How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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TRV Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
The Travelers Companies, Inc., financial services (market value $80.4 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
What changed since Oct 12
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
+1 new rating23% Buy ratings (was 24%)23 analysts covering (was 22)12 4★+ analysts covering (was 10)
Key takeaways
- TRV returned +156.0% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +89.1% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.85 against 0.69 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −44.7% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
- Five‑year volatility was 21.8% and beta 0.43.
- 23 analysts rated it in the past year; 23% of their latest calls were Buy.
In this article
- Did TRV beat the S&P 500?
- TRV returns by year vs the S&P 500
- TRV risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How TRV behaved in past crashes
- What moves with TRV, and what doesn’t
- What Wall Street analysts say about TRV
- Latest TRV upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- The right benchmark for TRV
- Other financial services stocks
- Data and methodology
Did TRV beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) returned +156.0% including dividends, versus +89.1% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 66.9 percentage points, or +20.7% a year against +13.6%.
| Period | TRV | S&P 500 | TRV per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +28.7% | +15.1% | +28.7% | +15.1% | Beat |
| 3 years | +128.0% | +84.1% | +31.6% | +22.6% | Beat |
| 5 years | +156.0% | +89.1% | +20.7% | +13.6% | Beat |
| 10 years | +282.3% | +310.7% | +14.4% | +15.2% | Lagged |
- 1 year
- TRV
- +28.7%
- S&P 500
- +15.1%
- TRV per year
- +28.7%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.1%
- Result
- Beat
- 3 years
- TRV
- +128.0%
- S&P 500
- +84.1%
- TRV per year
- +31.6%
- S&P 500 per year
- +22.6%
- Result
- Beat
- 5 years
- TRV
- +156.0%
- S&P 500
- +89.1%
- TRV per year
- +20.7%
- S&P 500 per year
- +13.6%
- Result
- Beat
- 10 years
- TRV
- +282.3%
- S&P 500
- +310.7%
- TRV per year
- +14.4%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.2%
- Result
- Lagged
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
TRV returns by year vs the S&P 500
TRV beat the S&P 500 in 3 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | TRV | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | +23.4% | +12.1% | +11.3% |
| 2025 | +22.4% | +17.7% | +4.7% |
| 2024 | +28.8% | +24.9% | +3.9% |
| 2023 | +3.9% | +26.2% | −22.3% |
| 2022 | +22.4% | −18.2% | +40.6% |
| 2021 | +14.0% | +28.7% | −14.7% |
| 2020 | +5.3% | +18.3% | −13.0% |
| 2019 | +17.0% | +31.2% | −14.2% |
| 2018 | −9.6% | −4.6% | −5.0% |
| 2017 | +13.4% | +21.7% | −8.3% |
TRV risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, TRV had a Sharpe ratio of 0.85 against 0.69 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 21.0% and its beta 0.43: it tended to move about 0.4× as much as the market.
| Metric | TRV | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +20.7% | +13.6% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 21.0% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.85 | 0.69 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.54 | 1.10 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −15.2% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.43 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
How TRV behaved in past crashes
TRV’s deepest fall in the crises below was −44.7% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | TRV | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −44.7% | −56.5% | −$44,730 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −16.2% | −20.2% | −$16,220 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −39.6% | −34.1% | −$39,560 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −19.8% | −25.4% | −$19,790 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −11.8% | −19.0% | −$11,810 |
| Window | TRV max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −8.9% |
| Last 3 years | −12.5% |
| Last 5 years | −18.9% |
| Last 10 years | −47.2% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with TRV, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, TRV’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.32, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.03, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.16 and with gold (GLD) 0.06.
Adding a 5% TRV position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.3%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | −0.16 | BRK-B | 0.63 |
| QCOM | −0.15 | JPM | 0.61 |
| TSLA | −0.15 | PGR | 0.60 |
| SNPS | −0.13 | BAC | 0.59 |
| CDNS | −0.13 | V | 0.57 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
What Wall Street analysts say about TRV
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 23 analysts published 206 ratings on TRV. Their latest calls were 23% Buy, 50% Hold and 27% Sell. 12 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $303.23 (range $250.00–$340.00), −23.4% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0★ | 47.8% | ||
| 5.0★ | 53.8% | ||
| 5.0★ | 61.6% | ||
| 4.9★ | 46.4% | ||
| Gregory Peters | Raymond James | 4.9★ | 48.7% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on TRV are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
Latest TRV upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 7 | Target cut Hold | Yaron Kinar |
| Sep 21 | Target raised Hold | David Motemaden |
| Sep 15 | Target raised Hold | Yaron Kinar |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on TRV in the 5 weeks to Sep 21, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
The right benchmark for TRV
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For TRV that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other financial services stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | +82.4% | 17.1% |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | +128.0% | 24.4% |
| V | Visa Inc. | +67.2% | 22.7% |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | +63.1% | 23.9% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | +43.4% | 26.5% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | +125.4% | 28.6% |
| GS | The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | +166.4% | 28.6% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | +93.7% | 30.1% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
See what TRV does to your own portfolio
- Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
- Exent replays your whole portfolio, TRV included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
- It finds holdings that move together with TRV and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
- Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
No. TRV returned +282.3% (+14.4% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +310.7% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
TRV fell −44.7% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
TRV fell −39.6% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
TRV fell −19.8% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, TRV’s Sharpe ratio was 0.85 and its Sortino ratio 1.54, versus 0.69 and 1.10 for the S&P 500.
TRV’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 21.8%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.43.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with TRV over the last 60 months were AMD (−0.16), QCOM (−0.15), TSLA (−0.15). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.16 and with gold (GLD) 0.06.
What would TRV do to your portfolio?
Exent replays your whole portfolio through the same crashes, finds holdings that move together and compares you with a risk‑matched benchmark. Upload a screenshot; results in about a minute.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.