StocksInsight

PRU Stock vs the S&P 500: Returns, Risk and Crash History

Prudential Financial, Inc., financial services (market value $39.2 billion), an S&P 500 member: how it compared with the S&P 500, how it behaved in every crash since 2008, its risk‑adjusted returns and what analysts said. Data as of Oct 30, 2026.

Published Updated 4 min readHow we research

What changed since Oct 26

Exent re-checks this page every day. Ratings appear 30 days after they are published; the top‑ranked analysts’ calls are not counted here, they are in Gems.

+2 new ratings+17.9% 1‑year return through Oct 30 (was +15.3%)

Key takeaways

  • PRU returned +35.0% over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026 versus +75.9% for the S&P 500: it lagged the index.
  • Its 5-year Sharpe ratio was 0.22 against 0.58 for the S&P 500.
  • Its deepest crisis drawdown was −88.8% in the global financial crisis (2007–09) (S&P 500: −56.5%).
  • Five‑year volatility was 25.9% and beta 0.86.
  • 18 analysts rated it in the past year; 0% of their latest calls were Buy.
  • PRU beat earnings estimates in 7 of its last 12 reports; the stock moved 3.5% on average, up or down, around each report.

What do the best‑ranked analysts on PRU say now? See it in Exent Gems →

Did PRU beat the S&P 500?

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU) returned +35.0% including dividends, versus +75.9% for the S&P 500 (SPY). It lagged the index by 40.9 percentage points, or +6.2% a year against +12.0%.

PeriodPRUS&P 500PRU per yearS&P 500 per yearResult
1 year+17.9%+12.0%+17.9%+12.0%Beat
3 years+47.4%+87.4%+13.8%+23.3%Lagged
5 years+35.0%+75.9%+6.2%+12.0%Lagged
10 years+116.9%+316.3%+8.1%+15.3%Lagged
  • 1 year
    PRU
    +17.9%
    S&P 500
    +12.0%
    PRU per year
    +17.9%
    S&P 500 per year
    +12.0%
    Result
    Beat
  • 3 years
    PRU
    +47.4%
    S&P 500
    +87.4%
    PRU per year
    +13.8%
    S&P 500 per year
    +23.3%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 5 years
    PRU
    +35.0%
    S&P 500
    +75.9%
    PRU per year
    +6.2%
    S&P 500 per year
    +12.0%
    Result
    Lagged
  • 10 years
    PRU
    +116.9%
    S&P 500
    +316.3%
    PRU per year
    +8.1%
    S&P 500 per year
    +15.3%
    Result
    Lagged

Total return with dividends reinvested, from month-end prices to Oct 30, 2026. Beating the index on raw return is only half the story: the next section adjusts for the risk taken. See also how to beat the S&P 500.

PRU is in the S&P 500 (members as of Oct 20, 2026); the list shows every member’s return against the index.

What Wall Street analysts say about PRU

In the 12 months to 30 days ago, 18 analysts published 194 ratings on PRU. Their latest calls were 0% Buy, 76% Hold and 24% Sell. 11 of them rank 4★ or higher in Exent’s analyst scoring, which is based on each analyst’s past price‑target hit rate and returns.

The consensus 12‑month price target was $109.80 (range $92.00–$129.00), −7.2% from the last price. Remember that the average analyst’s target is hit only about half the time: how accurate are price targets?

Top‑ranked analyst coveringFirmStarsPrice‑target hit rate
Paul NewsomePiper Sandler5.0★61.4%
Yaron KinarMizuho Securities4.9★59.4%
Ryan KruegerKBW4.8★60.7%
Suneet KamathJefferies4.8★56.4%
John BarnidgePiper Sandler4.8★56.5%

Ratings are shown with a 30‑day delay. Who the top‑ranked analysts on PRU are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts are in Exent Gems.

The average analyst’s target is reached about 53.1% of the time; Exent Gems is built on the top 50 of Exent’s ranking,where some reached 90% or more over the last two years. Unlock the top 50 analysts.

PRU returns by year vs the S&P 500

PRU beat the S&P 500 in 2 of the 9 full calendar years shown.

YearPRUS&P 500Difference
2026 (to Oct 30, 2026)+7.2%+11.7%−4.5%
2025+0.2%+17.7%−17.5%
2024+19.4%+24.9%−5.5%
2023+10.1%+26.2%−16.1%
2022−3.9%−18.2%+14.3%
2021+45.3%+28.7%+16.6%
2020−11.4%+18.3%−29.7%
2019+20.1%+31.2%−11.1%
2018−26.5%−4.6%−21.9%
2017+13.6%+21.7%−8.1%

PRU risk-adjusted returns: Sharpe, Sortino and volatility

Over 5 years, PRU had a Sharpe ratio of 0.22 against 0.58 for the S&P 500, so it earned less return per unit of risk than the index. Its annualized volatility was 23.8% and its beta 0.86: it tended to move about 0.9× as much as the market.

MetricPRUS&P 500
Annual return+6.2%+12.0%
Volatility (annualized)23.8%15.5%
Sharpe ratio0.220.58
Sortino ratio0.330.91
Max drawdown (month-end)−29.1%−23.9%
Beta to the S&P 5000.861.00

Sharpe divides return above cash by total volatility; Sortino counts only downside volatility. Both use monthly returns and the 1–3 month T‑bill ETF (BIL) as the risk‑free rate.

How PRU behaved in past crashes

PRU’s deepest fall in the crises below was −88.8% in the global financial crisis (2007–09), against −56.5% for the S&P 500. The last column turns that into money: what a $100,000 position would have lost from peak to trough.

CrisisPRUS&P 500Loss on $100,000
Global financial crisis (2007–09)−88.8%−56.5%−$88,830
2018 trade-war selloff−27.5%−20.2%−$27,510
COVID crash (Feb–Mar 2020)−58.2%−34.1%−$58,180
2022 inflation bear market−29.3%−25.4%−$29,330
2025 tariff selloff−17.7%−19.0%−$17,710
WindowPRU max drawdown
Last 1 year−21.5%
Last 3 years−25.7%
Last 5 years−33.1%
Last 10 years−68.9%

Peak‑to‑trough declines from daily prices inside each crisis window. A crash replay does not predict the next crisis; it shows how much room a holding needs. Run the same replay on a whole portfolio with the crash test.

What moves with PRU, and what doesn’t

Correlation runs from −1 (moves opposite) to +1 (moves in lockstep). Over the last 60 months of monthly returns, PRU’s correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.56, with the Nasdaq‑100 0.28, with long Treasuries (TLT) 0.14 and with gold (GLD) −0.11.

Adding a 5% PRU position to an S&P 500 portfolio would have moved its 5‑year volatility from 15.5% to 15.4%.

Least correlated large capsCorrelationMost correlated large capsCorrelation
CRWD−0.01BAC0.79
META−0.01PNC0.74
CDNS−0.01USB0.72
PLTR0.00JPM0.71
AMD0.03WFC0.69

Holdings that are highly correlated behave like one position in a selloff. See how to find hidden overlap.

Latest PRU upgrades, downgrades and price‑target changes

DateRating and targetAnalyst
Oct 21Target cut
Hold
Target $112, was $114
Andrew Kligerman
TD Cowen
Oct 16Target cut
Hold
Target $119, was $123
Ryan Krueger
KBW
Oct 16Target cut
Sell
Target $94, was $96
Alex Scott
Barclays
Oct 12Target cut
Hold
Target $120, was $128
Paul Newsome
Piper Sandler
Oct 12Target cut
Hold
Target $108, was $109
Yaron Kinar
Mizuho Securities
Oct 12Target raised
Hold
Target $132, was $130
Joshua Shanker
Bank of America Securities
Oct 7Target cut
Hold
Target $109, was $113
Yaron Kinar
Mizuho Securities
Oct 7Target raised
Sell
Target $96, was $92
Alex Scott
Barclays

Named analysts’ rating and price‑target changes on PRU in the 5 weeks to Oct 4, 2026, shown 30 days after publication (the free analysts’ calls 3 days after). The top‑ranked analysts’ calls are in Exent Gems. See all of the latest analyst upgrades and downgrades.

Do analysts get PRU right?

Of the 377 analyst price targets on PRU set from 2019 until a year ago, 70.3% were reached within 12 months (data to Oct 20, 2026), 1.7 points above the 68.6% hit rate of the median stock in Exent’s study of 794 stocks. Targets that were reached took a median of 31 days. The median target sat 5.4% above the share price on the day it was set.

Where analysts said PRU would be by now: a year ago, 5 analysts had a price target on PRU, and the median of their latest targets was $118.00. On Oct 20, 2026 PRU closed at $115.22, 2.4% below it.

70.3%of targets reached within 12 monthsMedian stock: 68.6%
31 daysmedian time to reach a target
−2.4%price now vs the median target set a year ago
AfterCallsMove on the call3 months vs S&P 500
Upgrades of PRU9+1.3%−0.5%
Upgrades, all stocks11,514+2.5%+3.4%
Downgrades of PRU22−2.2%+1.2%
Downgrades, all stocks10,700−3.0%−1.6%

The move on the call runs from the close before the rating change to the close after it; the last column is the stock’s return minus the S&P 500’s over the next three months. Averages of rating changes on PRU through Sep 15, 2026; analysts are not named here. Do analyst upgrades move stocks?

How PRU moves after earnings

PRU beat the consensus earnings‑per‑share estimate in 7 of its last 12 quarterly reports, through the one on Aug 4, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. From the close before each report to the close after it, the stock moved 3.5% on average, up or down, against 6.8% for the average report across the 1,002 US stocks Exent tracks. It rose after 6 of the 12 reports. In 3 of the 7 beats the stock still fell.

7/12earnings beats
±3.5%average move per report
6/12reports followed by a rise
ReportEPS vs estimateRevenue vs estimateStock move
Aug 4, 2026$4.08 vs $3.52−1.4%−2.3%
May 5, 2026$3.61 vs $3.09+8.0%+2.6%
Feb 3, 2026$3.30 vs $3.37−1.0%−8.5%
Oct 29, 2025$4.26 vs $3.72+27.0%+1.6%
Jul 30, 2025$3.58 vs $3.22+1.9%+0.1%
Apr 30, 2025$3.29 vs $3.18−6.3%−2.2%
Feb 4, 2025$2.96 vs $3.36−14.2%−4.1%
Oct 30, 2024$3.48 vs $3.47+30.9%−2.2%

Reported earnings per share against the consensus estimate, revenue surprise in percent, and the stock’s price change over the two sessions around the report. How stocks move after earnings

Where PRU’s revenue comes from

In fiscal 2024 (the year to Dec 31, 2024), PRU’s largest reported region was the United States, with 69.0% of its $70.4 billion revenue. By region: United States 69.0%; Japan 19.5%; Non-US 11.5%.

By business, the largest segment was Retirement, with 56.3% of $29.6 billion revenue (−50.0% on the year before).

  • United States69.0%
  • Japan19.5%
  • Non-US11.5%
SegmentRevenueShareGrowth
Retirement$16.7 billion56.3%−50.0%
Group Insurance$6.8 billion22.9%+5.4%
Individual Life$6.1 billion20.7%−1.0%

From PRU’s annual filings; segment growth compares fiscal 2025 with the year before. Regions are as each company reports them, so one company’s “Asia Pacific” is not another’s. China counts the regions a company reports as China, Greater China or Hong Kong; a separately reported Taiwan is not counted. Which S&P 500 companies depend most on China?

Members of Congress who traded PRU

As of Oct 20, 2026, 22 members of Congress had disclosed 63 trades in PRU (33 buys and 30 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate. The latest public trade is dated Apr 23, 2026.

Trade dateMemberTypeAmount
Apr 23, 2026Lloyd SmuckerSale$1,001–$15,000
Mar 27, 2026Alan ArmstrongSale$1,001–$15,000
Feb 10, 2026Gilbert CisnerosSale$1,001–$15,000
Jan 29, 2026Ro KhannaSale$15,001–$50,000
Jan 9, 2026Gilbert CisnerosBuy$1,001–$15,000
Sep 29, 2025Ro KhannaSale$1,001–$15,000
May 12, 2025Jefferson ShreveSale$15,001–$50,000
May 7, 2025Michael RulliSale$1,001–$15,000
Mar 13, 2025Jefferson ShreveBuy$15,001–$50,000
Nov 15, 2024Ro KhannaBuy$1,001–$15,000

Amounts are the ranges members report, not exact values. The STOCK Act gives members up to 45 days to disclose a trade, so trades appear weeks after they are made. See every member’s disclosed trades

Are PRU insiders buying or selling?

In the 12 months to Oct 20, 2026, PRU insiders made 3 open‑market purchases worth $168,841 by 3 insiders and 8 sales worth $9.2 million, according to SEC Form 4 filings.

After the 22 insider purchases of $10,000 or more since 2012, PRU lagged the S&P 500 by an average of 2.7 percentage points over the next 12 months; 32% of them were followed by a beat. Across all 17,865 insider purchases in Exent’s study, the average was +17.2% and the median +1.0% against the index.

Q4 ’24
Q1 ’25
Q2 ’25
Q3 ’25
Q4 ’25
Q1 ’26
Q2 ’26
Q3 ’26
DateInsiderRoleValue
Feb 17, 2026Stoddard Thomas DDirector$25,743
Feb 11, 2026Wolk Joseph JDirector$42,128
Feb 6, 2026Chappuis JacquesExecutive Vice President$100,970
Feb 20, 2025Di Sibio CarmineDirector$22,208
Dec 12, 2024Feeney CarolineExecutive Vice President$13,324

The table lists the latest open‑market purchases on record, leaving out the last 30 days. The chart counts Form 4 purchases and sales by calendar quarter. Purchases are open‑market buys; sales include planned sales under 10b5‑1 trading plans. Do insider buys beat the market?

How much of PRU is sold short?

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.36% of PRU’s float was sold short: 15.0 million shares, or 9.3 days of average trading volume to cover. A year earlier (Oct 15, 2025) it was 1.67%. The median across the 997 US stocks Exent tracks was 4.77%, so PRU is less heavily shorted than most.

  • Apr 30, 20263.60%
  • May 29, 20263.59%
  • Jun 30, 20263.45%
  • Jul 31, 20263.52%
  • Aug 31, 20263.94%
  • Sep 30, 20264.36%

From FINRA short‑interest reports, filed twice a month; the bars show the short share of the float at each month‑end. Days to cover divides the shares short by the average daily volume. The most shorted stocks

How many institutions own PRU?

At the end of Q2 2026 (Jun 30, 2026), 1,474 institutions reported holding PRU in 13F filings, up 60 from the quarter before and up from 1,381 a year earlier. Their reported holdings add up to 68.2% of PRU’s shares. In the quarter 693 institutions added to their positions and 485 cut them.

1,47413F holders
156new positions
103positions closed
68.2%of shares held by 13F filers

Investment managers with over $100 million in US equities file 13F reports within 45 days of each quarter end, so this is the latest complete quarter. Holdings can add up to more than 100% when shares are lent and counted twice. Which stocks institutions are buying and selling

Is PRU diluting shareholders?

PRU’s diluted share count fell 11.6% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 2.6% in fiscal 2025 alone. Each share now owns a larger slice of the company. The median change across the 1,005 US stocks Exent tracks was −0.1%.

PRU spent $1.0 billion buying back shares, a buyback yield of 2.41% of its market value; stock pay equaled 0.0% of the buybacks.

−2.6%share count, 1 year
−11.6%share count, 5 years
0.0%stock pay as % of revenue
2.41%buyback yield

Weighted‑average diluted shares from PRU’s annual income statements; stock‑based compensation and buybacks from its cash‑flow statement. Stock dilution and stock‑based compensation, explained

PRU financial health scores

In Exent’s Oct 20, 2026 snapshot, PRU’s Piotroski F‑score was 9 out of 9; 3% of scored stocks reach 9 or more. The Altman Z‑score is not meaningful for financial services companies, so it is left out.

The Altman Z‑score combines five balance‑sheet and earnings ratios into one bankruptcy‑risk score: below 1.81 is the distress zone, 1.81–2.99 grey, above 2.99 safe. It is not meaningful for banks, insurers and REITs. The Piotroski F‑score counts nine yes/no tests of profitability, leverage and efficiency; 8–9 is strong, 0–2 weak. Both come from the latest annual statements. Which stocks have the highest bankruptcy risk?

What PRU talks about on earnings calls

On its latest earnings call (Aug 7, 2026), PRU’s executives and analysts mentioned AI 4 times, against 1 on the call before (May 6, 2026); the average across 455 S&P 500 calls that quarter was 12.9. Tariffs and recession did not come up.

MentionsAug ’26May ’26Feb ’26Oct ’25
AI4106
AI agents0000
Data centers0000
Tariffs0000
China0000
Recession0000
  • AI
    Aug ’26
    4
    May ’26
    1
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    6
  • AI agents
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Data centers
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Tariffs
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • China
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0
  • Recession
    Aug ’26
    0
    May ’26
    0
    Feb ’26
    0
    Oct ’25
    0

Word counts in the full transcript of each call, prepared remarks and Q&A, newest first. “AI” also counts generative AI and large language models; “AI agents” counts agentic AI. Which companies talk most about AI?

Which ETFs hold PRU?

As of Oct 20, 2026, 57 of the 304 ETFs Exent tracks held PRU. Its largest weight is in DVY (iShares Select Dividend ETF), at 2.13% of the fund.

ETFFundWeight of PRU
DVYiShares Select Dividend ETF2.13%
FDVVFidelity High Dividend ETF1.44%
FDLFirst Trust Morningstar Dividend Leaders Index Fund1.17%
FGDFirst Trust Dow Jones Global Select Dividend Index Fund1.06%
VOEVanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund0.67%
XLFState Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF0.51%
VFHVanguard Financials Index Fund0.47%
IWSiShares Russell Mid-Cap Value ETF0.39%

Owning several of these funds stacks the same position. How much do VOO, QQQ and VTI overlap?

The right benchmark for PRU

Exent matches every holding to the index with the most similar risk. For PRU that is SPY (the S&P 500). Comparing a holding with an index that carries very different risk makes good results look bad and risky ones look clever. Read why the S&P 500 is the wrong benchmark for most portfolios.

Other financial services stocks

TickerName5‑year returnVolatility (5y)
BRK-BBerkshire Hathaway Inc.+89.0%17.1%
JPMJPMorgan Chase & Co.+124.6%24.4%
VVisa Inc.+102.8%22.7%
MAMastercard Incorporated+95.9%23.9%
BACBank of America Corporation+18.3%26.5%
MSMorgan Stanley+110.1%28.6%
GSThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.+144.3%28.6%
WFCWells Fargo & Company+84.1%30.1%

Data and methodology

Returns are total returns from month‑end adjusted closing prices (dividends reinvested) through Oct 30, 2026. Crisis drawdowns and trailing maximum drawdowns use daily prices. Analyst coverage counts ratings published in the last 12 months, shown with a 30‑day delay. Full method: Exent methodology.

Company data as of Oct 20, 2026. The move around an earnings report runs from the close before it to the close after it; a price target counts as hit when the stock closed at or beyond it within 12 months (Exent analyst data). Revenue by region and segment, share counts and executive pay come from company filings; insider trades from SEC Form 4, short interest from FINRA, institutional ownership from 13F filings, Congress trades from STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate, federal contracts from USAspending.gov. Filings from the last 30 days are shown as counts only.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical figures are calculated by Exent from market data and are for education only; they are not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Check PRU with Exent Gems

Wall Street’s average PRU price target is 7.2% below the latest share price. See what the best‑ranked analysts on PRU say now in Exent Gems.

  1. Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their past price‑target hit rate and returns, and keeps the best‑ranked few.
  2. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts covering PRU are, their live calls and the median target of only the top‑rated analysts.
  3. Gems flags the stocks where several top‑ranked analysts agree: a starting point for your own research, not a promise.

Exent is our product. Educational content, not investment advice.

Frequently asked questions

No. PRU returned +116.9% (+8.1% a year) over the 10 years to Oct 30, 2026, versus +316.3% (+15.3% a year) for the S&P 500, including dividends.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, PRU (Prudential Financial, Inc.) is one of the 503 stocks in the S&P 500.

PRU fell −88.8% from peak to trough during the global financial crisis (2007–09), versus −56.5% for the S&P 500.

PRU fell −58.2% from peak to trough during the covid crash (feb–mar 2020), versus −34.1% for the S&P 500.

PRU fell −29.3% from peak to trough during the 2022 inflation bear market, versus −25.4% for the S&P 500.

Over the 5 years to Oct 30, 2026, PRU’s Sharpe ratio was 0.22 and its Sortino ratio 0.33, versus 0.58 and 0.91 for the S&P 500.

PRU’s 5‑year annualized volatility was 25.9%, higher than the S&P 500’s 17.0%, with a beta of 0.86.

Among large US stocks, the lowest correlations with PRU over the last 60 months were CRWD (−0.01), META (−0.01), CDNS (−0.01). Its correlation with long Treasuries (TLT) was 0.14 and with gold (GLD) −0.11.

PRU beat the consensus earnings-per-share estimate in 7 of its last 12 quarterly reports through Aug 4, 2026, and the revenue estimate in 7 of 12. The stock moved 3.5% on average, up or down, from the close before each report to the close after it.

Yes. As of Oct 20, 2026, 22 members of Congress had disclosed 63 trades in PRU (33 buys and 30 sales) in STOCK Act disclosures filed with the House and Senate.

As of the Sep 30, 2026 settlement date, 4.36% of PRU’s float was sold short (15.0 million shares, 9.3 days to cover), according to FINRA short-interest reports. A year earlier it was 1.67%.

No. PRU’s diluted share count fell 11.6% over the five fiscal years to fiscal 2025 and fell 2.6% in the latest year. Stock-based compensation was 0.0% of revenue, and buybacks totaled $1.0 billion.

What do the best‑ranked analysts say on PRU now?

Exent ranks Wall Street analysts by their track record. Gems shows who the top‑ranked analysts on PRU are, their latest calls and the stocks where several of them agree.

See this week’s GemsLimited offer$1.95 for full access· full access

Educational content, not investment advice. Examples are illustrative; past performance does not guarantee future results.

DISCLAIMER: Exent AI is an informational research platform and does not provide investment advice, financial advice, or act as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or fiduciary. All content, analytics, and model outputs are provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Exent AI does not execute trades, hold customer funds, or provide brokerage services. Past performance and hypothetical results are not indicative of future results. Third-party data and AI-generated outputs may be incomplete or inaccurate.