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CI Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

The Cigna Group, healthcare (market value $78.9 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Sep 30, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 12

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

9 4★+ analysts covering (was 6)

Key takeaways

  • CI returned +47.3% over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026 versus +90.0% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.29 against 0.67 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −84.3% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 28.5% and beta 0.29.
  • 23 analysts rated it in the past year; 78% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • CI beat earnings estimates in 11 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 5.4% on average, up or down, around each report.

Did CI beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, The Cigna Group (CI) returned +47.3% including dividends, versus +90.0% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 42.7 percentage points, or +8.1% a year against +13.7%.

PeriodCIS&P 500CI per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year−4.6%+15.7%−4.6%+15.7%Lagged
3 years−0.4%+85.0%−0.1%+22.8%Lagged
5 years+47.3%+90.0%+8.1%+13.7%Lagged
10 years+129.5%+312.9%+8.7%+15.2%Lagged
  • 1 year
    CI
    −4.6%
    S&P 500
    +15.7%
    CI per year
    −4.6%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.7%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 3 years
    CI
    −0.4%
    S&P 500
    +85.0%
    CI per year
    −0.1%
    S&P 500 per year
    +22.8%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 5 years
    CI
    +47.3%
    S&P 500
    +90.0%
    CI per year
    +8.1%
    S&P 500 per year
    +13.7%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 10 years
    CI
    +129.5%
    S&P 500
    +312.9%
    CI per year
    +8.7%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.2%
    Result
    Lagged

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Sep 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

CI is in the S&P 500 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.

CI returns by year vs the S&P 500

CI beat the S&P 500 in 2 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

YearCIS&P 500Difference
2026 (to Sep 30, 2026)−0.7%+12.7%−13.4%
2025+1.7%+17.7%−16.0%
2024−6.3%+24.9%−31.2%
2023−8.0%+26.2%−34.2%
2022+46.7%−18.2%+64.9%
2021+12.3%+28.7%−16.4%
2020+1.8%+18.3%−16.5%
2019+7.7%+31.2%−23.5%
2018−6.5%−4.6%−1.9%
2017+52.3%+21.7%+30.6%

CI risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, CI had a Sharpe ratio of 0.29 against 0.67 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 28.6% and its beta 0.29: it tended to move about 0.3× as much as the market.

MetricCIS&P 500
Annual return+8.1%+13.7%
Volatility (annualized)28.6%15.7%
Sharpe ratio0.290.67
Sortino ratio0.421.08
Max drawdown (month-end)−30.9%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.291.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How CI behaved in past crashes

CI’s deepest fall in the crises below was −84.3% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisCIS&P 500Loss on $100,000
Global financial crisis (2007–09)−84.3%−56.5%−$84,350
2018 trade-war selloff−20.8%−20.2%−$20,830
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−41.3%−34.1%−$41,270
2022 inflation bear market−11.1%−25.4%−$11,080
2025 tariff selloff−7.3%−19.0%−$7,270
WindowCI max drawdown
Last 1 year−21.0%
Last 3 years−32.1%
Last 5 years−32.1%
Last 10 years−42.5%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with CI, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, CI’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.16, with the Nasdaq‑100 −0.07, with long Treasuries (TLT) −0.01 and with gold (GLD) 0.10.

Adding a 5% CI position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.7% to 15.2%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
NET−0.23ELV0.61
NVDA−0.22CVS0.58
AMD−0.22PGR0.53
DDOG−0.21TRV0.52
CRM−0.19PM0.47

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

What Wall Street analysts say about CI

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 23 analysts published 227 ratings on CI. Their latest calls were 78% Buy, 22% Hold and 0% Sell. 9 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $338.79 (range $290.00–$378.00), +11.3% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
4.9★65.0%
4.9★60.3%
A.J. RiceUBS4.8★55.9%
John RansomRaymond James4.8★49.8%
Michael WiederhornOppenheimer4.8★49.8%

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on CI are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

Latest CI upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

DateRating and targetAnalyst
Oct 5Target raised
Buy
Target $387, was $381
Lance Wilkes
Bernstein
Sep 9New coverage
Hold
Target $290
Elizabeth Anderson CFA
Evercore ISI
Aug 26Target cut
Buy
Target $346, was $370
Jessica Tassan
Piper Sandler

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on CI in the 5 weeks to Sep 22, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get CI right?

Of the 407 analyst price targets on CI set from 2019 until a year ago, 43.0% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 25.6 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 120 days. The median target sat 18.9% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said CI would be by now: a year ago, 12 analysts had a price target on CI, and the median of their latest targets was $342.00. On Oct 20, 2026 CI closed at $306.63, 10.3% below it.

43.0%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
120 daysmedian time to reach a target
−10.3%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of CI13+2.6%+3.1%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of CI11−0.3%+3.4%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on CI through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How CI moves after earnings

CI beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 11 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 5.4% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 4 of the 12 reports. In 7 of the 11 beats the stock still fell. The next report is expected on Nov 5, 2026.

11/12earnings beats
±5.4%average move per report
Nov 5, 2026next report (expected)
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Jul 30, 2026$7.78 vs $7.60+2.2%−5.9%
Apr 30, 2026$7.79 vs $7.60+3.3%−3.2%
Feb 5, 2026$8.08 vs $7.88+3.1%+7.5%
Oct 30, 2025$7.83 vs $7.64+3.2%−18.3%
Jul 31, 2025$7.20 vs $7.16+6.9%−12.0%
May 2, 2025$6.74 vs $6.35+8.8%−0.6%
Jan 30, 2025$6.64 vs $7.84+3.6%−3.0%
Oct 31, 2024$7.51 vs $7.23+5.6%+1.2%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where CI’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2024 (the year to Dec 31, 2024), CI’s largest reported region was the United States, with 100.0% of its $241.6 billion revenue.

By business, the largest segment was Evernorth, with 83.2% of $282.4 billion revenue (+18.6% on the year before).

SegmentRevenueShareGrowth
Evernorth$235.0 billion83.2%+18.6%
Cigna Healthcare$47.4 billion16.8%−0.2%

From CI’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded CI

As of Oct 20, 2026, 19 members of Congress had disclosed 92 trades in CI (45 buys and 46 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Mar 27, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Mar 27, 2026Alan ArmstrongBuy$1,001–$15,000
Mar 23, 2026Jared MoskowitzSale$1,001–$15,000
Mar 13, 2026Gilbert CisnerosSale$1,001–$15,000
Jan 13, 2026Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000
Dec 19, 2025Gilbert CisnerosBuy$1,001–$15,000
Dec 18, 2025Julie JohnsonSale$1,001–$15,000
Nov 13, 2025Julie JohnsonSale$1,001–$15,000
Nov 12, 2025Gilbert CisnerosSale$1,001–$15,000
Oct 30, 2025Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
Sep 29, 2025Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades

3 trades in CI disclosed in the last 30 days are in Exent Radar.

Are CI insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, CI insiders made 1 open‑market purchase worth $999,916 by 1 insider and 20 sales worth $66.8 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings.

After the 11 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, CI beat the S&P 500 by an average of 3.9 percentage points over the next 12 months; 40% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

Q4 ’24
Q1 ’25
Q2 ’25
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
DateInsiderRoleValue
Nov 3, 2025Cordani DavidDirector, officer: Chairman & CEO$999,916
Aug 11, 2021Zarcone Donna FDirector$105,794
Aug 10, 2021Zarcone Donna FDirector$104,947
Sep 11, 2020Palmer Eric PEVP, Chief Financial Officer$168,768
Jun 15, 2020Foss Eric JDirector$1.0 million

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of CI is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.64% of CI’s float was sold short: 7.0 million shares, or 3.9 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 1.44%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so CI is less heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 20262.41%
  • May 29, 20262.30%
  • Jun 30, 20262.37%
  • Jul 31, 20261.81%
  • Aug 31, 20262.39%
  • Sep 30, 20262.64%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own CI?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,770 institutions reported holding CI in 13F filings, up 44 from the quarter before and down from 1,795 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 91.2% of CI’s shares. In the quarter 837 institutions added to their positions and 587 cut them.

1,77013F holders
161new positions
121positions closed
91.2%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is CI diluting shareholders?

CI’s diluted share count fell 27.8% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 6.1% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

CI spent $3.6 billion buying back shares, a buyback yield of 4.98% of its market value; stock pay equaled 0.0% of the buybacks.

−6.1%share count, 1 year
−27.8%share count, 5 years
0.0%stock pay as % of revenue
4.98%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from CI’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

CI financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, CI’s Altman Z‑score was 2.80, in the grey zone (where 149 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 8 out of 9; 20% of scored stocks reach 8 or more.

2.80Altman Z‑score: grey zone
8/9Piotroski F‑score

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What CI talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Jul 30, 2026), CI’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 11 times, against 16 on the call before (Apr 30, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. Tariffs and recession did not come up.

MentionsJul ’26Apr ’26Feb ’26Oct ’25
AI111620
AI agents0100
Data centers0000
Tariffs0000
China0000
Recession0000
  • AI
    Jul ’26
    11
    Apr ’26
    16
    Feb ’26
    2
    Oct ’25
    0
  • AI agents
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    1
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Data centers
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Tariffs
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • China
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Recession
    Jul ’26
    0
    Apr ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold CI?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 50 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held CI. Its largest weight is in FXH (First Trust Health Care AlphaDEX Fund), at 2.58% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of CI
FXHFirst Trust Health Care AlphaDEX Fund2.58%
DSTLDistillate U.S. Fundamental Stability & Value ETF1.44%
XLVState Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF1.24%
VHTVanguard Health Care Index Fund ETF Shares1.01%
WTVWisdomTree U.S. Value Fund0.99%
CLSEConvergence Long/Short Equity ETF0.59%
FFLCFidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity Fundamental Large Cap Core ETF0.49%
FNDXSchwab Fundamental U.S. Large Company Index ETF0.42%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

How much is CI’s CEO paid?

David M. Cordani, CI’s Chair and Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $22.9 million for fiscal 2025, down 1.7% from $23.3 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 13, 2026. 76% of it came as stock and option awards, valued when they were granted rather than when they pay out. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million.

Pay componentAmountShare of total
Salary$1.6 million7.0%
Stock and option awards$17.3 million75.8%
Incentive plan (cash)$3.2 million14.0%
Other$736,9543.2%
Other top executivesRoleTotal pay, 2025
Brian C. EvankoPresident and Chief Operating Officer$10.0 million
Nicole S. JonesExecutive Vice President, Chief Administrative Officer, and General Counsel$6.0 million
Ann M. DennisonExecutive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, The Cigna Group$4.7 million
Everett NevilleExecutive Vice President, Strategy and Business Development$4.1 million

Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500

The right benchmark for CI

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For CI that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other healthcare stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
LLYEli Lilly and Company+423.3%32.6%
JNJJohnson & Johnson+88.5%16.8%
ABBVAbbVie Inc.+189.3%23.5%
UNHUnitedHealth Group Incorporated+1.6%32.7%
MRKMerck & Co., Inc.+122.5%23.6%
TMOThermo Fisher Scientific Inc.+19.6%27.0%
AMGNAmgen Inc.+130.2%25.0%
GILDGilead Sciences, Inc.+151.9%24.6%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Sep 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

See what CI does to your own portfolio

  1. Upload a screenshot of your holdings (or a CSV, Excel, PDF or Google Sheet); no brokerage login.
  2. Exent replays your whole portfolio, CI included, through the 2008, 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2025 selloffs and shows which holdings drive the losses.
  3. It finds holdings that move together with CI and compares your portfolio with a risk‑matched benchmark, Sharpe and Sortino included.
  4. Use the what‑if simulator to change weights and see the effect before you trade.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

No. CI returned +129.5% (+8.7% a year) over the 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, versus +312.9% (+15.2% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, CI (The Cigna Group) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.

CI fell −84.3% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

CI fell −41.3% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

CI fell −11.1% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Sep 30, 2026, CI’s Sharpe ratio was 0.29 and its Sortino ratio 0.42, versus 0.67 and 1.08 for the S&P 500.

CI’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 28.5%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.29.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with CI over the last 60 months were NET (−0.23), NVDA (−0.22), AMD (−0.22). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was −0.01 and with gold (GLD) 0.10.

CI beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 11 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. The stock moved 5.4% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it. Its next report is expected on Nov 5, 2026.

David M. Cordani, CI’s Chair and Chief Executive Officer, received $22.9 million in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $1.6 million salary and $17.3 million in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Mar 13, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 19 members of Congress had disclosed 92 trades in CI (45 buys and 46 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.64% of CI’s float was sold short (7.0 million shares, 3.9 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 1.44%.

No. CI’s diluted share count fell 27.8% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 6.1% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.0% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $3.6 billion.

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