How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
Coinbase Global, Inc., financial services (market value $36.2 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Oct 30, 2026.
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on COIN say now? See it in Exent Gems →
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) returned −55.1% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 131.0 percentage points, or −14.8% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | COIN | S&P 500 | COIN per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | −58.2% | +12.0% | −58.2% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| 3 years | +86.1% | +87.4% | +23.0% | +23.3% | Lagged |
| 5 years | −55.1% | +75.9% | −14.8% | +12.0% | Lagged |
| Period | 1 year | 3 years | 5 years |
|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | −58.2% | +86.1% | −55.1% |
| S&P 500 | +12.0% | +87.4% | +75.9% |
| COIN per year | −58.2% | +23.0% | −14.8% |
| S&P 500 per year | +12.0% | +23.3% | +12.0% |
| Result | Lagged | Lagged | Lagged |
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
COIN is in the S&P 500 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 39 analysts published 391 ratings on COIN. Their latest calls were 59% Buy, 36% Hold and 5% Sell. 20 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $203.04 (range $110.00–$330.00), +48.4% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Ryan | Citizens JMP | 5.0★ | 34.8% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 54.2% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 62.6% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 55.3% |
| Patrick Moley | Piper Sandler | 4.9★ | 69.8% |
Other analysts covering COIN: Owen Lau · Chris Brendler · Gautam Chhugani · Andrew Jeffrey · Stephen Glagola · Benjamin Budish
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on COIN are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
COIN beat the S&P 500 in 2 of the 4 full calendar years shown.
| Year | COIN | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | −36.5% | +11.7% | −48.2% |
| 2025 | −8.9% | +17.7% | −26.6% |
| 2024 | +42.8% | +24.9% | +17.9% |
| 2023 | +391.4% | +26.2% | +365.2% |
| 2022 | −86.0% | −18.2% | −67.8% |
Over 5 years, COIN had a Sharpe ratio of 0.18 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 88.1% and its beta 3.34: it tended to move about 3.3× as much as the market.
| Metric | COIN | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | −14.8% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 88.1% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.18 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 0.30 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −88.9% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 3.34 | 1.00 |
Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.
COIN’s deepest fall in the crises below was −81.3% in the 2022 inflation bear market, against −25.4% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | COIN | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 inflation bear market | −81.3% | −25.4% | −$81,270 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −41.4% | −19.0% | −$41,440 |
| Window | COIN max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −57.0% |
| Last 3 years | −67.4% |
| Last 5 years | −90.9% |
| Last 10 years | −90.9% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, COIN’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.59, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.61, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.32 and with gold (GLD) 0.09.
Adding a 5% COIN position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 17.6%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| KO | −0.22 | NET | 0.64 |
| JNJ | −0.21 | AMZN | 0.62 |
| MRK | −0.21 | DIS | 0.62 |
| ABBV | −0.21 | KKR | 0.60 |
| AMGN | −0.20 | PLTR | 0.60 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3 | Target cut Buy | Stephen Glagola |
| Nov 2 | Target cut Buy | Craig Siegenthaler |
| Oct 30 | Target cut Hold | Patrick Moley |
| Oct 30 | Target cut Sell | Benjamin Budish |
| Oct 30 | Target cut Buy | Owen Lau |
| Oct 30 | Target cut Buy | Joseph Vafi |
| Oct 30 | Target cut Buy | Chris Brendler |
| Oct 9 | Target cut Buy | Devin Ryan |
| Oct 7 | Target raised Sell | Benjamin Budish |
| Oct 7 | Target raised Buy | James Yaro |
| Oct 5 | Target raised Buy | Craig Siegenthaler |
| Oct 5 | New coverage Buy | Tim Switzer |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on COIN in the 5 weeks to Oct 7, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Of the 614 analyst price targets on COIN set from 2019 until a year ago, 64.3% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 4.3 points below the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 33 days. The median target sat 12.8% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said COIN would be by now: a year ago, 19 analysts had a price target on COIN, and the median of their latest targets was $400.00. On Oct 20, 2026 COIN closed at $170.77, 57.3% below it.
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of COIN | 20 | +6.7% | +2.9% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of COIN | 26 | −1.2% | +11.5% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on COIN through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
COIN beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 6 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 6 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 8.7% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 6 of the 12 reports. In 3 of the 6 beats the stock still fell.
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | −$1.36 vs −$0.44 | −5.6% | −8.6% |
| May 7, 2026 | −$0.24 vs $0.36 | −4.9% | +1.6% |
| Feb 12, 2026 | −$2.49 vs $0.99 | −1.5% | +7.3% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $1.44 vs $1.20 | +5.5% | −1.4% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $5.14 vs $1.19 | −5.7% | −16.6% |
| May 8, 2025 | $0.24 vs $1.94 | −1.8% | +1.4% |
| Feb 14, 2025 | $4.66 vs $2.26 | +23.4% | −11.2% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $0.28 vs $0.41 | −4.4% | −18.4% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), COIN’s largest reported region was the United States, with 83.7% of its $7.2 billion revenue. By region: United States 83.7%; Rest of the World 16.3%.
By business, the largest segment was Bank Servicing, Consumer, Net, with 47.9% of $6.9 billion revenue (−3.1% on the year before).
| Segment | Revenue | Share | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bank Servicing, Consumer, Net | $3.3 billion | 47.9% | −3.1% |
| Subscription and Circulation, Stablecoin | $1.3 billion | 19.5% | +48.1% |
| Subscription and Circulation, Blockchain Infrastructure Service | $677.4 million | 9.8% | −4.0% |
| Subscription and Circulation, Other | $554.8 million | 8.0% | +95.8% |
| Bank Servicing, Institutional | $479.7 million | 6.9% | +38.8% |
| Other Revenue | $297.9 million | 4.3% | +10.0% |
| Bank Servicing, Other | $252.9 million | 3.6% | +20.3% |
From COIN’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 11 members of Congress had disclosed 36 trades in COIN (20 buys and 16 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Aug 18, 2026.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jun 16, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 14, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Alan Armstrong | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Feb 18, 2026 | ??? | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Gilbert Cisneros | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Gilbert Cisneros | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. Locked names belong to the 10 members whose stock buys did best; who they are is in Exent Radar. See every member’s disclosed trades
2 trades in COIN disclosed in the last 30 days are in Exent Radar.
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, COIN insiders made no open‑market purchases and 107 sales, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on May 10, 2023.
After the 32 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, COIN beat the S&P 500 by an average of 90.8 percentage points over the next 12 months; 63% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2023 | Ehrsam Frederick Ernest III | Director | $3.2 million |
| May 9, 2023 | Ehrsam Frederick Ernest III | Director | $2.4 million |
| Feb 7, 2023 | Lutke Tobias | Director | $361,832 |
| Jan 31, 2023 | Lutke Tobias | Director | $380,128 |
| Jan 24, 2023 | Lutke Tobias | Director | $359,561 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 11.09% of COIN’s float was sold short: 24.4 million shares, or 2.5 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 5.93%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so COIN is more heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,250 institutions reported holding COIN in 13F filings, down 66 from the quarter before and down from 1,392 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 56.0% of COIN’s shares. In the quarter 472 institutions added to their positions and 466 cut them.
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
COIN’s diluted share count rose 5.1% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company.
Stock‑based compensation was $839.4 million in fiscal 2025, 11.7% of revenue. COIN spent $790.2 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 1.74% of its market value; stock pay equaled 106.2% of the buybacks.
Weighted‑average diluted shares from COIN’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, COIN’s Piotroski F‑score was 3 out of 9; 94% of scored stocks reach 3 or more. The Altman Z‑score is not meaningful for financial services companies, so it is left out.
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
On its latest earnings call (Jul 30, 2026), COIN’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 6 times, against 17 on the call before (May 7, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. After AI, the most mentioned topic was ai agents (12). Tariffs and recession did not come up.
| Mentions | Jul ’26 | May ’26 | Feb ’26 | Oct ’25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | 6 | 17 | 7 | 3 |
| AI agents | 12 | 21 | 6 | 2 |
| Data centers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tariffs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| China | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| Recession | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 45 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held COIN. Its largest weight is in ARKF (ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF), at 5.52% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of COIN |
|---|---|---|
| ARKF | ARK Blockchain & Fintech Innovation ETF | 5.52% |
| ARKK | ARK Innovation ETF | 4.39% |
| VOT | Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund | 0.93% |
| XLF | State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF | 0.48% |
| VFH | Vanguard Financials Index Fund | 0.47% |
| IWS | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF | 0.37% |
| VO | Vanguard Mid-Cap Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.36% |
| IWR | iShares Russell Mid-Cap ETF | 0.28% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
Brian Armstrong, COIN’s Chairman of the Board of Directors & Chief Executive Officer, received total pay of $9.7 million for fiscal 2025, up 34.2% from $7.2 million for fiscal 2024, according to the company’s proxy statement filed with the SEC on Apr 24, 2026. The median CEO pay across the 378 S&P 500 companies Exent tracks was $17.2 million, so COIN’s CEO earned less than most.
| Pay component | Amount | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Salary | $1.0 million | 10.3% |
| Other | $8.7 million | 89.7% |
| Other top executives | Role | Total pay, 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Emilie Choi | President & Chief Operating Officer | $22.2 million |
| Paul Grewal | Chief Legal Officer & Secretary | $20.7 million |
| Alesia Haas | Chief Financial Officer | $14.2 million |
| Lawrence Brock | Chief People Officer | $9.7 million |
Figures from the summary compensation table of the proxy statement; awards count at their grant‑date value, so one large multi‑year grant can make a single year stand out. CEO pay across the S&P 500
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For COIN that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
| Ticker | Name | 5‑year return | Volatility (5y) |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc. | +89.0% | 17.2% |
| JPM | JPMorgan Chase & Co. | +124.6% | 24.4% |
| V | Visa Inc. | +102.8% | 22.7% |
| MA | Mastercard Incorporated | +95.9% | 23.9% |
| BAC | Bank of America Corporation | +18.3% | 26.6% |
| MS | Morgan Stanley | +110.1% | 28.6% |
| GS | The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | +144.3% | 28.6% |
| WFC | Wells Fargo & Company | +84.1% | 30.1% |
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Wall Street’s average COIN price target is 48.4% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on COIN say now in Exent Gems.
No. COIN returned −55.1% (−14.8% a year) over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +75.9% (+12.0% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, COIN (Coinbase Global, Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, COIN (Coinbase Global, Inc.) is not one of the 101 stocks in the Nasdaq-100.
COIN fell −81.3% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, COIN’s Sharpe ratio was 0.18 and its Sortino ratio 0.30, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
COIN’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 86.3%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 3.34.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with COIN over the last 60 months were KO (−0.22), JNJ (−0.21), MRK (−0.21). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.32 and with gold (GLD) 0.09.
COIN beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 6 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 6 of 12. The stock moved 8.7% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Brian Armstrong, COIN’s Chairman of the Board of Directors & Chief Executive Officer, received $9.7 million in total pay for fiscal 2025, including a $1.0 million salary and $0 in stock and option awards valued at grant, according to the proxy statement filed with the SEC on Apr 24, 2026. The median S&P 500 CEO received $17.2 million.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 11 members of Congress had disclosed 36 trades in COIN (20 buys and 16 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 11.09% of COIN’s float was sold short (24.4 million shares, 2.5 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 5.93%.
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on COIN are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.