How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
StocksInsight
MDB Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
MongoDB, Inc., technology (market value $27.0 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
What changed since Nov 2
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
+3 new ratings+1 analyst started coverage82% Buy ratings (was 83%)25 4★+ analysts covering (was 24)
Key takeaways
- MDB returned −32.3% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.14 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −63.1% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
- Five‑year volatility was 69.4% and beta 1.73.
- 36 analysts rated it in the past year; 82% of their latest calls were Buy.
- MDB beat earnings estimates in 12 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 19.5% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on MDB say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did MDB beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about MDB
- MDB returns by year vs the S&P 500
- MDB risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How MDB behaved in past crashes
- What moves with MDB, and what doesn’t
- Latest MDB upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get MDB right?
- How MDB moves after earnings
- Where MDB’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded MDB
- Are MDB insiders buying or selling?
- How much of MDB is sold short?
- How many institutions own MDB?
- Is MDB diluting shareholders?
- MDB financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold MDB?
- The right benchmark for MDB
- Other technology stocks
- Data and methodology
Did MDB beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, MongoDB, Inc. (MDB) returned −32.3% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 108.2 percentage points, or −7.5% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | MDB | S&P 500 | MDB per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −1.9% | +12.0% | −1.9% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +2.4% | +87.4% | +0.8% | +23.3% | Lagged |
| 5 years | −32.3% | +75.9% | −7.5% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| Period | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| MDB | −1.9% | +2.4% | −32.3% |
| S&P 500 | +12.0% | +87.4% | +75.9% |
| MDB per year | −1.9% | +0.8% | −7.5% |
| S&P 500 per year | +12.0% | +23.3% | +12.0% |
| Result | Lagged | Lagged | Lagged |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about MDB
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 36 analysts published 458 ratings on MDB. Their latest calls were 82% Buy, 18% Hold and 0% Sell. 25 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $456.76 (range $315.00–$560.00), +37.6% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Huff | Stephens | 5.0★ | 50.2% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 58.1% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 55.8% |
| Eric Heath | KeyBanc | 4.9★ | 68.6% |
| William Power | Robert W. Baird | 4.9★ | 59.8% |
Other analysts covering MDB: Miller Jump · Howard Ma · Koji Ikeda · Rudy Kessinger · Mike Cikos · Blair Abernethy
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on MDB are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
MDB returns by year vs the S&P 500
MDB beat the S&P 500 in 6 of the 8 full calendar years shown.
| Year | MDB | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | −15.9% | +11.7% | −27.6% |
| 2025 | +80.3% | +17.7% | +62.6% |
| 2024 | −43.1% | +24.9% | −68.0% |
| 2023 | +107.7% | +26.2% | +81.5% |
| 2022 | −62.8% | −18.2% | −44.6% |
| 2021 | +47.4% | +28.7% | +18.7% |
| 2020 | +172.8% | +18.3% | +154.5% |
| 2019 | +57.2% | +31.2% | +26.0% |
| 2018 | +182.1% | −4.6% | +186.7% |
MDB risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, MDB had a Sharpe ratio of 0.14 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 62.9% and its beta 1.73: it tended to move about 1.7× as much as the market.
| Metric | MDB | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −7.5% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 62.9% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.14 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.20 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −71.2% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.73 | 1.00 |
How MDB behaved in past crashes
MDB’s deepest fall in the crises below was −63.1% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | MDB | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −24.9% | −20.2% | −$24,890 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −45.0% | −34.1% | −$45,040 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −63.1% | −25.4% | −$63,070 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −50.6% | −19.0% | −$50,560 |
| Window | MDB max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −48.7% |
| Last 3 years | −70.9% |
| Last 5 years | −76.5% |
| Last 10 years | −76.5% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with MDB, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, MDB’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.43, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.43, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.25 and with gold (GLD) 0.09.
Adding a 5% MDB position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 16.3%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | −0.18 | SNOW | 0.58 |
| T | −0.14 | ADBE | 0.49 |
| AMGN | −0.11 | CRM | 0.48 |
| COP | −0.10 | SPGI | 0.46 |
| MPC | −0.09 | PANW | 0.46 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest MDB upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 8 | Target raised Buy | Patrick Colville |
| Oct 7 | New coverage Buy | Daniel Ives |
| Sep 30 | Target cut Hold | Karl Keirstead |
| Sep 30 | Target cut Buy | Keith Bachman |
| Sep 30 | Target cut Buy | Firoz Valliji |
| Sep 30 | Target cut Buy | Brad Reback |
| Sep 29 | Target cut Buy | Rudy Kessinger |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on MDB in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get MDB right?
Of the 606 analyst price targets on MDB set from 2019 until a year ago, 87.6% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 19.0 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 66 days. The median target sat 20.7% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said MDB would be by now: a year ago, 14 analysts had a price target on MDB, and the median of their latest targets was $400.00. On Oct 20, 2026 MDB closed at $366.18, 8.5% below it.
87.6%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
66 daysmedian time to reach a target
−8.5%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of MDB | 16 | +3.1% | +1.6% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of MDB | 10 | −10.3% | −6.2% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on MDB through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How MDB moves after earnings
MDB beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Sep 1, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 19.5% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 5 of the 12 reports. In 7 of the 12 beats the stock still fell.
12/12earnings beats
±19.5%average move per report
5/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1, 2026 | $1.90 vs $1.62 | +5.0% | −17.2% |
| May 28, 2026 | $1.32 vs $1.19 | +3.5% | +14.0% |
| Mar 2, 2026 | $1.65 vs $1.48 | +3.7% | −23.1% |
| Dec 1, 2025 | $1.32 vs $0.81 | +5.8% | +20.9% |
| Aug 26, 2025 | $1.00 vs $0.67 | +6.7% | +35.4% |
| Jun 4, 2025 | $1.00 vs $0.67 | +4.0% | +16.3% |
| Mar 5, 2025 | $1.28 vs $0.66 | +5.3% | −24.1% |
| Dec 9, 2024 | $1.16 vs $0.68 | +6.5% | −15.3% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where MDB’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2026 (the year to Jan 31, 2026), MDB’s largest reported region was Americas, with 60.8% of its $2.5 billion revenue. By region: Americas 60.8%; Emea 27.6%; Asia Pacific 11.6%.
By business, the largest segment was MongoDB Atlas Related, with 73.4% of $2.5 billion revenue (+28.7% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| MongoDB Atlas Related | $1.8 billion | 73.4% | +28.7% |
| Other Subscription | $578.1 million | 23.5% | +7.3% |
| Service | $77.8 million | 3.2% | +24.4% |
From MDB’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2026 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded MDB
As of Oct 20, 2026, 3 members of Congress had disclosed 24 trades in MDB (13 buys and 11 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Aug 10, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 14, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Oct 17, 2024 | Josh Gottheimer | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 17, 2024 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 20, 2024 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Feb 8, 2024 | Josh Gottheimer | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
One trade in MDB disclosed in the last 30 days is in Exent Radar.
Are MDB insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, MDB insiders made no open‑market purchases and 133 sales, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on May 8, 2018.
After the 4 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, MDB beat the S&P 500 by an average of 174.8 percentage points over the next 12 months; every one was followed by a beat (a small sample). Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 8, 2018 | Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | 10 percent owner | $48.3 million |
| May 3, 2018 | Whale Rock Capital Management LLC | 10 percent owner | $17.3 million |
| Oct 23, 2017 | Gordon Michael Lawrence | Chief Financial Officer | $24,000 |
| Oct 23, 2017 | Eisenberg Meagen | Chief Marketing Officer | $24,000 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of MDB is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.60% of MDB’s float was sold short: 2.8 million shares, or 1.0 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 3.79%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so MDB is less heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own MDB?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 951 institutions reported holding MDB in 13F filings, up 68 from the quarter before and up from 767 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 93.1% of MDB’s shares. In the quarter 502 institutions added to their positions and 276 cut them.
95113F holders
170new positions
111positions closed
93.1%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is MDB diluting shareholders?
MDB’s diluted share count rose 37.7% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2026 and rose 9.0% in fiscal 2026 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $550.5 million in fiscal 2026, 22.3% of revenue. MDB spent $400.3 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 1.11% of its market value; stock pay equaled 137.5% of the buybacks.
+9.0%share count, 1 year
+37.7%share count, 5 years
22.3%stock pay as % of revenue
1.11%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from MDB’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
MDB financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, MDB’s Altman Z‑score was 22.00, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 7 out of 9; 40% of scored stocks reach 7 or more.
22.00Altman Z‑score: safe zone
7/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold MDB?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 40 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held MDB. Its largest weight is in QTUM (Defiance Quantum ETF), at 1.27% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of MDB |
|---|---|---|
| QTUM | Defiance Quantum ETF | 1.27% |
| IWP | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF | 0.74% |
| VOT | Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund | 0.63% |
| VXF | Vanguard Extended Market Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.34% |
| VO | Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.26% |
| JQUA | JPMorgan U.S. Quality Factor ETF | 0.26% |
| IWR | iShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF | 0.20% |
| FLSP | Franklin Systematic Style Premia ETF | 0.14% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for MDB
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For MDB that is QQQ (the Nasdaq‑100). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other technology stocks
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | +135.9% | 28.0% |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corporation | +704.3% | 51.1% |
| MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | +64.0% | 26.5% |
| AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | +570.0% | 44.7% |
| MU | Micron Technology, Inc. | +1,211% | 51.9% |
| AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | +319.9% | 58.3% |
| PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | +611.4% | 64.4% |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | +45.7% | 40.4% |
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check MDB with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average MDB price target is 37.6% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on MDB say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering MDB are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
No. MDB returned −32.3% (−7.5% a year) over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +75.9% (+12.0% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, MDB (MongoDB, Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, MDB (MongoDB, Inc.) is not one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
MDB fell −45.0% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
MDB fell −63.1% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, MDB’s Sharpe ratio was 0.14 and its Sortino ratio 0.20, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
MDB’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 69.4%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.73.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with MDB over the last 60 months were XOM (−0.18), T (−0.14), AMGN (−0.11). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.25 and with gold (GLD) 0.09.
MDB beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Sep 1, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 12 of 12. The stock moved 19.5% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 3 members of Congress had disclosed 24 trades in MDB (13 buys and 11 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 3.60% of MDB’s float was sold short (2.8 million shares, 1.0 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 3.79%.
Yes. MDB’s diluted share count rose 37.7% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2026 and rose 9.0% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 22.3% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $400.3 million.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on MDB now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on MDB are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.