How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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W Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Wayfair Inc., consumer cyclical (market value $15.3 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
What changed since Nov 2
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
+1 new rating59% Buy ratings (was 61%)14 4★+ analysts covering (was 13)
Key takeaways
- W returned −53.5% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.13 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −84.5% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
- Five‑year volatility was 79.7% and beta 3.09.
- 28 analysts rated it in the past year; 59% of their latest calls were Buy.
- W beat earnings estimates in 9 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 12.8% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on W say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did W beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about W
- W returns by year vs the S&P 500
- W risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How W behaved in past crashes
- What moves with W, and what doesn’t
- Latest W upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get W right?
- How W moves after earnings
- Where W’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded W
- Are W insiders buying or selling?
- How much of W is sold short?
- How many institutions own W?
- Is W diluting shareholders?
- W financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold W?
- The right benchmark for W
- Other consumer cyclical stocks
- Data and methodology
Did W beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Wayfair Inc. (W) returned −53.5% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 129.4 percentage points, or −14.2% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | W | S&P 500 | W per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +12.0% | +12.0% | +12.0% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +172.0% | +87.4% | +39.6% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | −53.5% | +75.9% | −14.2% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 10 years | +247.8% | +316.3% | +13.3% | +15.3% | Lagged |
- 1 year
- W
- +12.0%
- S&P 500
- +12.0%
- W per year
- +12.0%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Lagged
- 3 years
- W
- +172.0%
- S&P 500
- +87.4%
- W per year
- +39.6%
- S&P 500 per year
- +23.3%
- Result
- Beat
- 5 years
- W
- −53.5%
- S&P 500
- +75.9%
- W per year
- −14.2%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Lagged
- 10 years
- W
- +247.8%
- S&P 500
- +316.3%
- W per year
- +13.3%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.3%
- Result
- Lagged
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about W
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 28 analysts published 265 ratings on W. Their latest calls were 59% Buy, 41% Hold and 0% Sell. 14 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $128.27 (range $96.00–$160.00), +14.0% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Lasser | UBS | 5.0★ | 55.4% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 41.9% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 61.6% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.8★ | 50.8% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.8★ | 55.2% |
Other analysts covering W: Steven Forbes · Colin Sebastian · Charles Grom · Eric Sheridan · John Blackledge
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on W are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
W returns by year vs the S&P 500
W beat the S&P 500 in 5 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | W | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +15.4% | +11.7% | +3.7% |
| 2025 | +126.6% | +17.7% | +108.9% |
| 2024 | −28.2% | +24.9% | −53.1% |
| 2023 | +87.6% | +26.2% | +61.4% |
| 2022 | −82.7% | −18.2% | −64.5% |
| 2021 | −15.9% | +28.7% | −44.6% |
| 2020 | +149.9% | +18.3% | +131.6% |
| 2019 | +0.3% | +31.2% | −30.9% |
| 2018 | +12.2% | −4.6% | +16.8% |
| 2017 | +129.0% | +21.7% | +107.3% |
W risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, W had a Sharpe ratio of 0.13 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 80.7% and its beta 3.09: it tended to move about 3.1× as much as the market.
| Metric | W | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −14.2% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 80.7% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.13 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.22 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −87.9% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 3.09 | 1.00 |
How W behaved in past crashes
W’s deepest fall in the crises below was −84.5% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | W | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −45.5% | −20.2% | −$45,530 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −71.4% | −34.1% | −$71,430 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −84.5% | −25.4% | −$84,540 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −47.9% | −19.0% | −$47,900 |
| Window | W max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −51.8% |
| Last 3 years | −71.5% |
| Last 5 years | −92.8% |
| Last 10 years | −93.0% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with W, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, W’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.59, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.57, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.46 and with gold (GLD) 0.02.
Adding a 5% W position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 17.4%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| PGR | −0.09 | BX | 0.58 |
| UNH | −0.09 | MCO | 0.57 |
| ABBV | −0.08 | COF | 0.57 |
| BMY | −0.07 | AXP | 0.57 |
| KO | −0.06 | PH | 0.57 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest W upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Target raised Buy | Michael Lasser |
| Nov 5 | Target raised Hold | Colin Sebastian |
| Nov 5 | Target raised Hold | John Blackledge |
| Nov 4 | Upgrade Buy | Charles Grom |
| Nov 4 | Target raised Hold | Eric Sheridan |
| Oct 8 | Target raised Hold | Colin Sebastian |
| Sep 30 | Target raised Buy | Peter Keith |
| Sep 29 | Target raised Buy | David Bellinger |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on W in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get W right?
Of the 822 analyst price targets on W set from 2019 until a year ago, 71.8% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 3.2 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 27 days. The median target sat 17.3% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said W would be by now: a year ago, 25 analysts had a price target on W, and the median of their latest targets was $123.00. On Oct 20, 2026 W closed at $113.51, 7.7% below it.
71.8%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
27 daysmedian time to reach a target
−7.7%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of W | 39 | +6.1% | +10.3% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of W | 29 | −2.7% | +13.3% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on W through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How W moves after earnings
W beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 9 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 4, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 12.8% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 7 of the 12 reports. In 2 of the 9 beats the stock still fell.
9/12earnings beats
±12.8%average move per report
7/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | $0.95 vs $0.90 | +1.4% | +20.5% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $0.26 vs $0.26 | +1.5% | −10.6% |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $0.85 vs $0.64 | +1.1% | −11.0% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | $0.70 vs $0.46 | −5.4% | +19.9% |
| Aug 4, 2025 | $0.87 vs $0.36 | +10.1% | +13.0% |
| May 1, 2025 | $0.10 vs −$0.18 | −12.7% | +11.6% |
| Feb 20, 2025 | −$0.25 vs $0.05 | +15.0% | −9.7% |
| Nov 1, 2024 | $0.22 vs $0.15 | −5.4% | −2.1% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where W’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), W’s largest reported region was Us, with 100.0% of its $11.0 billion revenue.
By business, the largest segment was US Segment, with 88.1% of $12.5 billion revenue.
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| US Segment | $11.0 billion | 88.1% | — |
| International Segment | $1.5 billion | 11.9% | — |
From W’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded W
As of Oct 20, 2026, 9 members of Congress had disclosed 27 trades in W (15 buys and 12 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated May 11, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 7, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 1, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 17, 2024 | Jonathan Jackson | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Dec 20, 2023 | Jonathan Jackson | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Dec 15, 2023 | Jonathan Jackson | Buy | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Apr 10, 2023 | Daniel Goldman | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Dec 6, 2022 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 3, 2022 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 10, 2022 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
Are W insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, W insiders made no open‑market purchases and 107 sales, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Aug 28, 2025.
After the 22 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, W beat the S&P 500 by an average of 80.9 percentage points over the next 12 months; 59% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2025 | Kumin Michael Andrew | Director | $11,995 |
| May 19, 2022 | Choe Michael W. | Director | $1.7 million |
| Mar 3, 2022 | Choe Michael W. | Director | $1.2 million |
| Nov 22, 2021 | Choe Michael W. | Director | $2.6 million |
| Mar 4, 2021 | Kumin Michael Andrew | Director | $1.6 million |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of W is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 10.81% of W’s float was sold short: 12.0 million shares, or 4.8 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 17.63%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so W is more heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own W?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 515 institutions reported holding W in 13F filings, up 8 from the quarter before and up from 404 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 92.8% of W’s shares. In the quarter 259 institutions added to their positions and 144 cut them.
51513F holders
92new positions
80positions closed
92.8%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is W diluting shareholders?
W’s diluted share count rose 31.2% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 6.0% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $335.0 million in fiscal 2025, 2.7% of revenue. W did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.
+6.0%share count, 1 year
+31.2%share count, 5 years
2.7%stock pay as % of revenue
0.00%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from W’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
W financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, W’s Altman Z‑score was 3.19, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 4 out of 9; 88% of scored stocks reach 4 or more.
3.19Altman Z‑score: safe zone
4/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold W?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 21 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held W. Its largest weight is in VBK (Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund ETF Shares), at 0.32% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of W |
|---|---|---|
| VBK | Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.32% |
| SCHA | Schwab U.S. Small-Cap ETF | 0.32% |
| SCHM | Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF | 0.27% |
| VXF | Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.14% |
| VB | Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.14% |
| DFAS | Dimensional U.S. Small Cap ETF | 0.14% |
| FNDA | Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company Index ETF | 0.12% |
| IWS | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF | 0.12% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for W
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For W that is MDY. Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other consumer cyclical stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | +42.5% | 36.5% |
| TSLA | Tesla, Inc. | +7.7% | 58.6% |
| HD | The Home Depot, Inc. | +0.5% | 24.6% |
| MCD | McDonald's Corporation | +18.1% | 17.2% |
| TJX | The TJX Companies, Inc. | +130.3% | 22.2% |
| BKNG | Booking Holdings Inc. | +56.6% | 33.5% |
| LOW | Lowe's Companies, Inc. | −1.2% | 26.1% |
| SBUX | Starbucks Corporation | +10.0% | 31.3% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check W with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average W price target is 14.0% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on W say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering W are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
No. W returned +247.8% (+13.3% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, W (Wayfair Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
W fell −71.4% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
W fell −84.5% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, W’s Sharpe ratio was 0.13 and its Sortino ratio 0.22, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
W’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 79.7%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 3.09.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with W over the last 60 months were PGR (−0.09), UNH (−0.09), ABBV (−0.08). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.46 and with gold (GLD) 0.02.
W beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 9 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 4, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. The stock moved 12.8% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 9 members of Congress had disclosed 27 trades in W (15 buys and 12 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 10.81% of W’s float was sold short (12.0 million shares, 4.8 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 17.63%.
Yes. W’s diluted share count rose 31.2% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and rose 6.0% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 2.7% of revenue.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on W now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on W are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.