How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
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ALAB Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Astera Labs, Inc., technology (market value $50.3 billion), a Nasdaq‑100 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
Key takeaways
- ALAB returned +81.8% over the 1 year to Sep 30, 2026 versus +15.7% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 1-year Sharpe ratio was 0.93 against 0.90 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −41.1% in the 2025 tariff selloff (S&P 500: −19.0%).
- 23 analysts rated it in the past year; 70% of their latest calls were Buy.
In this article
Did ALAB beat the S&P 500?
Over the 1 year to Sep 30, 2026, Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB) returned +81.8% including dividends, versus +15.7% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 66.1 percentage points, or +81.8% a year against +15.7%.
| Period | ALAB | S&P 500 | ALAB per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +81.8% | +15.7% | +81.8% | +15.7% | Beat |
| Period | 1 year |
|---|---|
| ALAB | +81.8% |
| S&P 500 | +15.7% |
| ALAB per year | +81.8% |
| S&P 500 per year | +15.7% |
| Result | Beat |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
ALAB is in the Nasdaq‑100 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.
ALAB returns by year vs the S&P 500
ALAB beat the S&P 500 in 1 of the 1 full calendar years shown.
| Year | ALAB | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | +114.0% | +12.7% | +101.3% |
| 2025 | +25.6% | +17.7% | +7.9% |
How ALAB behaved in past crashes
ALAB’s deepest fall in the crises below was −41.1% in the 2025 tariff selloff, against −19.0% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | ALAB | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 tariff selloff | −41.1% | −19.0% | −$41,110 |
| Window | ALAB max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −48.3% |
| Last 3 years | — |
| Last 5 years | — |
| Last 10 years | — |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with ALAB, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 30 months of monthly returns, ALAB’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.42, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.59, with long Treasuries (TLT) −0.27 and with gold (GLD) −0.40.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| T | −0.57 | DDOG | 0.61 |
| REGN | −0.56 | CDNS | 0.60 |
| XOM | −0.56 | MRVL | 0.57 |
| HCA | −0.50 | AMD | 0.54 |
| AMGN | −0.49 | DELL | 0.53 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
What Wall Street analysts say about ALAB
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 23 analysts published 234 ratings on ALAB. Their latest calls were 70% Buy, 30% Hold and 0% Sell. 20 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $206.75 (range $155.00–$250.00), −28.7% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0★ | 70.1% | ||
| 5.0★ | 64.1% | ||
| 5.0★ | 64.9% | ||
| 5.0★ | 58.2% | ||
| 5.0★ | 57.4% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on ALAB are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
Latest ALAB upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9 | Downgrade Buy → Hold | Gus Richard |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on ALAB in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
The right benchmark for ALAB
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For ALAB that is QQQ (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other technology stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | +1,004% | 51.1% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | +141.1% | 27.8% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | +89.6% | 26.5% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | +688.5% | 44.0% |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | +1,437% | 51.9% |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | +494.5% | 56.7% |
| INTC | Intel Corporation | +145.0% | 51.2% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | +678.1% | 64.4% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
See what ALAB does to your own portfolio
- Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
- Exent replays your whole portfolio, ALAB included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
- It finds holdings that move together with ALAB and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
- Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, ALAB (Astera Labs, Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500. It is in the Nasdaq-100.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, ALAB (Astera Labs, Inc.) is one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
Over the 1 year to Sep 30, 2026, ALAB’s Sharpe ratio was 0.93 and its Sortino ratio 2.51, versus 0.90 and 2.13 for the S&P 500.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with ALAB over the last 30 months were T (−0.57), REGN (−0.56), XOM (−0.56). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was −0.27 and with gold (GLD) −0.40.
What would ALAB do to your portfolio?
Exent replays your whole portfolio through the same crashes, finds holdings that move together and compares you with a risk‑matched benchmark. Upload a screenshot; results in about a minute.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.