How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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OKTA Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Okta, Inc., technology (market value $31.7 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
What changed since Nov 2
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
+2 new ratings
Key takeaways
- OKTA returned −15.8% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.15 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −77.2% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
- Five‑year volatility was 57.3% and beta 0.74.
- 40 analysts rated it in the past year; 80% of their latest calls were Buy.
- OKTA beat earnings estimates in 12 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 15.6% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on OKTA say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did OKTA beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about OKTA
- OKTA returns by year vs the S&P 500
- OKTA risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How OKTA behaved in past crashes
- What moves with OKTA, and what doesn’t
- Latest OKTA upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get OKTA right?
- How OKTA moves after earnings
- Where OKTA’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded OKTA
- Are OKTA insiders buying or selling?
- How much of OKTA is sold short?
- How many institutions own OKTA?
- Is OKTA diluting shareholders?
- OKTA financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold OKTA?
- The right benchmark for OKTA
- Other technology stocks
- Data and methodology
Did OKTA beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Okta, Inc. (OKTA) returned −15.8% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 91.7 percentage points, or −3.4% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | OKTA | S&P 500 | OKTA per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +127.5% | +12.0% | +127.5% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +208.9% | +87.4% | +45.6% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | −15.8% | +75.9% | −3.4% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| Period | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| OKTA | +127.5% | +208.9% | −15.8% |
| S&P 500 | +12.0% | +87.4% | +75.9% |
| OKTA per year | +127.5% | +45.6% | −3.4% |
| S&P 500 per year | +12.0% | +23.3% | +12.0% |
| Result | Beat | Beat | Lagged |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about OKTA
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 40 analysts published 519 ratings on OKTA. Their latest calls were 80% Buy, 18% Hold and 3% Sell. 34 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $201.76 (range $60.00–$245.00), +13.1% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 62.5% |
| Jonathan Ruykhaver | Cantor Fitzgerald | 5.0★ | 57.3% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 58.1% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 67.1% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 49.4% |
Other analysts covering OKTA: Imtiaz Koujalgi · Joseph Gallo · Eric Heath · Peter Weed · Shaul Eyal · Peter Levine
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on OKTA are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
OKTA returns by year vs the S&P 500
OKTA beat the S&P 500 in 4 of the 8 full calendar years shown.
| Year | OKTA | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +140.8% | +11.7% | +129.1% |
| 2025 | +9.7% | +17.7% | −8.0% |
| 2024 | −13.0% | +24.9% | −37.9% |
| 2023 | +32.5% | +26.2% | +6.3% |
| 2022 | −69.5% | −18.2% | −51.3% |
| 2021 | −11.8% | +28.7% | −40.5% |
| 2020 | +120.4% | +18.3% | +102.1% |
| 2019 | +80.8% | +31.2% | +49.6% |
| 2018 | +149.1% | −4.6% | +153.7% |
OKTA risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, OKTA had a Sharpe ratio of 0.15 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 59.1% and its beta 0.74: it tended to move about 0.7× as much as the market.
| Metric | OKTA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −3.4% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 59.1% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.15 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.26 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −78.4% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.74 | 1.00 |
How OKTA behaved in past crashes
OKTA’s deepest fall in the crises below was −77.2% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | OKTA | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −33.4% | −20.2% | −$33,420 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −31.1% | −34.1% | −$31,130 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −77.2% | −25.4% | −$77,200 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −21.8% | −19.0% | −$21,830 |
| Window | OKTA max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −40.4% |
| Last 3 years | −50.6% |
| Last 5 years | −83.4% |
| Last 10 years | −84.6% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with OKTA, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, OKTA’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.19, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.31, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.20 and with gold (GLD) 0.01.
Adding a 5% OKTA position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.5%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| PEP | −0.26 | CRWD | 0.55 |
| WMB | −0.25 | SNOW | 0.54 |
| PGR | −0.22 | NOW | 0.44 |
| REGN | −0.21 | NET | 0.43 |
| WMT | −0.19 | FTNT | 0.42 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest OKTA upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15 | Target raised Hold | Fatima Boolani |
| Oct 9 | Target raised Buy | Keith Bachman |
| Sep 29 | Target raised Buy | Meta Marshall |
| Sep 28 | Target raised Buy | Patrick Colville |
| Sep 28 | Target raised Buy | Rustam Kanga |
| Sep 25 | Target raised Hold | Fatima Boolani |
| Sep 25 | Target raised Buy | Keith Bachman |
| Sep 25 | Target raised Buy | Todd Weller CFA |
| Sep 24 | Target raised Hold | Shaul Eyal |
| Sep 24 | Target raised Buy | Eric Heath |
| Sep 24 | Target raised Buy | John Difucci |
| Sep 24 | Target raised Buy | Joseph Gallo |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on OKTA in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get OKTA right?
Of the 737 analyst price targets on OKTA set from 2019 until a year ago, 70.8% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 2.2 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 69 days. The median target sat 19.2% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said OKTA would be by now: a year ago, 6 analysts had a price target on OKTA, and the median of their latest targets was $115.00. On Oct 20, 2026 OKTA closed at $194.02, 68.7% above it.
70.8%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
69 daysmedian time to reach a target
+68.7%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of OKTA | 33 | +7.2% | +13.7% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of OKTA | 18 | −4.1% | +6.3% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on OKTA through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How OKTA moves after earnings
OKTA beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 26, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 15.6% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 8 of the 12 reports. In 4 of the 12 beats the stock still fell.
12/12earnings beats
±15.6%average move per report
8/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | $1.05 vs $0.96 | +1.5% | +32.4% |
| May 28, 2026 | $0.91 vs $0.85 | +1.7% | +37.7% |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.90 vs $0.85 | +1.5% | +9.8% |
| Dec 2, 2025 | $0.82 vs $0.76 | +1.5% | +7.1% |
| Aug 26, 2025 | $0.91 vs $0.85 | +2.2% | +1.8% |
| May 27, 2025 | $0.86 vs $0.77 | +1.1% | −14.9% |
| Mar 3, 2025 | $0.78 vs $0.74 | +2.0% | +19.7% |
| Dec 3, 2024 | $0.67 vs $0.58 | +2.3% | +6.5% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where OKTA’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2026 (the year to Jan 31, 2026), OKTA’s largest reported region was the United States, with 79.5% of its $2.9 billion revenue. By region: United States 79.5%; Non-US 20.5%.
By business, the largest segment was Subscription and Circulation, with 97.8% of $2.9 billion revenue (+11.7% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Subscription and Circulation | $2.9 billion | 97.8% | +11.7% |
| Technology Service | $64.0 million | 2.2% | +18.5% |
From OKTA’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2026 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded OKTA
As of Oct 20, 2026, 6 members of Congress had disclosed 23 trades in OKTA (13 buys and 10 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Sep 12, 2025.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jul 10, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 17, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 29, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 29, 2025 | Rob Bresnahan | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 9, 2025 | Rob Bresnahan | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 8, 2025 | Rob Bresnahan | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 4, 2025 | Rob Bresnahan | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Ashley Moody | Sale | $50,001–$100,000 |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
2 trades in OKTA disclosed in the last 30 days are in Exent Radar.
Are OKTA insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, OKTA insiders made 1 open‑market purchase worth $79,711 by 1 insider and 78 sales worth $58.2 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2026 | Schellhase David | Director | $79,711 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of OKTA is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.77% of OKTA’s float was sold short: 7.9 million shares, or 1.9 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 3.83%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so OKTA is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own OKTA?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 892 institutions reported holding OKTA in 13F filings, up 109 from the quarter before and up from 821 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 91.9% of OKTA’s shares. In the quarter 471 institutions added to their positions and 284 cut them.
89213F holders
200new positions
101positions closed
91.9%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is OKTA diluting shareholders?
OKTA’s diluted share count rose 40.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2026 and rose 2.4% in fiscal 2026 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $544,000 in fiscal 2026, 0.0% of revenue. OKTA spent $73.0 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 0.26% of its market value; stock pay equaled 0.7% of the buybacks.
+2.4%share count, 1 year
+40.9%share count, 5 years
0.0%stock pay as % of revenue
0.26%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from OKTA’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
OKTA financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, OKTA’s Altman Z‑score was 9.03, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 8 out of 9; 20% of scored stocks reach 8 or more.
9.03Altman Z‑score: safe zone
8/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold OKTA?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 41 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held OKTA. Its largest weight is in BUG (Global X Cybersecurity ETF), at 10.26% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of OKTA |
|---|---|---|
| BUG | Global X Cybersecurity ETF | 10.26% |
| IJK | iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF | 1.58% |
| FDG | American Century Focused Dynamic Growth ETF | 1.33% |
| FDN | First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund | 1.08% |
| VBK | Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund ETF Shares | 1.00% |
| SPMD | State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF | 0.93% |
| MDY | State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust | 0.92% |
| SCHM | Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF | 0.66% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for OKTA
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For OKTA that is MDY. Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other technology stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | +135.9% | 28.0% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | +704.3% | 51.1% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | +64.0% | 26.5% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | +570.0% | 44.7% |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | +1,211% | 51.9% |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | +319.9% | 58.3% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | +611.4% | 64.4% |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | +45.7% | 40.4% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check OKTA with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average OKTA price target is 13.1% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on OKTA say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering OKTA are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
No. OKTA returned −15.8% (−3.4% a year) over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +75.9% (+12.0% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, OKTA (Okta, Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, OKTA (Okta, Inc.) is not one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
OKTA fell −31.1% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
OKTA fell −77.2% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, OKTA’s Sharpe ratio was 0.15 and its Sortino ratio 0.26, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
OKTA’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 57.3%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.74.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with OKTA over the last 60 months were PEP (−0.26), WMB (−0.25), PGR (−0.22). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.20 and with gold (GLD) 0.01.
OKTA beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 26, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. The stock moved 15.6% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 6 members of Congress had disclosed 23 trades in OKTA (13 buys and 10 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.77% of OKTA’s float was sold short (7.9 million shares, 1.9 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 3.83%.
Yes. OKTA’s diluted share count rose 40.9% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2026 and rose 2.4% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.0% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $73.0 million.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on OKTA now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on OKTA are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.