How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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KKR Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
KKR & Co. Inc., financial services (market value $78.1 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.
What changed since Oct 12
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
+1 new rating93% Buy ratings (was 94%)
Key takeaways
- KKR returned +56.1% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +90.0% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.33 against 0.67 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −45.5% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020) (S&P 500: −34.1%).
- Five‑year volatility was 39.2% and beta 1.83.
- 16 analysts rated it in the past year; 93% of their latest calls were Buy.
- KKR beat earnings estimates in 11 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 3.2% on average, up or down, around each report.
In this article
- Did KKR beat the S&P 500?
- KKR returns by year vs the S&P 500
- KKR risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How KKR behaved in past crashes
- What moves with KKR, and what doesn’t
- What Wall Street analysts say about KKR
- Latest KKR upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get KKR right?
- How KKR moves after earnings
- Where KKR’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded KKR
- Are KKR insiders buying or selling?
- How much of KKR is sold short?
- How many institutions own KKR?
- Is KKR diluting shareholders?
- KKR financial health scores
- What KKR talks about on earnings calls
- Which ETFs hold KKR?
- The right benchmark for KKR
- Other financial services stocks
- Data and methodology
Did KKR beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, KKR & Co. Inc. (KKR) returned +56.1% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 33.9 percentage points, or +9.3% a year against +13.7%.
| Period | KKR | S&P 500 | KKR per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −29.4% | +15.7% | −29.4% | +15.7% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +50.9% | +85.0% | +14.7% | +22.8% | Lagged |
| 5 years | +56.1% | +90.0% | +9.3% | +13.7% | Lagged |
| 10 years | +649.6% | +312.9% | +22.3% | +15.2% | Beat |
- 1 year
- KKR
- −29.4%
- S&P 500
- +15.7%
- KKR per year
- −29.4%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.7%
- Result
- Lagged
- 3 years
- KKR
- +50.9%
- S&P 500
- +85.0%
- KKR per year
- +14.7%
- S&P 500 per year
- +22.8%
- Result
- Lagged
- 5 years
- KKR
- +56.1%
- S&P 500
- +90.0%
- KKR per year
- +9.3%
- S&P 500 per year
- +13.7%
- Result
- Lagged
- 10 years
- KKR
- +649.6%
- S&P 500
- +312.9%
- KKR per year
- +22.3%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.2%
- Result
- Beat
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
KKR is in the S&P 500 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.
KKR returns by year vs the S&P 500
KKR beat the S&P 500 in 7 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | KKR | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Sep 30, 2026) | −28.1% | +12.7% | −40.8% |
| 2025 | −13.3% | +17.7% | −31.0% |
| 2024 | +79.6% | +24.9% | +54.7% |
| 2023 | +80.5% | +26.2% | +54.3% |
| 2022 | −37.0% | −18.2% | −18.8% |
| 2021 | +85.8% | +28.7% | +57.1% |
| 2020 | +41.2% | +18.3% | +22.9% |
| 2019 | +51.5% | +31.2% | +20.3% |
| 2018 | −4.3% | −4.6% | +0.3% |
| 2017 | +41.8% | +21.7% | +20.1% |
KKR risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, KKR had a Sharpe ratio of 0.33 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 41.6% and its beta 1.83: it tended to move about 1.8× as much as the market.
| Metric | KKR | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +9.3% | +13.7% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 41.6% | 15.7% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.53 | 1.08 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −47.1% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.83 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
How KKR behaved in past crashes
KKR’s deepest fall in the crises below was −45.5% in the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), against −34.1% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | KKR | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −33.9% | −20.2% | −$33,880 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −45.5% | −34.1% | −$45,480 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −42.1% | −25.4% | −$42,130 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −33.0% | −19.0% | −$32,990 |
| Window | KKR max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −44.6% |
| Last 3 years | −49.4% |
| Last 5 years | −49.4% |
| Last 10 years | −48.4% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with KKR, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, KKR’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.69, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.56, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.36 and with gold (GLD) −0.07.
Adding a 5% KKR position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 16.4%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| LMT | −0.09 | BX | 0.87 |
| ABBV | −0.02 | BLK | 0.77 |
| PG | −0.02 | MCO | 0.76 |
| GILD | −0.01 | BNY | 0.75 |
| LLY | 0.00 | SPGI | 0.74 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
What Wall Street analysts say about KKR
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 16 analysts published 167 ratings on KKR. Their latest calls were 93% Buy, 7% Hold and 0% Sell. 11 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $135.77 (range $106.00–$187.00), +51.1% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4.9★ | 65.7% | ||
| 4.9★ | 66.3% | ||
| Brian Bedell | Deutsche Bank | 4.9★ | 56.7% |
| Chris Kotowski | Oppenheimer | 4.9★ | 37.1% |
| Stephen Biggar | Argus Research | 4.8★ | 56.1% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on KKR are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
Latest KKR upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 12 | Target cut Hold | William Katz |
| Oct 8 | Target cut Buy | Benjamin Budish |
| Oct 5 | Target cut Buy | Craig Siegenthaler |
| Aug 27 | Target raised Buy | Chris Kotowski |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on KKR in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get KKR right?
Of the 405 analyst price targets on KKR set from 2019 until a year ago, 73.8% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 5.2 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 74 days. The median target sat 19.6% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said KKR would be by now: a year ago, 6 analysts had a price target on KKR, and the median of their latest targets was $152.00. On Oct 20, 2026 KKR closed at $89.19, 41.3% below it.
73.8%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
74 daysmedian time to reach a target
−41.3%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of KKR | 8 | +0.2% | +5.2% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of KKR | 6 | +0.3% | −15.0% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on KKR through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How KKR moves after earnings
KKR beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 11 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 3.2% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 7 of the 12 reports. In 4 of the 11 beats the stock still fell. The next report is expected on Nov 9, 2026.
11/12earnings beats
±3.2%average move per report
Nov 9, 2026next report (expected)
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $1.63 vs $1.43 | +8.4% | +2.2% |
| May 5, 2026 | $1.39 vs $1.26 | +7.6% | −2.5% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $1.12 vs $1.14 | −10.2% | −1.5% |
| Nov 7, 2025 | $1.41 vs $1.30 | +153.3% | +0.7% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $1.18 vs $1.14 | +181.3% | −5.2% |
| May 1, 2025 | $1.15 vs $1.13 | +78.6% | +2.3% |
| Feb 4, 2025 | $1.32 vs $1.30 | +60.7% | −5.8% |
| Oct 24, 2024 | $1.38 vs $1.20 | +164.1% | +1.0% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where KKR’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2025, KKR’s largest segment was Insurance Segment, with 49.3% of $23.6 billion revenue (−20.7% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance Segment | $11.6 billion | 49.3% | −20.7% |
| Asset Management And Strategic Holdings Segments | $7.8 billion | 33.3% | — |
| Asset Management Segment | $4.1 billion | 17.4% | −43.1% |
From KKR’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded KKR
As of Oct 20, 2026, 10 members of Congress had disclosed 66 trades in KKR (35 buys and 31 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Apr 13, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Alan Armstrong | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 19, 2025 | Josh Gottheimer | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Valerie Hoyle | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 7, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Josh Gottheimer | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 14, 2025 | Josh Gottheimer | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
Are KKR insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, KKR insiders made 8 open‑market purchases worth $28.4 million by 5 insiders and no sales worth $1.1 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings.
After the 57 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, KKR beat the S&P 500 by an average of 1.5 percentage points over the next 12 months; 39% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Barakett Timothy R | Director | $4.7 million |
| Mar 2, 2026 | Dillon Mary N | Director | $2.0 million |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Nuttall Scott C | Director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer | $4.4 million |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Bae Joseph Y | Director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer | $4.4 million |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Cohler Matt | Director | $4.5 million |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of KKR is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.00% of KKR’s float was sold short: 13.8 million shares, or 3.4 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 1.19%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so KKR is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own KKR?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,359 institutions reported holding KKR in 13F filings, down 13 from the quarter before and down from 1,417 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 61.7% of KKR’s shares. In the quarter 648 institutions added to their positions and 469 cut them.
1,35913F holders
133new positions
140positions closed
61.7%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is KKR diluting shareholders?
KKR’s diluted share count rose 63.7% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 1.8% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $722.1 million in fiscal 2025, 3.8% of revenue. KKR spent $122.9 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 0.13% of its market value; stock pay equaled 587.5% of the buybacks.
+1.8%share count, 1 year
+63.7%share count, 5 years
3.8%stock pay as % of revenue
0.13%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from KKR’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
KKR financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, KKR’s Piotroski F‑score was 6 out of 9; 62% of scored stocks reach 6 or more. The Altman Z‑score is not meaningful for financial services companies, so it is left out.
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
What KKR talks about on earnings calls
On its latest earnings call (Jul 30, 2026), KKR’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 7 times, against 26 on the call before (May 5, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was data centers (6). Tariffs and recession did not come up.
| Mentions | Jul ’26 | May ’26 | Feb ’26 | Nov ’25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 7 | 26 | 14 | 0 |
| AI agents | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Data centers | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 |
| Tariffs | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| China | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Recession | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
- AI
- Jul ’26
- 7
- May ’26
- 26
- Feb ’26
- 14
- Nov ’25
- 0
- AI agents
- Jul ’26
- 0
- May ’26
- 0
- Feb ’26
- 0
- Nov ’25
- 0
- Data centers
- Jul ’26
- 6
- May ’26
- 7
- Feb ’26
- 4
- Nov ’25
- 0
- Tariffs
- Jul ’26
- 0
- May ’26
- 1
- Feb ’26
- 5
- Nov ’25
- 3
- China
- Jul ’26
- 0
- May ’26
- 0
- Feb ’26
- 0
- Nov ’25
- 1
- Recession
- Jul ’26
- 0
- May ’26
- 0
- Feb ’26
- 0
- Nov ’25
- 3
Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?
Which ETFs hold KKR?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 50 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held KKR. Its largest weight is in XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF), at 0.78% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of KKR |
|---|---|---|
| XLF | State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF | 0.78% |
| VFH | Vanguard Financials Index Fund | 0.68% |
| IXG | iShares Global Financials ETF | 0.39% |
| CGGR | Capital Group Growth ETF | 0.39% |
| FFLC | Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity Fundamental Large Cap Core ETF | 0.25% |
| VTV | Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.23% |
| RSP | Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF | 0.17% |
| SCHG | Schwab U.S. Large-Cap Growth ETF | 0.16% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for KKR
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For KKR that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other financial services stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | +82.4% | 17.1% |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | +128.0% | 24.4% |
| V | Visa Inc. | +67.2% | 22.7% |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | +63.1% | 23.9% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | +43.4% | 26.5% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | +125.4% | 28.6% |
| GS | The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | +166.4% | 28.6% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | +93.7% | 30.1% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
See what KKR does to your own portfolio
- Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
- Exent replays your whole portfolio, KKR included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
- It finds holdings that move together with KKR and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
- Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. KKR returned +649.6% (+22.3% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, KKR (KKR & Co. Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
KKR fell −45.5% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
KKR fell −42.1% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, KKR’s Sharpe ratio was 0.33 and its Sortino ratio 0.53, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.
KKR’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 39.2%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.83.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with KKR over the last 60 months were LMT (−0.09), ABBV (−0.02), PG (−0.02). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.36 and with gold (GLD) −0.07.
KKR beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 11 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 11 of 12. The stock moved 3.2% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Nov 9, 2026.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 10 members of Congress had disclosed 66 trades in KKR (35 buys and 31 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.00% of KKR’s float was sold short (13.8 million shares, 3.4 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 1.19%.
Yes. KKR’s diluted share count rose 63.7% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 1.8% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 3.8% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $122.9 million.
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Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.