How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
StocksInsight
RBLX Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
Roblox Corporation, technology (market value $30.5 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
What changed since Nov 2
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
43% Buy ratings (was 45%)30 analysts covering (was 29)16 4★+ analysts covering (was 15)
Key takeaways
- RBLX returned −48.8% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.06 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −76.5% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
- Five‑year volatility was 69.1% and beta 1.44.
- 30 analysts rated it in the past year; 43% of their latest calls were Buy.
- RBLX beat earnings estimates in 11 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 13.0% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on RBLX say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did RBLX beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about RBLX
- RBLX returns by year vs the S&P 500
- RBLX risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How RBLX behaved in past crashes
- What moves with RBLX, and what doesn’t
- Latest RBLX upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get RBLX right?
- How RBLX moves after earnings
- Members of Congress who traded RBLX
- Are RBLX insiders buying or selling?
- How much of RBLX is sold short?
- How many institutions own RBLX?
- Is RBLX diluting shareholders?
- RBLX financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold RBLX?
- The right benchmark for RBLX
- Other technology stocks
- Data and methodology
Did RBLX beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Roblox Corporation (RBLX) returned −48.8% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 124.7 percentage points, or −12.5% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | RBLX | S&P 500 | RBLX per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −62.2% | +12.0% | −62.2% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +35.1% | +87.4% | +10.6% | +23.3% | Lagged |
| 5 years | −48.8% | +75.9% | −12.5% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| Period | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBLX | −62.2% | +35.1% | −48.8% |
| S&P 500 | +12.0% | +87.4% | +75.9% |
| RBLX per year | −62.2% | +10.6% | −12.5% |
| S&P 500 per year | +12.0% | +23.3% | +12.0% |
| Result | Lagged | Lagged | Lagged |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about RBLX
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 30 analysts published 332 ratings on RBLX. Their latest calls were 43% Buy, 47% Hold and 10% Sell. 16 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $51.47 (range $37.00–$95.00), +0.5% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 88.3% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 60.1% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 48.3% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 56.5% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.8★ | 49.9% |
Other analysts covering RBLX: Martin Yang · Bernie McTernan
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on RBLX are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
RBLX returns by year vs the S&P 500
RBLX beat the S&P 500 in 3 of the 4 full calendar years shown.
| Year | RBLX | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | −46.9% | +11.7% | −58.6% |
| 2025 | +40.0% | +17.7% | +22.3% |
| 2024 | +26.6% | +24.9% | +1.7% |
| 2023 | +60.6% | +26.2% | +34.4% |
| 2022 | −72.4% | −18.2% | −54.2% |
RBLX risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, RBLX had a Sharpe ratio of 0.06 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 64.6% and its beta 1.44: it tended to move about 1.4× as much as the market.
| Metric | RBLX | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −12.5% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 64.6% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.06 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.09 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −77.6% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.44 | 1.00 |
How RBLX behaved in past crashes
RBLX’s deepest fall in the crises below was −76.5% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | RBLX | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 inflation bear market | −76.5% | −25.4% | −$76,530 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −19.5% | −19.0% | −$19,520 |
| Window | RBLX max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −70.8% |
| Last 3 years | −70.8% |
| Last 5 years | −82.8% |
| Last 10 years | −82.8% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with RBLX, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, RBLX’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.34, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.47, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.30 and with gold (GLD) 0.01.
Adding a 5% RBLX position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 16.1%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| MRK | −0.32 | NFLX | 0.46 |
| XOM | −0.29 | APH | 0.46 |
| KO | −0.28 | TSLA | 0.44 |
| BMY | −0.24 | NET | 0.42 |
| VZ | −0.20 | NVDA | 0.42 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest RBLX upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | Target raised Buy | Bernie McTernan |
| Oct 30 | Target cut Buy | Eric Sheridan |
| Sep 28 | Downgrade Hold → Sell | James Heaney CFA |
| Sep 14 | Target raised Buy | Ken Gawrelski |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on RBLX in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get RBLX right?
Of the 477 analyst price targets on RBLX set from 2019 until a year ago, 67.7% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 0.9 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 44 days. The median target sat 18.4% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said RBLX would be by now: a year ago, 13 analysts had a price target on RBLX, and the median of their latest targets was $155.00. On Oct 20, 2026 RBLX closed at $52.32, 66.2% below it.
67.7%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
44 daysmedian time to reach a target
−66.2%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of RBLX | 19 | +0.7% | −13.8% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of RBLX | 24 | −10.8% | −15.2% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on RBLX through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How RBLX moves after earnings
RBLX beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 11 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 1 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 13.0% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 6 of the 12 reports. In 6 of the 11 beats the stock still fell.
11/12earnings beats
±13.0%average move per report
6/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | −$0.26 vs −$0.34 | −2.7% | −29.0% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | −$0.35 vs −$0.41 | −0.6% | −19.8% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | −$0.45 vs −$0.47 | +6.9% | +5.3% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | −$0.37 vs −$0.49 | −20.4% | −15.0% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | −$0.41 vs −$0.36 | −15.1% | +0.1% |
| May 1, 2025 | −$0.32 vs −$0.40 | −9.5% | +10.5% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | −$0.33 vs −$0.45 | −28.0% | −12.2% |
| Oct 31, 2024 | −$0.37 vs −$0.38 | −10.1% | +19.2% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Members of Congress who traded RBLX
As of Oct 20, 2026, 8 members of Congress had disclosed 23 trades in RBLX (11 buys and 12 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Dec 24, 2025.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 24, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 7, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 22, 2025 | Julia Letlow | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 16, 2025 | Julia Letlow | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Valerie Hoyle | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 16, 2025 | James Banks | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 31, 2023 | Daniel Goldman | Buy | $15,001–$50,000 |
| Dec 28, 2022 | Nancy Pelosi | Sale | $100,001–$250,000 |
| May 25, 2022 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
Are RBLX insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, RBLX insiders made no open‑market purchases and 134 sales, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Dec 4, 2023.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 2023 | Bronstein Manuel | Chief Product Officer | $40 |
| Oct 19, 2023 | Bronstein Manuel | Chief Product Officer | $93 |
| Aug 18, 2023 | Bronstein Manuel | Chief Product Officer | $28 |
| Jun 1, 2023 | Bronstein Manuel | Chief Product Officer | $339 |
| Mar 29, 2023 | Bronstein Manuel | Chief Product Officer | $43 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of RBLX is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.30% of RBLX’s float was sold short: 27.6 million shares, or 2.0 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 2.63%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so RBLX is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own RBLX?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 857 institutions reported holding RBLX in 13F filings, down 41 from the quarter before and down from 994 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 80.5% of RBLX’s shares. In the quarter 415 institutions added to their positions and 276 cut them.
85713F holders
119new positions
159positions closed
80.5%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is RBLX diluting shareholders?
RBLX’s diluted share count rose 6.5% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company.
Stock‑based compensation was $1.1 billion in fiscal 2025, 23.1% of revenue. RBLX did not buy back shares in fiscal 2025.
+6.5%share count, 1 year
23.1%stock pay as % of revenue
0.00%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from RBLX’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
RBLX financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, RBLX’s Altman Z‑score was 1.61, in the distress zone (where 180 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 4 out of 9; 88% of scored stocks reach 4 or more.
1.61Altman Z‑score: distress zone
4/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold RBLX?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 29 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held RBLX. Its largest weight is in ARKF (ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF), at 1.97% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of RBLX |
|---|---|---|
| ARKF | ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF | 1.97% |
| FCOM | Fidelity MSCI Communication Services Index ETF | 1.89% |
| FDN | First Trust Dow Jones Internet Index Fund | 1.16% |
| IWP | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF | 0.96% |
| VOT | Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund | 0.64% |
| VXF | Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.34% |
| VO | Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.27% |
| IWR | iShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF | 0.24% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for RBLX
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For RBLX that is QQQ (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other technology stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | +135.9% | 28.0% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | +704.3% | 51.1% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | +64.0% | 26.5% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | +570.0% | 44.7% |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | +1,211% | 51.9% |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | +319.9% | 58.3% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | +611.4% | 64.4% |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | +45.7% | 40.4% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check RBLX with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average RBLX price target is 0.5% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on RBLX say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering RBLX are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
No. RBLX returned −48.8% (−12.5% a year) over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +75.9% (+12.0% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, RBLX (Roblox Corporation) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
RBLX fell −76.5% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, RBLX’s Sharpe ratio was 0.06 and its Sortino ratio 0.09, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
RBLX’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 69.1%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.44.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with RBLX over the last 60 months were MRK (−0.32), XOM (−0.29), KO (−0.28). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.30 and with gold (GLD) 0.01.
RBLX beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 11 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 1 of 12. The stock moved 13.0% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 8 members of Congress had disclosed 23 trades in RBLX (11 buys and 12 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.30% of RBLX’s float was sold short (27.6 million shares, 2.0 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 2.63%.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on RBLX now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on RBLX are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.