How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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RPRX Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Royalty Pharma plc, healthcare (market value $29.6 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
What changed since Nov 2
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
+3 new ratings5 4★+ analysts covering (was 4)
Key takeaways
- RPRX returned +90.9% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.53 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −15.1% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
- Five‑year volatility was 24.0% and beta 0.36.
- 8 analysts rated it in the past year; 88% of their latest calls were Buy.
- RPRX beat earnings estimates in 9 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 2.2% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on RPRX say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did RPRX beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about RPRX
- RPRX returns by year vs the S&P 500
- RPRX risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How RPRX behaved in past crashes
- What moves with RPRX, and what doesn’t
- Latest RPRX upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get RPRX right?
- How RPRX moves after earnings
- Where RPRX’s revenue comes from
- Are RPRX insiders buying or selling?
- How much of RPRX is sold short?
- How many institutions own RPRX?
- Is RPRX diluting shareholders?
- RPRX financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold RPRX?
- The right benchmark for RPRX
- Other healthcare stocks
- Data and methodology
Did RPRX beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) returned +90.9% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 15.0 percentage points, or +13.8% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | RPRX | S&P 500 | RPRX per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +82.4% | +12.0% | +82.4% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +169.8% | +87.4% | +39.2% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +90.9% | +75.9% | +13.8% | +12.0% | Beat |
| Period | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| RPRX | +82.4% | +169.8% | +90.9% |
| S&P 500 | +12.0% | +87.4% | +75.9% |
| RPRX per year | +82.4% | +39.2% | +13.8% |
| S&P 500 per year | +12.0% | +23.3% | +12.0% |
| Result | Beat | Beat | Beat |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about RPRX
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 8 analysts published 75 ratings on RPRX. Their latest calls were 88% Buy, 13% Hold and 0% Sell. 5 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $66.50 (range $66.00–$67.00), −4.2% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 57.9% |
| Geoff Meacham | Citi | 4.9★ | 49.5% |
| Asad Haider | Goldman Sachs | 4.8★ | 89.6% |
| Terence Flynn | Morgan Stanley | 4.7★ | 48.8% |
| Chris Schott | J.P. Morgan | 4.6★ | 49.4% |
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on RPRX are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
RPRX returns by year vs the S&P 500
RPRX beat the S&P 500 in 2 of the 5 full calendar years shown.
| Year | RPRX | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +76.2% | +11.7% | +64.5% |
| 2025 | +55.3% | +17.7% | +37.6% |
| 2024 | −6.4% | +24.9% | −31.3% |
| 2023 | −27.1% | +26.2% | −53.3% |
| 2022 | +1.0% | −18.2% | +19.2% |
| 2021 | −19.1% | +28.7% | −47.8% |
RPRX risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, RPRX had a Sharpe ratio of 0.53 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 21.7% and its beta 0.36: it tended to move about 0.4× as much as the market.
| Metric | RPRX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +13.8% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 21.7% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.97 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −38.7% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 0.36 | 1.00 |
How RPRX behaved in past crashes
RPRX’s deepest fall in the crises below was −15.1% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | RPRX | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 inflation bear market | −15.1% | −25.4% | −$15,130 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −8.9% | −19.0% | −$8,890 |
| Window | RPRX max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −7.4% |
| Last 3 years | −26.5% |
| Last 5 years | −43.4% |
| Last 10 years | −54.0% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with RPRX, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, RPRX’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.26, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.12, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.36 and with gold (GLD) 0.14.
Adding a 5% RPRX position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.0%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| APP | −0.10 | KO | 0.49 |
| NVDA | −0.07 | PLD | 0.46 |
| BKNG | −0.06 | CVS | 0.45 |
| TSLA | −0.06 | MMM | 0.43 |
| GOOGL | −0.03 | SBUX | 0.40 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest RPRX upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5 | Target raised Buy | Terence Flynn |
| Nov 5 | Target raised Buy | Geoff Meacham |
| Nov 4 | Target raised Buy | Chris Schott |
| Oct 7 | Target raised Buy | Terence Flynn |
| Sep 8 | Target raised Buy | Michael Nedelcovych |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on RPRX in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get RPRX right?
Of the 82 analyst price targets on RPRX set from 2019 until a year ago, 36.6% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 32.0 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 222 days. The median target sat 31.9% above the share price on the day it was set.
36.6%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
222 daysmedian time to reach a target
How RPRX moves after earnings
RPRX beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 9 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 5, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 3 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 2.2% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 6 of the 12 reports. In 4 of the 9 beats the stock still fell.
9/12earnings beats
±2.2%average move per report
6/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | $1.32 vs $1.27 | +1.9% | −0.4% |
| May 6, 2026 | $1.30 vs $1.21 | +4.9% | −0.5% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | $1.46 vs $1.29 | +8.3% | +1.3% |
| Nov 5, 2025 | $1.17 vs $0.99 | −15.1% | +7.8% |
| Aug 6, 2025 | $1.14 vs $1.03 | −14.0% | −2.4% |
| May 8, 2025 | $1.06 vs $0.95 | −19.4% | +1.2% |
| Feb 11, 2025 | $1.15 vs $0.99 | −13.5% | +2.0% |
| Nov 6, 2024 | $1.04 vs $0.93 | −19.0% | −3.7% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where RPRX’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2025, RPRX’s largest segment was Financial Royalty Assets, with 95.1% of $2.4 billion revenue (+5.2% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Financial Royalty Assets | $2.3 billion | 95.1% | +5.2% |
| Royalty Income, Other | $117.0 million | 4.9% | +2.5% |
From RPRX’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Are RPRX insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, RPRX insiders made no open‑market purchases and 42 sales worth $92.8 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Jun 28, 2023.
After the 28 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, RPRX lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 32.9 percentage points over the next 12 months; 4% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 28, 2023 | Legorreta Pablo G. | Director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Chairman of the Board | $3.8 million |
| Jun 13, 2023 | Legorreta Pablo G. | Director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Chairman of the Board | $1.5 million |
| Jun 12, 2023 | Legorreta Pablo G. | Director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Chairman of the Board | $1.5 million |
| May 24, 2023 | Legorreta Pablo G. | Director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Chairman of the Board | $4.8 million |
| May 17, 2023 | Legorreta Pablo G. | Director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Chairman of the Board | $2.3 million |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of RPRX is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.09% of RPRX’s float was sold short: 12.9 million shares, or 4.4 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 3.25%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so RPRX is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own RPRX?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 659 institutions reported holding RPRX in 13F filings, up 58 from the quarter before and up from 472 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 83.2% of RPRX’s shares. In the quarter 406 institutions added to their positions and 176 cut them.
65913F holders
109new positions
51positions closed
83.2%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is RPRX diluting shareholders?
RPRX’s diluted share count fell 5.8% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company.
Stock‑based compensation was $289.9 million in fiscal 2025, 12.2% of revenue. RPRX spent $1.2 billion buying back shares, a buyback yield of 4.55% of its market value; stock pay equaled 23.6% of the buybacks.
−5.8%share count, 1 year
12.2%stock pay as % of revenue
4.55%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from RPRX’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
RPRX financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, RPRX’s Altman Z‑score was 2.20, in the grey zone (where 149 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 6 out of 9; 62% of scored stocks reach 6 or more.
2.20Altman Z‑score: grey zone
6/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold RPRX?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 28 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held RPRX. Its largest weight is in IHE (iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF), at 4.54% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of RPRX |
|---|---|---|
| IHE | iShares U.S. Pharmaceuticals ETF | 4.54% |
| CGDG | Capital Group Dividend Growers | 1.24% |
| PID | Invesco International Dividend Achievers ETF | 0.86% |
| FNDA | Schwab Fundamental U.S. Small Company Index ETF | 0.33% |
| VXF | Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.31% |
| FFLC | Fidelity Covington Trust - Fidelity Fundamental Large Cap Core ETF | 0.30% |
| JQUA | JPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF | 0.25% |
| IWS | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF | 0.25% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for RPRX
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For RPRX that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other healthcare stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | +482.3% | 32.6% |
| JNJ | Johnson & Johnson | +92.9% | 16.8% |
| ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | +207.1% | 23.5% |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | −3.3% | 32.7% |
| MRK | Merck & Co., Inc. | +97.8% | 23.6% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | +11.7% | 27.0% |
| AMGN | Amgen Inc. | +163.1% | 24.9% |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | +214.3% | 24.8% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check RPRX with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average RPRX price target is 4.2% below the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on RPRX say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering RPRX are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. RPRX returned +90.9% (+13.8% a year) over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +75.9% (+12.0% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, RPRX (Royalty Pharma plc) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, RPRX (Royalty Pharma plc) is not one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
RPRX fell −15.1% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, RPRX’s Sharpe ratio was 0.53 and its Sortino ratio 0.97, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
RPRX’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 24.0%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.36.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with RPRX over the last 60 months were APP (−0.10), NVDA (−0.07), BKNG (−0.06). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.36 and with gold (GLD) 0.14.
RPRX beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 9 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 5, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 3 of 12. The stock moved 2.2% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.09% of RPRX’s float was sold short (12.9 million shares, 4.4 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 3.25%.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on RPRX now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on RPRX are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.