before (May 6, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was data centers (4).
| Mentions | Aug ’26 | May ’26 | Feb ’26 | Nov ’25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 30 | 40 | 73 | 22 |
| AI agents | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Data centers | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Tariffs | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| China | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Recession | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 54 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held AXON. Its largest weight is in XAR (State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF), at 2.44% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of AXON |
|---|---|---|
| XAR | State Street SPDR S&P Aerospace & Defense ETF | 2.44% |
| ITA | iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF | 2.44% |
| PPA | Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF | 1.88% |
| IWP | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF | 0.88% |
| VOT | Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund | 0.77% |
| XLI | State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF | 0.59% |
| VIS | Vanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.49% |
| VO | Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.32% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
Patrick Smith, AXON’s Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $40,001 for fiscal 2025, down 100.0% from $164.5 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Apr 16, 2026. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so AXON’s CEO earned less than most.
| Pay component | Amount | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Salary | $31,201 | 78.0% |
| Other | $8,800 | 22.0% |
| Other top executives | Role | Total pay, 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Cameron Brooks | Chief Revenue Officer | $1.3 million |
| Brittany Bagley | Chief Operating Officer and Chief Financial Officer | $1.3 million |
| Jeffrey Kunins | Chief Product Officer and Chief Technology Officer | $864,211 |
| Joshua Isner | President | $728,341 |
Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For AXON that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Wall Street’s average AXON price target is 102.5% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on AXON say now in Exent Gems.
Yes. AXON returned +1,811% (+34.3% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, AXON (Axon Enterprise, Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is also in the Nasdaq-100.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, AXON (Axon Enterprise, Inc.) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
AXON fell −85.8% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
AXON fell −40.8% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
AXON fell −44.8% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, AXON’s Sharpe ratio was 0.51 and its Sortino ratio 0.91, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
AXON’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 51.0%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.47.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with AXON over the last 60 months were PFE (−0.20), REGN (−0.08), JNJ (−0.07). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.33 and with gold (GLD) 0.06.
AXON beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 11 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 5, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. The stock moved 15.1% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Patrick Smith, AXON’s Chief Executive Officer, received $40,001 in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $31,201 salary and $0 in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Apr 16, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 5 members of Congress had disclosed 10 trades in AXON (5 buys and 5 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 5.10% of AXON’s float was sold short (3.9 million shares, 3.5 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 2.34%.
Yes. AXON’s diluted share count rose 61.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 27.3% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 22.8% of revenue.
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on AXON are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.