How Can I Beat the S&P 500? What the Evidence Says
The honest answer to the most asked question in investing: how many people beat the index, why it is so hard, why investors trail even their own funds, and how daily market context fits in.
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XPO Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History
XPO, Inc., industrials (market value $22.3 billion): how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Returns to Oct 30, 2026; analyst data as of Nov 9, 2026.
What changed since Nov 2
Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.
+4 new ratings83% Buy ratings (was 76%)
Key takeaways
- XPO returned +271.9% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it beat the index.
- Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.69 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
- Its deepest crisis drawdown was −61.2% in the 2018 trade-war selloff (S&P 500: −20.2%).
- Five‑year volatility was 46.5% and beta 1.91.
- 25 analysts rated it in the past year; 83% of their latest calls were Buy.
- XPO beat earnings estimates in 12 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 8.5% on average, up or down, around each report.
What do the best‑ranked analysts on XPO say now? See it in Exent Gems →
In this article
- Did XPO beat the S&P 500?
- What Wall Street analysts say about XPO
- XPO returns by year vs the S&P 500
- XPO risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
- How XPO behaved in past crashes
- What moves with XPO, and what doesn’t
- Latest XPO upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
- Do analysts get XPO right?
- How XPO moves after earnings
- Where XPO’s revenue comes from
- Members of Congress who traded XPO
- Are XPO insiders buying or selling?
- How much of XPO is sold short?
- How many institutions own XPO?
- Is XPO diluting shareholders?
- XPO financial health scores
- Which ETFs hold XPO?
- The right benchmark for XPO
- Other industrials stocks
- Data and methodology
Did XPO beat the S&P 500?
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, XPO, Inc. (XPO) returned +271.9% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It beat the index by 196.0 percentage points, or +30.0% a year against +12.0%.
| Period | XPO | S&P 500 | XPO per year | S&P 500 per year | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | +31.8% | +12.0% | +31.8% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 3 years | +150.1% | +87.4% | +35.7% | +23.3% | Beat |
| 5 years | +271.9% | +75.9% | +30.0% | +12.0% | Beat |
| 10 years | +1,564% | +316.3% | +32.5% | +15.3% | Beat |
- 1 year
- XPO
- +31.8%
- S&P 500
- +12.0%
- XPO per year
- +31.8%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 3 years
- XPO
- +150.1%
- S&P 500
- +87.4%
- XPO per year
- +35.7%
- S&P 500 per year
- +23.3%
- Result
- Beat
- 5 years
- XPO
- +271.9%
- S&P 500
- +75.9%
- XPO per year
- +30.0%
- S&P 500 per year
- +12.0%
- Result
- Beat
- 10 years
- XPO
- +1,564%
- S&P 500
- +316.3%
- XPO per year
- +32.5%
- S&P 500 per year
- +15.3%
- Result
- Beat
Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.
What Wall Street analysts say about XPO
In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 25 analysts published 298 ratings on XPO. Their latest calls were 83% Buy, 13% Hold and 4% Sell. 13 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.
The consensus 12‑month price target was $227.31 (range $115.00–$275.00), +20.8% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?
| Top‑ranked analyst covering | Firm | Stars | Price‑target hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Seidl | TD Cowen | 5.0★ | 55.6% |
| Patrick Brown | Raymond James | 5.0★ | 55.1% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 56.8% |
| ??? | ??? | 5.0★ | 56.0% |
| ??? | ??? | 4.9★ | 53.7% |
Other analysts covering XPO: Christopher Kuhn · Scott Schneeberger · Lucas Servera · Stephanie Moore · Thomas Wadewitz
Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on XPO are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.
The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.
XPO returns by year vs the S&P 500
XPO beat the S&P 500 in 5 of the 9 full calendar years shown.
| Year | XPO | S&P 500 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 (to Oct 30, 2026) | +39.5% | +11.7% | +27.8% |
| 2025 | +3.6% | +17.7% | −14.1% |
| 2024 | +49.7% | +24.9% | +24.8% |
| 2023 | +163.1% | +26.2% | +136.9% |
| 2022 | −27.6% | −18.2% | −9.4% |
| 2021 | +11.6% | +28.7% | −17.1% |
| 2020 | +49.5% | +18.3% | +31.2% |
| 2019 | +39.7% | +31.2% | +8.5% |
| 2018 | −37.7% | −4.6% | −33.1% |
| 2017 | +112.3% | +21.7% | +90.6% |
XPO risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility
Over 5 years, XPO had a Sharpe ratio of 0.69 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned more return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 49.5% and its beta 1.91: it tended to move about 1.9× as much as the market.
| Metric | XPO | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Annual return | +30.0% | +12.0% |
| Volatility (annualized) | 49.5% | 15.5% |
| Sharpe ratio | 0.69 | 0.58 |
| Sortino ratio | 1.38 | 0.91 |
| Max drawdown (month-end) | −48.1% | −23.9% |
| Beta to the S&P 500 | 1.91 | 1.00 |
How XPO behaved in past crashes
XPO’s deepest fall in the crises below was −61.2% in the 2018 trade-war selloff, against −20.2% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.
| Crisis | XPO | S&P 500 | Loss on $100,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global financial crisis (2007–09) | −52.8% | −56.5% | −$52,780 |
| 2018 trade-war selloff | −61.2% | −20.2% | −$61,160 |
| COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020) | −59.0% | −34.1% | −$58,960 |
| 2022 inflation bear market | −46.0% | −25.4% | −$45,960 |
| 2025 tariff selloff | −33.4% | −19.0% | −$33,440 |
| Window | XPO max drawdown |
|---|---|
| Last 1 year | −15.6% |
| Last 3 years | −42.2% |
| Last 5 years | −53.2% |
| Last 10 years | −64.5% |
Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.
What moves with XPO, and what doesn’t
Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, XPO’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.60, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.47, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.37 and with gold (GLD) 0.21.
Adding a 5% XPO position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 16.3%.
| Least correlated large caps | Correlation | Most correlated large caps | Correlation |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRWD | 0.00 | EQIX | 0.64 |
| PANW | 0.00 | CSX | 0.60 |
| PFE | 0.02 | MAR | 0.56 |
| REGN | 0.04 | HWM | 0.55 |
| MRNA | 0.04 | EMR | 0.55 |
Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.
Latest XPO upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes
| Date | Rating and target | Analyst |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | Target cut Buy | Thomas Wadewitz |
| Oct 30 | Target raised Buy | Jason Seidl |
| Oct 30 | Target raised Buy | Patrick Brown |
| Oct 15 | Target cut Buy | Patrick Brown |
| Oct 8 | Target cut Buy | J. Bruce Chan |
| Oct 7 | Target cut Buy | Lucas Servera |
| Oct 5 | Target cut Buy | Brian Ossenbeck |
| Oct 2 | Target cut Hold | Harrison Bauer |
| Oct 1 | Target raised Buy | Ken Hoexter |
| Sep 10 | New coverage Buy | David Vernon |
Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on XPO in the 5 weeks to Oct 12, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.
Do analysts get XPO right?
Of the 621 analyst price targets on XPO set from 2019 until a year ago, 80.7% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 12.1 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 70 days. The median target sat 18.7% above the share price on the day it was set.
Where analysts said XPO would be by now: a year ago, 14 analysts had a price target on XPO, and the median of their latest targets was $156.50. On Oct 20, 2026 XPO closed at $186.71, 19.3% above it.
80.7%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
70 daysmedian time to reach a target
+19.3%price now vs the median target set a year ago
| After | Calls | Move on the call | 3 months vs S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upgrades of XPO | 18 | +0.6% | +9.9% |
| Upgrades, all stocks | 11,514 | +2.5% | +3.4% |
| Downgrades of XPO | 23 | −0.8% | +9.5% |
| Downgrades, all stocks | 10,700 | −3.0% | −1.6% |
The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on XPO through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?
How XPO moves after earnings
XPO beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 10 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 8.5% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 9 of the 12 reports. In 3 of the 12 beats the stock still fell.
12/12earnings beats
±8.5%average move per report
9/12reports followed by a rise
| Report | EPS vs estimate | Revenue vs estimate | Stock move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 30, 2026 | $1.70 vs $1.48 | +3.4% | +0.8% |
| Apr 30, 2026 | $1.01 vs $0.88 | +2.8% | −0.7% |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.88 vs $0.76 | +2.8% | +13.4% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | $1.07 vs $1.02 | +1.9% | +15.3% |
| Jul 31, 2025 | $1.05 vs $0.99 | −0.3% | −10.2% |
| Apr 30, 2025 | $0.73 vs $0.65 | −5.4% | +6.7% |
| Feb 6, 2025 | $0.89 vs $0.68 | +0.3% | +8.7% |
| Oct 30, 2024 | $1.02 vs $0.91 | +1.6% | +8.5% |
Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings
Where XPO’s revenue comes from
In fiscal 2025 (the year to Dec 31, 2025), XPO’s largest reported region was the United States, with 57.9% of its $8.2 billion revenue. By region: United States 57.9%; France 16.0%; United Kingdom 14.0%; Europe, Excluding France And United Kingdom 10.8%.
By business, the largest segment was Transportation, with 100.0% of $4.7 billion revenue (+0.6% on the year before).
From XPO’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2023 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?
Members of Congress who traded XPO
As of Oct 20, 2026, 5 members of Congress had disclosed 17 trades in XPO (10 buys and 7 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Aug 4, 2025.
| Trade date | Member | Type | Amount |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jul 22, 2025 | Lisa McClain | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| May 5, 2022 | Ro Khanna | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Apr 11, 2022 | Ro Khanna | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Jul 27, 2021 | Susie Lee | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Feb 5, 2020 | Susie Lee | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 15, 2019 | Susie Lee | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Nov 12, 2019 | Susie Lee | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 27, 2019 | Susie Lee | Sale | $1,001–$15,000 |
| Sep 10, 2019 | Susie Lee | Buy | $1,001–$15,000 |
Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades
Are XPO insiders buying or selling?
In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, XPO insiders made no open‑market purchases and 14 sales worth $2.7 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings. The last open‑market purchase on record was on Mar 13, 2025.
After the 17 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, XPO beat the S&P 500 by an average of 33.4 percentage points over the next 12 months; 82% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.
| Date | Insider | Role | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2025 | Bates David J. | Chief Operating Officer | $199,580 |
| Nov 6, 2023 | Frye J Wes | Director | $119,565 |
| Mar 10, 2023 | Frye J Wes | Director | $53,610 |
| May 12, 2020 | Wyshner David B | Chief Financial Officer | $100,695 |
| Sep 10, 2019 | Papastavrou Jason D | Director | $103,703 |
The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?
How much of XPO is sold short?
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 6.75% of XPO’s float was sold short: 7.1 million shares, or 5.9 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 10.57%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so XPO is more heavily shorted than most.
From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks
How many institutions own XPO?
At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 782 institutions reported holding XPO in 13F filings, up 72 from the quarter before and up from 576 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 102.4% of XPO’s shares. In the quarter 436 institutions added to their positions and 215 cut them.
78213F holders
163new positions
86positions closed
102.4%of shares held by 13F filers
Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling
Is XPO diluting shareholders?
XPO’s diluted share count rose 16.7% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 0.8% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a smaller slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.
Stock‑based compensation was $77.0 million in fiscal 2025, 0.9% of revenue. XPO spent $125.0 million buying back shares, a buyback yield of 0.57% of its market value; stock pay equaled 61.6% of the buybacks.
−0.8%share count, 1 year
+16.7%share count, 5 years
0.9%stock pay as % of revenue
0.57%buyback yield
Weighted‑average diluted shares from XPO’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained
XPO financial health scores
In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, XPO’s Altman Z‑score was 3.57, in the safe zone (where 465 of the 794 non‑financial US stocks Exent tracks sit). Its Piotroski F‑score was 8 out of 9; 20% of scored stocks reach 8 or more.
3.57Altman Z‑score: safe zone
8/9Piotroski F‑score
The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?
Which ETFs hold XPO?
As of Oct 20, 2026, 35 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held XPO. Its largest weight is in IJK (iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF), at 1.08% of the fund.
| ETF | Fund | Weight of XPO |
|---|---|---|
| IJK | iShares S&P Mid-Cap 400 Growth ETF | 1.08% |
| IJH | iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF | 0.65% |
| SPMD | State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 400 Mid Cap ETF | 0.64% |
| MDY | State Street SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust | 0.64% |
| IWP | iShares Russell Mid-Cap Growth ETF | 0.63% |
| VBK | Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.56% |
| SCHM | Schwab U.S. Mid-Cap ETF | 0.45% |
| VIS | Vanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF Shares | 0.30% |
Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?
The right benchmark for XPO
Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For XPO that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.
Other industrials stocks
Data and methodology
Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.
Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Check XPO with Exent Gems
Wall Street’s average XPO price target is 20.8% above the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on XPO say now in Exent Gems.
- Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
- Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering XPO are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
- Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.
Frequently asked questions
Yes. XPO returned +1,564% (+32.5% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.
No. As of Oct 20, 2026, XPO (XPO, Inc.) is not one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.
XPO fell −52.8% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.
XPO fell −59.0% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.
XPO fell −46.0% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.
Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, XPO’s Sharpe ratio was 0.69 and its Sortino ratio 1.38, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.
XPO’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 46.5%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 1.91.
Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with XPO over the last 60 months were CRWD (0.00), PANW (0.00), PFE (0.02). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.37 and with gold (GLD) 0.21.
XPO beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 12 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Jul 30, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 10 of 12. The stock moved 8.5% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.
Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 5 members of Congress had disclosed 17 trades in XPO (10 buys and 7 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.
As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 6.75% of XPO’s float was sold short (7.1 million shares, 5.9 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 10.57%.
Yes. XPO’s diluted share count rose 16.7% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 0.8% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.9% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $125.0 million.
What do the best‑ranked analysts say on XPO now?
Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on XPO are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.
See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access
Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.