How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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THC Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Tenet Healthcare Corporation, healthcare (market value $21.2 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
What changed since Nov 2
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
+3 new ratings89% Buy ratings (was 88%)18 analysts covering (was 17)
Key takeaways
- THC returned +281.3% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.74 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −86.6% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
- Five‑year volatility was 45.0% and beta 1.19.
- 18 analysts rated it in the past year; 89% of their latest calls were Buy.
- THC beat earnings estimates in 12 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 9.4% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on THC say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did THC beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about THC
- THC returns by year vs the S&P 500
- THC risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How THC behaved in past crashes
- What moves with THC, and what doesn’t
- Latest THC upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get THC right?
- How THC moves after earnings
- Where THC’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded THC
- Are THC insiders buying or selling?
- How much of THC is sold short?
- How many institutions own THC?
- Is THC diluting shareholders?
- THC financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold THC?
- The right benchmark for THC
- Other healthcare stocks
- Data and methodology
Did THC beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Tenet Healthcare Corporation (THC) returned +281.3% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 205.4 percentage points, or +30.7% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | THC | S&P 500 | THC per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +32.3% | +12.0% | +32.3% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +408.8% | +87.4% | +72.0% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +281.3% | +75.9% | +30.7% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 10 years | +1,286% | +316.3% | +30.1% | +15.3% | Beat |
- 1 year
- THC
- +32.3%
- S&P 500
- +12.0%
- THC per year
- +32.3%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 3 years
- THC
- +408.8%
- S&P 500
- +87.4%
- THC per year
- +72.0%
- S&P 500 per year
- +23.3%
- Result
- Beat
- 5 years
- THC
- +281.3%
- S&P 500
- +75.9%
- THC per year
- +30.7%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 10 years
- THC
- +1,286%
- S&P 500
- +316.3%
- THC per year
- +30.1%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.3%
- Result
- Beat
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about THC
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 18 analysts published 152 ratings on THC. Their latest calls were 89% Buy, 11% Hold and 0% Sell. 5 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $289.00 (range $265.00–$308.00), −0.4% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 61.3% |
| A.J. Rice | UBS | 4.9★ | 56.4% |
| Ann Hynes | Mizuho Securities | 4.9★ | 61.8% |
| Ben Hendrix | RBC Capital | 4.7★ | 49.5% |
| Craig Hettenbach | Morgan Stanley | 4.7★ | 53.5% |
Other analysts covering THC: John Ransom
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on THC are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
THC returns by year vs the S&P 500
THC beat the S&P 500 in 6 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | THC | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +37.5% | +11.7% | +25.8% |
| 2025 | +57.4% | +17.7% | +39.7% |
| 2024 | +67.0% | +24.9% | +42.1% |
| 2023 | +54.9% | +26.2% | +28.7% |
| 2022 | −40.3% | −18.2% | −22.1% |
| 2021 | +104.6% | +28.7% | +75.9% |
| 2020 | +5.0% | +18.3% | −13.3% |
| 2019 | +121.9% | +31.2% | +90.7% |
| 2018 | +13.1% | −4.6% | +17.7% |
| 2017 | +2.2% | +21.7% | −19.5% |
THC risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, THC had a Sharpe ratio of 0.74 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 44.1% and its beta 1.19: it tended to move about 1.2× as much as the market.
| Metric | THC | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +30.7% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 44.1% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.74 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.32 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −48.4% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.19 | 1.00 |
How THC behaved in past crashes
THC’s deepest fall in the crises below was −86.6% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | THC | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −86.6% | −56.5% | −$86,570 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −42.5% | −20.2% | −$42,470 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −67.8% | −34.1% | −$67,810 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −45.6% | −25.4% | −$45,590 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −12.9% | −19.0% | −$12,920 |
| Window | THC max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −29.3% |
| Last 3 years | −36.9% |
| Last 5 years | −58.9% |
| Last 10 years | −71.7% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with THC, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, THC’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.42, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.29, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.47 and with gold (GLD) 0.30.
Adding a 5% THC position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.7%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| GILD | −0.15 | HCA | 0.70 |
| IBM | −0.12 | HWM | 0.58 |
| INTC | −0.09 | ABT | 0.56 |
| COP | 0.00 | SYK | 0.54 |
| MRVL | 0.03 | ECL | 0.52 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest THC upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 | Target raised Buy | A.J. Rice |
| Nov 2 | Target raised Buy | Ann Hynes |
| Nov 1 | Target raised Buy | Ben Hendrix |
| Oct 30 | Target raised Buy | John Ransom |
| Oct 30 | Target raised Buy | Craig Hettenbach |
| Sep 22 | New coverage Hold | Sean Dodge |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on THC in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get THC right?
Of the 384 analyst price targets on THC set from 2019 until a year ago, 86.7% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 18.1 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 81 days. The median target sat 21.6% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said THC would be by now: a year ago, 14 analysts had a price target on THC, and the median of their latest targets was $239.00. On Oct 20, 2026 THC closed at $272.19, 13.9% above it.
86.7%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
81 daysmedian time to reach a target
+13.9%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of THC | 13 | +4.7% | +7.4% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of THC | 5 | −2.8% | +14.0% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on THC through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How THC moves after earnings
THC beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 23, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 10 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 9.4% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 8 of the 12 reports. In 3 of the 12 beats the stock still fell.
12/12earnings beats
±9.4%average move per report
8/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 23, 2026 | $6.12 vs $4.26 | +3.6% | +19.4% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $4.82 vs $4.17 | −0.5% | +1.8% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | $4.70 vs $4.07 | +1.0% | +20.3% |
| Oct 28, 2025 | $3.70 vs $3.34 | +0.6% | −3.3% |
| Jul 22, 2025 | $4.02 vs $2.87 | +2.1% | −9.4% |
| Apr 29, 2025 | $4.36 vs $3.12 | +1.6% | +15.4% |
| Feb 12, 2025 | $3.44 vs $2.95 | −1.9% | −3.8% |
| Oct 29, 2024 | $2.93 vs $2.33 | +1.5% | +13.3% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where THC’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2025, THC’s largest segment was Ambulatory Care, with 50.2% of $10.3 billion revenue (+14.1% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ambulatory Care | $5.2 billion | 50.2% | +14.1% |
| Hospital Operations | $5.1 billion | 49.8% | −9.2% |
From THC’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded THC
As of Oct 20, 2026, 3 members of Congress had disclosed 9 trades in THC (4 buys and 5 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Apr 20, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | Jonathan Jackson | Sale | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Jonathan Jackson | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Jonathan Jackson | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Jonathan Jackson | Buy | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Sep 3, 2025 | Jonathan Jackson | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Aug 4, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 11, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 4, 2024 | John James | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 10, 2023 | John James | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
Are THC insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, THC insiders made no open‑market purchases and 43 sales worth $71.7 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Oct 26, 2022.
After the 44 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, THC beat the S&P 500 by an average of 31.5 percentage points over the next 12 months; 66% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2022 | Cancelmi Daniel J | EVP & Chief Financial Officer | $473,770 |
| Mar 17, 2020 | Fitzgerald Meghan | Director | $80,112 |
| Mar 16, 2020 | Sutaria Saumya | President & COO | $345,600 |
| Mar 16, 2020 | Arbour Paola M | EVP, Chief Information Officer | $37,862 |
| Mar 16, 2020 | West Nadja | Director | $15,420 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of THC is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.29% of THC’s float was sold short: 1.8 million shares, or 2.1 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 3.20%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so THC is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own THC?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 717 institutions reported holding THC in 13F filings, down 18 from the quarter before and up from 675 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 93.1% of THC’s shares. In the quarter 334 institutions added to their positions and 267 cut them.
71713F holders
98new positions
114positions closed
93.1%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is THC diluting shareholders?
THC’s diluted share count fell 14.5% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 7.2% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $104.0 million in fiscal 2025, 0.5% of revenue. THC spent $1.4 billion buying back shares, a buyback yield of 6.69% of its market value; stock pay equaled 7.2% of the buybacks.
−7.2%share count, 1 year
−14.5%share count, 5 years
0.5%stock pay as % of revenue
6.69%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from THC’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
THC financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, THC’s Altman Z‑score was 2.11, in the grey zone (where 149 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 7 out of 9; 40% of scored stocks reach 7 or more.
2.11Altman Z‑score: grey zone
7/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold THC?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 35 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held THC. Its largest weight is in FXH (First Trust Health Care AlphaDEX Fund), at 1.96% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of THC |
|---|---|---|
| FXH | First Trust Health Care AlphaDEX Fund | 1.96% |
| IJK | iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF | 1.07% |
| DSTL | Distillate U.S. Fundamental Stability & Value ETF | 0.94% |
| COWZ | Pacer US Cash Cows 100 ETF | 0.71% |
| IJH | iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | 0.64% |
| SPMD | State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF | 0.63% |
| MDY | State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust | 0.63% |
| VBR | Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.47% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for THC
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For THC that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other healthcare stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | +482.3% | 32.6% |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | +92.9% | 16.8% |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | +207.1% | 23.5% |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | −3.3% | 32.7% |
| MRK | Merck & Co., Inc. | +97.8% | 23.6% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | +11.7% | 27.0% |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | +163.1% | 24.9% |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | +214.3% | 24.8% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check THC with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average THC price target is in line with the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on THC say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering THC are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. THC returned +1,286% (+30.1% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, THC (Tenet Healthcare Corporation) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
THC fell −86.6% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
THC fell −67.8% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
THC fell −45.6% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, THC’s Sharpe ratio was 0.74 and its Sortino ratio 1.32, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
THC’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 45.0%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.19.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with THC over the last 60 months were GILD (−0.15), IBM (−0.12), INTC (−0.09). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.47 and with gold (GLD) 0.30.
THC beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 23, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 10 of 12. The stock moved 9.4% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 3 members of Congress had disclosed 9 trades in THC (4 buys and 5 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 2.29% of THC’s float was sold short (1.8 million shares, 2.1 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 3.20%.
No. THC’s diluted share count fell 14.5% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 7.2% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.5% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $1.4 billion.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on THC now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on THC are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.