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COIN Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

Coinbase Global, Inc., financial services (market value $36.2 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Oct 30, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 26

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

+14 new ratings+5 analysts started coverage59% Buy ratings (was 63%)39 analysts covering (was 34)20 4★+ analysts covering (was 18)−58.2% 1‑year return through Oct 30 (was −44.8%)

Key takeaways

  • COIN returned −55.1% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.18 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −81.3% in the 2022 inflation bear market (S&P 500: −25.4%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 86.3% and beta 3.34.
  • 39 analysts rated it in the past year; 59% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • COIN beat earnings estimates in 6 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 8.7% on average, up or down, around each report.

What do the best‑ranked analysts on COIN say now? See it in Exent Gems →

Did COIN beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) returned −55.1% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 131.0 percentage points, or −14.8% a year against +12.0%.

PeriodCOINS&P 500COIN per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year−58.2%+12.0%−58.2%+12.0%Lagged
3 years+86.1%+87.4%+23.0%+23.3%Lagged
5 years−55.1%+75.9%−14.8%+12.0%Lagged
Period1 year3 years5 years
COIN−58.2%+86.1%−55.1%
S&P 500+12.0%+87.4%+75.9%
COIN per year−58.2%+23.0%−14.8%
S&P 500 per year+12.0%+23.3%+12.0%
ResultLaggedLaggedLagged

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

COIN is in the S&P 500 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.

What Wall Street analysts say about COIN

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 39 analysts published 391 ratings on COIN. Their latest calls were 59% Buy, 36% Hold and 5% Sell. 20 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $203.04 (range $110.00–$330.00), +48.4% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
Devin RyanCitizens JMP5.0★34.8%
??????4.9★54.2%
??????4.9★62.6%
??????4.9★55.3%
Patrick MoleyPiper Sandler4.9★69.8%

Other analysts covering COIN: Owen Lau · Chris Brendler · Gautam Chhugani · Andrew Jeffrey · Stephen Glagola · Benjamin Budish

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on COIN are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.

COIN returns by year vs the S&P 500

COIN beat the S&P 500 in 2 of the 4 full calendar years shown.

YearCOINS&P 500Difference
2026 (to Oct 30, 2026)−36.5%+11.7%−48.2%
2025−8.9%+17.7%−26.6%
2024+42.8%+24.9%+17.9%
2023+391.4%+26.2%+365.2%
2022−86.0%−18.2%−67.8%

COIN risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, COIN had a Sharpe ratio of 0.18 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 88.1% and its beta 3.34: it tended to move about 3.3× as much as the market.

MetricCOINS&P 500
Annual return−14.8%+12.0%
Volatility (annualized)88.1%15.5%
Sharpe ratio0.180.58
Sortino ratio0.300.91
Max drawdown (month-end)−88.9%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5003.341.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How COIN behaved in past crashes

COIN’s deepest fall in the crises below was −81.3% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisCOINS&P 500Loss on $100,000
2022 inflation bear market−81.3%−25.4%−$81,270
2025 tariff selloff−41.4%−19.0%−$41,440
WindowCOIN max drawdown
Last 1 year−57.0%
Last 3 years−67.4%
Last 5 years−90.9%
Last 10 years−90.9%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with COIN, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, COIN’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.59, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.61, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.32 and with gold (GLD) 0.09.

Adding a 5% COIN position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 17.6%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
KO−0.22NET0.64
JNJ−0.21AMZN0.62
MRK−0.21DIS0.62
ABBV−0.21KKR0.60
AMGN−0.20PLTR0.60

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

Latest COIN upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

DateRating and targetAnalyst
Nov 3Target cut
Buy
Target $221, was $237
Stephen Glagola
KBW
Nov 2Target cut
Buy
Target $177, was $203
Craig Siegenthaler
Bank of America Securities
Oct 30Target cut
Hold
Target $150, was $170
Patrick Moley
Piper Sandler
Oct 30Target cut
Sell
Target $120, was $149
Benjamin Budish
Barclays
Oct 30Target cut
Buy
Target $197, was $224
Owen Lau
Clear Street
Oct 30Target cut
Buy
Target $275, was $300
Joseph Vafi
Canaccord Genuity
Oct 30Target cut
Buy
Target $185, was $200
Chris Brendler
Rosenblatt Securities
Oct 9Target cut
Buy
Target $280, was $325
Devin Ryan
Citizens JMP
Oct 7Target raised
Sell
Target $149, was $95
Benjamin Budish
Barclays
Oct 7Target raised
Buy
Target $244, was $219
James Yaro
Goldman Sachs
Oct 5Target raised
Buy
Target $203, was $174
Craig Siegenthaler
Bank of America Securities
Oct 5New coverage
Buy
Target $237
Tim Switzer
KBW

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on COIN in the 5 weeks to Oct 7, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get COIN right?

Of the 614 analyst price targets on COIN set from 2019 until a year ago, 64.3% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 4.3 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 33 days. The median target sat 12.8% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said COIN would be by now: a year ago, 19 analysts had a price target on COIN, and the median of their latest targets was $400.00. On Oct 20, 2026 COIN closed at $170.77, 57.3% below it.

64.3%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
33 daysmedian time to reach a target
−57.3%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of COIN20+6.7%+2.9%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of COIN26−1.2%+11.5%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on COIN through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How COIN moves after earnings

COIN beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 6 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 6 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 8.7% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 6 of the 12 reports. In 3 of the 6 beats the stock still fell.

6/12earnings beats
±8.7%average move per report
6/12reports followed by a rise
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Jul 30, 2026−$1.36 vs −$0.44−5.6%−8.6%
May 7, 2026−$0.24 vs $0.36−4.9%+1.6%
Feb 12, 2026−$2.49 vs $0.99−1.5%+7.3%
Oct 30, 2025$1.44 vs $1.20+5.5%−1.4%
Jul 31, 2025$5.14 vs $1.19−5.7%−16.6%
May 8, 2025$0.24 vs $1.94−1.8%+1.4%
Feb 14, 2025$4.66 vs $2.26+23.4%−11.2%
Oct 30, 2024$0.28 vs $0.41−4.4%−18.4%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where COIN’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), COIN’s largest reported region was the United States, with 83.7% of its $7.2 billion revenue. By region: United States 83.7%; Rest of the World 16.3%.

By business, the largest segment was Bank Servicing, Consumer, Net, with 47.9% of $6.9 billion revenue (−3.1% on the year before).

  • United States83.7%
  • Rest of the World16.3%
SegmentRevenueShareGrowth
Bank Servicing, Consumer, Net$3.3 billion47.9%−3.1%
Subscription and Circulation, Stablecoin$1.3 billion19.5%+48.1%
Subscription and Circulation, Blockchain Infrastructure Service$677.4 million9.8%−4.0%
Subscription and Circulation, Other$554.8 million8.0%+95.8%
Bank Servicing, Institutional$479.7 million6.9%+38.8%
Other Revenue$297.9 million4.3%+10.0%
Bank Servicing, Other$252.9 million3.6%+20.3%

From COIN’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded COIN

As of Oct 20, 2026, 11 members of Congress had disclosed 36 trades in COIN (20 buys and 16 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Aug 18, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Aug 18, 2026Gilbert CisnerosSale$1,001–$15,000
Aug 10, 2026Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
Jul 17, 2026Gilbert CisnerosBuy$1,001–$15,000
Jun 16, 2026Gilbert CisnerosSale$1,001–$15,000
Apr 14, 2026Gilbert CisnerosBuy$1,001–$15,000
Mar 27, 2026Alan ArmstrongBuy$1,001–$15,000
Feb 18, 2026???Sale$1,001–$15,000
Feb 12, 2026Gilbert CisnerosSale$1,001–$15,000
Jan 30, 2026Gilbert CisnerosBuy$1,001–$15,000
Dec 24, 2025Gilbert CisnerosSale$1,001–$15,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. Locked names belong to the 10 members whose stock buys did best; who they are is in Exent Radar. See every member’s disclosed trades

2 trades in COIN disclosed in the last 30 days are in Exent Radar.

Are COIN insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, COIN insiders made no open‑market purchases and 107 sales, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on May 10, 2023.

After the 32 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, COIN beat the S&P 500 by an average of 90.8 percentage points over the next 12 months; 63% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

Q1 ’25
Q2 ’25
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
Q4 ’26
DateInsiderRoleValue
May 10, 2023Ehrsam Frederick Ernest IIIDirector$3.2 million
May 9, 2023Ehrsam Frederick Ernest IIIDirector$2.4 million
Feb 7, 2023Lutke TobiasDirector$361,832
Jan 31, 2023Lutke TobiasDirector$380,128
Jan 24, 2023Lutke TobiasDirector$359,561

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of COIN is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 11.09% of COIN’s float was sold short: 24.4 million shares, or 2.5 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 5.93%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so COIN is more heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 202611.79%
  • May 29, 202611.09%
  • Jun 30, 202611.31%
  • Jul 31, 20269.91%
  • Aug 31, 202612.46%
  • Sep 30, 202611.09%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own COIN?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,250 institutions reported holding COIN in 13F filings, down 66 from the quarter before and down from 1,392 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 56.0% of COIN’s shares. In the quarter 472 institutions added to their positions and 466 cut them.

1,25013F holders
113new positions
180positions closed
56.0%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is COIN diluting shareholders?

COIN’s diluted share count rose 5.1% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company.

Stock‑based compensation was $839.4 million in fiscal 2025, 11.7% of revenue. COIN spent $790.2 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 1.74% of its market value; stock pay equaled 106.2% of the buybacks.

+5.1%share count, 1 year
11.7%stock pay as % of revenue
1.74%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from COIN’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

COIN financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, COIN’s Piotroski F‑score was 3 out of 9; 94% of scored stocks reach 3 or more. The Altman Z‑score is not meaningful for financial services companies, so it is left out.

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What COIN talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Jul 30, 2026), COIN’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 6 times, against 17 on the call before (May 7, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was ai agents (12). Tariffs and recession did not come up.

MentionsJul ’26May ’26Feb ’26Oct ’25
AI61773
AI agents122162
Data centers0000
Tariffs0000
China0010
Recession0000
  • AI
    Jul ’26
    6
    May ’26
    17
    Feb ’26
    7
    Oct ’25
    3
  • AI agents
    Jul ’26
    12
    May ’26
    21
    Feb ’26
    6
    Oct ’25
    2
  • Data centers
    Jul ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Tariffs
    Jul ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • China
    Jul ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    1
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Recession
    Jul ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold COIN?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 45 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held COIN. Its largest weight is in ARKF (ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF), at 5.52% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of COIN
ARKFARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF5.52%
ARKKARK Innovation ETF4.39%
VOTVanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund0.93%
XLFState Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF0.48%
VFHVanguard Financials Index Fund0.47%
IWSiShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF0.37%
VOVanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares0.36%
IWRiShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF0.28%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

How much is COIN’s CEO paid?

Brian Armstrong, COIN’s Chairman of the Board of Directors & Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $9.7 million for fiscal 2025, up 34.2% from $7.2 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Apr 24, 2026. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so COIN’s CEO earned less than most.

Pay componentAmountShare of total
Salary$1.0 million10.3%
Other$8.7 million89.7%
Other top executivesRoleTotal pay, 2025
Emilie ChoiPresident & Chief Operating Officer$22.2 million
Paul GrewalChief Legal Officer & Secretary$20.7 million
Alesia HaasChief Financial Officer$14.2 million
Lawrence BrockChief People Officer$9.7 million

Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500

The right benchmark for COIN

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For COIN that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other financial services stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc.+89.0%17.2%
JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co.+124.6%24.4%
VVisa Inc.+102.8%22.7%
MAMastercard Incorporated+95.9%23.9%
BACBank of America Corporation+18.3%26.6%
MSMorgan Stanley+110.1%28.6%
GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.+144.3%28.6%
WFCWells Fargo & Company+84.1%30.1%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Check COIN with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average COIN price target is 48.4% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on COIN say now in Exent Gems.

  1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
  2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering COIN are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
  3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

No. COIN returned −55.1% (−14.8% a year) over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +75.9% (+12.0% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, COIN (Coinbase Global, Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.

No. As of Oct 20, 2026, COIN (Coinbase Global, Inc.) is not one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.

COIN fell −81.3% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, COIN’s Sharpe ratio was 0.18 and its Sortino ratio 0.30, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.

COIN’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 86.3%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 3.34.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with COIN over the last 60 months were KO (−0.22), JNJ (−0.21), MRK (−0.21). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.32 and with gold (GLD) 0.09.

COIN beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 6 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 6 of 12. The stock moved 8.7% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.

Brian Armstrong, COIN’s Chairman of the Board of Directors & Chief Executive Officer, received $9.7 million in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $1.0 million salary and $0 in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Apr 24, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 11 members of Congress had disclosed 36 trades in COIN (20 buys and 16 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 11.09% of COIN’s float was sold short (24.4 million shares, 2.5 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 5.93%.

What do the best‑ranked analysts say on COIN now?

Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on COIN are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.

See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access

Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.